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'Rested' Raiders, Giants have the edge
Never have I seen the opening-round bye advantage kick in to as great an extent as it did last weekend. Part of the reason might be the grueling 16-game season, but that has been around for a while. Whatever the reason, I've never seen such a clear physical superiority shown by the teams that had a chance to rest up. Now that all four teams in the championship round have to come back after playing last weekend, that advantage is scrubbed, or is it? We won't know if there will be a residual effect on Baltimore, the only member of the quartet that has been in action two straight weeks, until the postgame. Minnesota at the Giants is the early matchup. The Vikings breezed over tired, punchless, heavy-legged New Orleans on Saturday in a contest that, basically, was over at the half, definitely over when Randy Moss caught a one-yard hitch on the opening series of the third quarter and sprinted 68 yards for a TD. And then Robert Smith started running through arm tackles. And the biggest tipoff to me that the Saints just didn't have it was that they couldn't run the ball on a defense that had been soft for more than a month. That was the startling thing about the Vikings' operation. They were getting some real action out of a front four that had been asleep. They could rotate six without any dropoff; in fact, I thought the guys they brought in off the bench, John Burrough, and especially Fernando Smith, who'd been unemployed until the Vikes picked him up in late December, were better than the people they relieved. If you would have told me before the game that this group would generate a consistent rush on Aaron Brooks and still pick up the run on the go -- against one of the sturdiest O-lines in the business -- I'd have said you were nuts. Taking nothing away from Minnesota, I still have to chalk some of this off to the lingering tiredness syndrome. Philly-Giants? Well, you'd definitely have to say that New York's defensive coordinator, John Fox, has gotten into the Eagles' heads. No one in the league has as good a read on Philadelphia's operation. Of course, it's the players who make the plays, but Fox's calls -- when to blitz, when to rush three and drop back, and especially when to spy Donovan McNabb with a rookie DT, Cornelius Griffin -- were uncanny. McNabb was a different quarterback than the one the Giants faced earlier in the season, though. Late in the year, his reads were better, as well as his instincts on when to keep motoring and when to pull up and find the open man. Never was that more dramatically displayed than against Tampa Bay in the wild-card playoff, when he seemed to be pulling first downs out of his hat. But it took its toll. Against the Giants I think he lacked that little bit of juice that made him such a running threat. He wasn't really making people miss. Normally, you'd never be able to get away with spying a guy like McNabb with a DT. The whole offense lacked that real spark. Again, tired legs. Defensively, it wasn't as evident, maybe because it's a younger unit, with no starter over 29. The Giants nullified the Eagles' blitzes in the first two contests and picked up close to 400 yards each time. But in this game New York struggled, even though Kerry Collins was extremely sharp, especially on his short, timed passes. I mean, the ball was coming out like a dart. Odd plays did the Eagles in: the 97-yard opening kickoff return, Jason Sehorn's diving interception for a TD. But a guy shouldn't be able to catch a ball on his back, hoist himself up and go all the way for a score -- unless the people on the other team are sleeping. "There was no question that tired legs figured into their offense," Fox said after the game, "but there's something else, too. McNabb's an artificial-turf quarterback. That's the kind of team they have. Get them on our heavy grass and they're just not the same." And can we project that to Sunday's contest against another artificial-turf opponent, Minnesota? Why not? I did a breakdown on the Vikings' big three in the offense, Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Robert Smith on artificial versus natural turf. I was expecting to find dramatic differences, but it was only evident with one guy. With Carter and Smith, little difference. Carter is the kind of old pro who could probably catch the ball under water if he had to, and Smith is a neatly balanced runner but not a guy with those zip-zip moves of a Barry Sanders or a Marshall Faulk. Moss, though, has been a positive killer on turf but kind of ordinary on grass.
The difference -- 12.9 yards per catch and two TDs in the four games on grass, 21.9 YPC and 15 TDs in the 13 games on artificial, counting the playoffs. Average number of catches per game are about the same, 4.75 to 4.62. So what do the Giants have cooked up for Moss? I really hate to follow a storyline that will be beaten to death as the contest approaches, but no one in football can change the complexion of a contest as quickly. Fox likes to do man-vs.-man matchups with his corners, allowing one guy to take the same receiver all over the field when the coverage is basically man, as it was against Philly. Sehorn had Charles Johnson in that game, Dave Thomas had Torrance Small, but you can't compare those receivers to the pair the Giants will face Sunday. And, of course, this more or less applies to base downs, and things change when the Giants go nickel and Emmanuel McDaniel, who has become an excellent cover guy, comes in. Naturally, Fox wouldn't tell me who'd cover whom against the Vikings, or even if the system would hold, or if he'd go with more zone coverages, so I can only guess. I think two guys hold the key: McDaniel and free safety Shaun Williams. Williams has become a monster at the position. Against Jacksonville in Week 17, a game the Giants needed to hold home field throughout the playoffs, he turned the contest single-handedly with a devastating hit on Jimmy Smith that removed the Jags' most dangerous downfield threat from combat early in the game. I was wondering how Fox would have lined 'em up for that one, Sehorn on Smith, I guess, which would have given New York some problems. Sehorn will have big problems with Moss, as well, unless Williams becomes a key factor against a guy who doesn't react well to the rough stuff. I see some kind of combination against Moss, maybe with Williams getting an early jam and then trailing him downfield, and Thomas taking his chances with Carter. The future Hall of Famer has become a little strange this season. Seems like he's always hollering for a flag downfield whenever he misses, or drops a ball, always getting antsy with the guy covering him. A great player, sure, but edgy for some reason. I just don't see the Giants sticking with a heavy dose of zone. Moss is too good at destroying angles. I think Collins will get his yards, although a week ago I'd have figured that he'd make left corner Wasswa Serwanga his pigeon. But Serwanga had a terrific outing against New Orleans, so I don't know whom they'll work on. Running the ball effectively has been rare during these playoffs. Teams can generally stop it by bringing the extra guy up, or by general emotion. My pick: Giants on the heavy natural grass and with my all-pro free safety, Williams, having a career game. I like the Raiders over Baltimore in the late contest. Oakland breezed over Miami last weekend, whipping the worn-down Dolphins in just about every phase of the game. There are a lot of things that puzzle me about this Raiders team, though. Why do they decide to play the tough defense one week and then mess around in the next one? What is James Jett doing on the field? He gets one or two balls thrown to him and for the rest of the time he's invisible. Oh yes, I forgot, he has blazing speed. So do a lot of Olympic athletes, and half of them are women. The Raiders are a one-receiver offense, and even Tim Brown goes through stretches when he'll drop the ball. Granted, Rich Gannon has had a career season, but when I hear the network announcers say that he hasn't had a bad game all year I wonder if they saw his five-for-17 with three picks against the Seahawks, or his 16-for-35 with an intercept against the Chargers. That's right, he'll spray the ball when he's not comfortable, and that could be a problem if the Ravens' defense gets it going. But what Gannon does best is draw a bead on the sticks on third down and run the ball with real purpose and no hesitation when he has to, unlike some of those guys paralyzed by hesitation -- Do I wait for the receiver to clear, do I scramble, do I send out for pizza, and where's that first down marker anyway? I like the Raiders to do enough on offense. I like their defense, which has had some really crummy games against the run, to firm up this time. If they generate the same rush against Trent Dilfer that they got against poor Jay Fiedler, then they'll force the early turnovers and the game will be downhill for them. But how about the Baltimore Dee? I mentioned last week's tired-legs syndrome. Well, the Ravens were the only team that broke the mold. Or did they? The Titans took the opening kickoff and ground out 67 yards on 11 merciless plays and got their TD and ate up almost half of the first period. The Baltimore line was getting knocked off the ball. Even the great Ray Lewis was missing tackles. Aha, I said, in my infinite wisdom, tired legs. Then the freakies started happening. Ravens tight end Shannon Sharpe lines up on the flank, and inside him is wideout Patrick Johnson. They run a little criss-cross, and up the field goes Sharpe, and two Pro Bowl starters, strong safety Blaine Bishop andcorner Samari Rolle, end up staring at each other and the play is good for 56 yards, setting up a TD. The Ravens take heart. Now they have some juice back. Enter the weird battle of the blocked punts and field goals, and some really dumb penalties by the defending AFC champs, and finally, the Ravens putting the game away via two TDs, neither of them of the offensive variety. But if I may digress for a moment, here's one series that really defined the game -- and the Titans -- for me. It's 7-7 early in the third quarter, and Chris Coleman has just blocked a Ravens punt and Tennessee has advanced to the Baltimore five, first down, goal to go. This year the Titans brought in Mike Heimerdinger, an offensive whiz from the high-powered Broncos' staff, to spice up their offense -- Heimerdinger replacing Les Steckel, who went to Tampa Bay to spice up their offense. Pardon me, but I didn't see much change -- or spice -- in either attack. But it's safe to say that this is Heimerdinger's quintessential moment as a coordinator. In a game such as this seven points is very big. You put Dilfer in a catch-up mode. You give life to your team, which has been unsettled by the kicker's screw-ups. Do something, Mike. Give us a great call, something, anything! First play, Eddie George over left guard. Even in the Giants' luncheon room, where I was watching the game, the writers called the play ahead of time, as they were wolfing down their chicken and rice. Two yards. Second down, the rush gets to Steve McNair and he has to throw the ball away. Third and goal from the three. A four-point play. DO SOMETHING! George carries the ball into the absolute heart of the defense, and naturally he's stuffed for zero yards. My god, they played for the field goal! Which they got, thus ending their scoring for the day. Later, after Philly-New York, I was talking about the series with one of the Giants' coaches. Off the record he said the following: "I don't care who they bring in to run the offense, it's still Jeff Fisher's team, his theories, his philosophy. You might see a wrinkle or two, but the character is the same. Just as it's still Tony Dungy's philosophy in Tampa, no matter who's running the offense." Which has little to do with the Ravens-Raiders, of course, but I thought it was an interesting aside. The coaching thing is fascinating in Baltimore as well. Brian Billick, the great offensive genius -- and he'll be the first to tell you -- put a team on the field against Tennessee that had six first downs and gained 134 yards on 43 plays, against the opponent's 81 snaps. A unit quarterbacked by Dilfer, a bargain-basement Bucs reject, who went five-for-16 passing. The reason why the Ravens are where they are is just as much Marvin Lewis' scheme as his players, who are good but not, except for two or three guys, great. The defense vs. offense overbalance has taken them this far, and to their credit, they're a spirited, opportunistic club. But I think Oakland is where it ends. Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and CNNSI.com. His "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on CNNSI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z, click here. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.
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