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Reshuffling the draft board

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Posted: Thursday June 01, 2000 03:41 PM

Before I get into my draft chart, handicapping the first round, let me comment briefly on the Keyshawn Johnson trade. I heard the heavy rumblings over the weekend, but up to the end I believed that the Jets would figure out a way to restructure his contract and avoid losing such a big part of their offense. Most valuable player on the team (as many have written)? Uh-uh, I don't buy it. I'd say third most valuable, behind Vinny Testaverde and Curtis Martin. But that's enough.

He had clearly outperformed his contract. The club knew this was coming. Restructuring the package would have been tough, but a capologist with enough savvy would have figured out a way to get it done. Maybe those four draft choices -- and I still think they might trade two of them to move up to one of the premier spots -- will more than cover the loss. Maybe not. Time will tell. I feel that this whole thing is partly a Bill Parcells tantrum, wringing his hands over the disloyalty of a player who had worked his way into the coach's "special player" zone.

I'll spare you most of the heights and weights and 40 times (you can get those by clicking on each player's name) and concentrate on the drafting strategy involved, O.K.?

Got a comment or question for Dr. Z? Click here.

Dr. Z's NFL Mock Draft
1		Cleveland Browns Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
		For a while he was running neck-and-neck with his linebacking teammate, LaVar Arrington, then Brown forged ahead. It's a matter of what the Browns need most, and a winger who's gifted as both a run stopper and pass rusher is a premium need. Right now Brown's agent, Marvin Demoff, and the club are working out the numbers. A serious stumble, which doesn't seem likely, could move Arrington back into the picture. I heard one comment that makes no sense to me: Brown, a quiet, shy guy, will have trouble filling a leadership role but Arrington is well-suited for it. Rookies don't lead veterans. They run coffee and donuts for them.
2		Washington Redskins (from New Orleans) LaVar Arrington, LB, Penn State
		The only problem is where to play him. Strong side, over the tight end, almost seems like a waste, because he moves well in space. But strong side is their area of greater need. And what do you do with him on third down: keep him as a coverage 'backer or put him on the wing as a rusher? It's a lot
3		Washington Redskins (from San Francisco) Chris Samuels, OT, Alabama
		A no-brainer. Plug him into Andy Heck's spot on the left side and keep him there as long as he can handle it.
4		Cincinnati Bengals Peter Warrick, WR, Florida State
		The Bengals have an interesting dilemma. Carl Pickens, their premier wideout, says he won't be back. Corey Dillon, their gifted runner, says he'll play in just enough games (six) to allow the year to count for the pension, and then it's sayonara. Just what you want to hear, right? So which spot do they fill? I guess it's wideout, figuring that Dillon is bluffing, but if they trade him, they'll look for a runner lower down. They're always there. The trick is finding one. If the Bengals confound everyone and go for a running back at pick No. 4, though, I wouldn't be shocked. Which running back? Thomas Jones or Jamal Lewis.
5		Baltimore Ravens (from Atlanta) Jamal Lewis, RB, Tennessee
		The original plan was to go running back-wideout on the first two picks. Then they traded for Denver's No. 10, gambling that the runner they want, Lewis, will be available then and using this pick, No. 5, for Florida State DT Corey Simon, to cover for the substance-abuse suspension of DT Larry Webster. So I penciled in Simon here and started looking at backup choices for the Eagles, who draft next. Then the latest rumor flew in the window, that the Ravens will sign Seattle DT Sam Adams. So I'm keeping Lewis as their pick, and I don't have to worry so much about Philly (see the way this thing works?).
6		Philadelphia Eagles Corey Simon, DT, Florida State
		Very quick and smart. Four shoulder surgeries had everyone scared, then he benched 225 pounds 20 times, which was good enough. If Baltimore beats the Eagles to Simon, then Philly will take wideout Travis Taylor -- or trade out of the spot.
7		Arizona Cardinals Thomas Jones, RB, Virginia
		If they take LB Brian Urlacher, I wouldn't be surprised. At one time their GM, Bob Ferguson, was a guy I used to be able to talk to and trade information with. Now he plays it cute, mentioning one guy, smoke-screening, picking another, etc. The four players he mentioned were Jones, Lewis, Urlacher and wideout Travis Taylor.
8		Pittsburgh Steelers Chad Pennington, QB, Marshall
		Originally I had Denver trading up -- not down, but up -- to Baltimore's No. 5 spot for Pennington. Well, that's off the board now, isn't it? Which left oversized wideout Plaxico Burress for the Steelers. Except that now Pennington is available, and the temptation to take him and give Kordell Stewart some legitimate competition is strictly too great.
9		Chicago Bears Brian Urlacher, LB, New Mexico
		Talked to Dick Jauron. Likes Urlacher and the big wideouts, Plaxico Burress and Travis Taylor. Seems to like Urlacher better. I watched the Senior Bowl again a few days ago and saw a big, agile guy (he's a converted safetyman) who moves well and has a nose for the ball.
10		Baltimore Ravens (from Denver) Plaxico Burress, WR, Michigan State
		I'm hearing the same thing about Burress that I heard about Randy Moss two years ago: Great talent. Will drop the ball on occasion. Weird attitude. The best quote I heard was from an NFL coach who sat near him at the NCAA basketball championship: "He didn't even stand up when they played the Michigan State fight song. And you should have seen the way he was dressed. School stuff, but it was all cut up, with all sorts of frilly things on it." Oh, my. A cross-dresser who doesn't stand up for the fight song. What will they think of next?
11		New York Giants Ron Dayne, RB, Wisconsin
		Some people have given them Shaun Alexander, the Alabama tailback. One of my spies said he attended an Alexander workout and the Giants scouts there went positively nuts over him. Said he looked like the second coming of Marcus Allen. Never heard that comparison made before, mainly because there's a vast difference in toughness. When I asked Jim Fassel, he said Dayne fitted his purposes a lot better; in other words, he wanted a back he could hand the ball to 20 to 25 times a game.
12		San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina through Washington) Keith Bulluck, LB, Syracusee
		Bill Walsh said he might trade down to amass more picks, but who's really calling the shots out there? Steve Mariucci agreed that cornerback is the most pressing need but he felt there would be one at No. 24, when they pick again. Defense is his priority. He likes Bullock and kind of likes another LB, Julian Peterson of Michigan State, and likes DE Shaun Ellis, so I threw the dice and gave him Bulluck, mainly because I was saving the other two for people who really like them. And who are those people? Stay tuned. You'll find out later on (got to keep the folks from switching channels on me).
13		New York Jets (from San Diego through Tampa Bay) Travis Taylor, WR, Florida
		Not quite as big as Keyshawn but big enough at 6'1", 200 pounds, and his speed is better. Not the blocker, of course, but no wideout is. My prediction: When this pick is announced Saturday, the draftniks in the gallery, most of whom traditionally are Jets fans, will boo long and loud. But of course they'll boo any choice in this spot because it cost them Keyshawn.
14		Green Bay Packers Shaun Ellis, DE, Tennessee
		GM Ron Wolf has said all along this is his guy. Fears that he won't be there, though. If he's gone, pencil in DT Chris Hovan, then Bulluck.
15		Denver Broncos (from Baltimore) Sylvester Morris, WR, Jackson State
		Again, the size thing (6'3", 216 pounds). Big wideouts are the blue-plate specials this year. As one scout told me, "Most of your downfield catches are made by big guys outpositioning little cornerbacks." And then he added, "A small receiver gets even smaller the farther he gets downfield." If you're having trouble figuring this one out, put it in the mailbag this week, and we'll have a mini-clinic on the phenomenon. It's kind of like the Doppler Effect we learned in high school physics. (No, it isn't really, but I just wanted to throw that in there to show Mr. Payne that I actually did remember something from his class.)
16		New York Jets (from New England) Bubba Franks, TE, Miami
		The only TE people think merits a first-round pick. Every TV announcer belabors us with the importance of tight ends in an offense, but then they're always picked lower down in the draft. This is a position in which the size-speed equation, the workout performances are not the most accurate gauges, I feel. Much more important is the ability to find the hole in the zone on third down (Jay Novacek) and hold onto any ball that hits your hands (again, Novacek) -- which, of course, will only be discovered when the games start for real.
17		Oakland Raiders John Abraham, LB-DE, South Carolina
		Jon Gruden mentioned Abraham and LB Julian Peterson, who had a big Senior Bowl. "Peterson fits our need better right now," he said, "but Abraham's potential excites me. I like him as a third-down rusher. I like his burst. He's a project but he might be worth it." Well, I saw him in the Senior Bowl, and he didn't do much bursting, but I didn't see the workouts. Do you want to know who was my favorite player in that game? Take a guess. Take another. You'll never hit it. It was John St. Clair, the undersized center from Virginia. Fine run-blocking techniques. Seldom out of position. Yeah, I know, I can hear you yawning out there, and he won't be a first-rounder and maybe not even a second. Centers seldom are picked very high. But just watch this guy. He will make somebody's team and play a long time, if he gets his weight up -- somewhere near the 500-pound range. Just kidding. Somewhere near the 285- to 290-pound range (odd that I have absolutely no problem with that kind of assignment).
18		New York Jets Stockar McDougle, OT, Oklahoma
		Jason Fabini goes to Jumbo Elliott's spot on the left side, and 355-pound Stockyards, make that Stockar, goes to the power side. Al Groh says he likes McDougle's "mean streak," which reminds me of a line by the old Jets defensive end, the undersized Gerry Philbin, about his much-bigger running mate, Verlon Biggs: "If I was as big as Biggs, people would have to pay me to let them live."
19		Seattle Seahawks (from Dallas) Deltha O'Neal, CB, California
		There are wide variances in opinion over whom the 'Hawks want with their two picks, and the order in which they want them. Many differences in opinion, as well, as to how people rate the top three corners. Ahmed Plummer and Rashard Anderson are the other two, and there's no consensus as to which one is better. The 'Hawks' guy is O'Neal, and they'd feel very happy to get their top-rated corner this far down on the board.
20		Detroit Lions Chris McIntosh, OG, Wisconsin
		In order of preference: McIntosh, a college tackle who would be moved inside; Abraham; then defensive ends John Engelberger and Darren Howard. Just know what they tell me, folks.
21		Cleveland Browns (projected trade with Kansas City) Shaun Alexander, RB, Alabama
		I'll tell you how it is. I know the Chiefs want a running back, so on a no-brainer, I penciled in Alexander. Then I started making my calls. Very close to trading with the Bengals for Dillon, one spy told me; this would cost them a No. 1 and a No. 3. Carl Peterson, the Chiefs GM, was willing to give up a 1 and a 5, I was told. Barring that he'd take Alexander or Dayne, whomever was left. So I called Peterson. Cincy trade is dead, he said. He likes Dayne but doesn't like Alexander, he added. Think cornerback, he said. Ahmed Plummer? Rashard Anderson? Could be, he said. "Or I could trade down." "Don't believe any of it," one personnel guy told me. "Julian Peterson is his man." So I checked around with people close to the K.C. scouts. Never, they said, had they heard Peterson's name mentioned. This is called paralysis by analysis, and besides, I'm saving Plummer for San Francisco, where gut instinct tells me he'll end up, and then there's the Alexander phenomenon. How can he fall any lower than this? So given this overload of information, and knowing that the Browns would like to grab a premium runner, I projected them on a trade-up for him, and I'd say it's about a 25-1 shot that I'll be right. But at least it doesn't screw up the rest of my board. It's called a sacrifice pick.
22		Seattle Seahawks Julian Peterson, LB, Michigan State
		The LB position was in shambles last year. They had a shrimp in the middle. Darren Smith on the weak side was pretty decent at times, not great. Chad Brown was out of position on the strong side, seldom playing the spot for which they originally got him, third-down outside rusher. Peterson won't cure it all. They still need a big guy in the middle, but the rookie could play the strong side, freeing Brown for the rush. Another possibility is wideout. I asked Mike Holmgren about it. "Maybe, if I can find one who's really different from the guys I've got." Which means a Joey Galloway-type, a burner. Jerry Porter, Todd Pinkston, Dennis Northcutt, Dez White? Whaddya say, Mike? "I think one of those guys will be available lower down," he said.
23		Carolina Panthers (from Miami) Dwayne Goodrich, CB, Tennessee
		"Offensive line, if McDougle or McIntosh are there," George Seifert said. Sorry, they're gone. "Then cornerback," he said. "O'Neal." Uh, sorry, George, I've got him gone, too, but I can offer you Plummer or Anderson. How about it? "Where do you have Goodrich going?" he said. "To you, George, to you." Nothing as heart-warming as a guy only one team wants, because it unclutters the board.
24		San Francisco 49ers (from Washington) Ahmed Plummer, CB, Ohio State
		He won't be here, of course. He's too good to have lasted this long. Niners love him, but they also like Rashard Anderson. They have to take a corner here.
25		Minnesota Vikings Chris Hovan, DT, Boston College
		Defense all the way, said Dennis Green, and here were the names he gave me, in order: Plummer, Ellis, Hovan, Abraham, Rashard Anderson, John Engelberger, DT Cornelius Griffin of Alabama. Hovan, a good, stout run-plugger, was the highest in that bunch who was still available. And, of course, we all know the Vikings' pick will be none of the above. That's the way it always works out when things are too logical.
26		Buffalo Bills Rashard Anderson, CB-S, Jackson State
		Buffalo's right corner, Tom Smith, is gone. Their free safety, Kurt Schulz, is gone. John Butler, the GM, desperately wants Plummer or O'Neal. Both already chosen, I told him, and he started crying. I handed him a hanky and said Anderson could be there, if the Niners don't take him. He nodded and said he might be O.K. in Schulz's spot.
27		New York Jets (from Tampa Bay) Darren Howard, DE, Kansas State
		What, Jets again? It's enough already. First three picks were for offense, which is unusual since Al Groh is a defensive coach, but now he simply has to go defense, and pass rush is a prime need. Could be John Engelberger, more slender but quicker.
28		Indianapolis Colts Rob Morris, MLB, Brigham Young
		Everyone and his brother has him going here. In the magazine, though, I gave them Howard because Howard's agent, Gary Wichard, told me he talked to Colts director of football operations Dom Anile, who was Gary's head coach when he quarterbacked C.W. Post, and Dom swore to him that Howard would be the pick if he were there. You still with me? O.K., a swear's a swear, and would a former coach lie to his former QB? Hell, no, and I was gonna be smarter than everyone else, see, but then the Jets-Bucs trade screwed up the board, so now I've joined the lowing herd and will give them Morris. And if Howard is the pick, well, you'll see an early afternoon, draft-day suicide.
29		Jacksonville Jaguars Dez White, WR, Georgia Tech
		"Best available athlete," Tom Coughlin told me. So I fed him an old Art Rooney Jr., line: "They're all in the Olympics, but half of them are women and the other half don't like football." Silence. I'm waiting for the laugh that never comes. I could just see him looking at his watch. "Play-maker, game-breaker," Tom said, or maybe it was game-maker, play-breaker (it was getting kind of late and the tiredness factor was kicking in). "How about Dez White?" I asked, only because someone else told me they liked him. "I guess we like him O.K.," he said. And that, friends, is how picks at the 29th position are made.
30		Tennessee Titans Anthony Becht, TE, West Virginia
		Floyd Reese, the GM, likes tackle Todd Wade. "A young Runyan," he said, and in my groggy state I thought he said a young Bunyan, as in Paul Bunyan, until I realized he was talking about his right tackle Jon Runyan, lost via free agency. Glenn Cumbee, the college-scouting director, prefers Becht, though, to give him a 270-pound blocking tight end to make up for Jackie Harris' departure (the Titans run most of their stuff from a two-TE offense, and Frank Wycheck is more of a pass catcher), and keep the edges clean for Eddie George. So who wins it? Beats me. I say Cumbee.
31		St. Louis Rams Adrian Klemm, OT, Hawaii
		Todd Wade is more powerful, Klemm is niftier, and that's whom they say they prefer, and Super Bowl champs don't lie.

 

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