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Draft nix

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Ethnological query: In what area of the world is population explosion most rampant?

Answer: In the area of NFL mock drafts.

They're spawning, folks. Twenty-eight years ago there was one. It appeared in the New York Post and assigned each team a player in the first round. Until then there were charts showing "general needs" (I served under him in Germany), by position, for the drafting clubs. But then this young writer asked his editor if it would be OK for him to go one-team, one-player, and he said OK, and thus the whole mock draft thing began.

A couple of years later the other New York papers followed suit. The football writers around the country jumped aboard. Then the magazines, tout sheets, draftnik digests, etc. And now, turning the whole mob of mock drafts into a geometric progression, we've got the updates. A January draft, followed by one in February, March, early April, mid-April, and the morning of the draft itself. Next thing we'll have is Vegas putting out an early and late line on the whole drafting process.

It gets you dizzy. At last year's draft I sat with Pro Football Weekly's draftnik, Joel Buchsbaum, for a while. A guy was drafted and he celebrated. "Hey, you didn't have him," I said, producing his Tuesday list. "Oh yes, I did, in my update," he said, flashing his Friday special.

You know something? You can update yourself right into the loony bin. Paralysis by analysis, it's called. Also known as the gluephone syndrome, when the phone becomes permanently glued to your ear for the latest updates.

I picked my mock draft last weekend. I said to myself that, unless a guy gets hit by a car, I'm not updating. Screw it. Then, uh, serious information started pouring in. DT Gerard Warren, Arizona's projected choice with the second pick, no longer seems to care about making a good impression on people. OT Leonard Davis now casts a 6-foot-6, 370-pound shadow over the Cardinals' board. Which removes him from Cincy, which must now go with OT Kenyatta Walker, whom I had Tampa Bay trading up for. Meanwhile Warren slides, thereby messing up my original Nos. 6 and 7 picks. So guess what? I've updated. I mean heavily. Here's my revised chart:

Dr. Z's NFL Mock Draft
1		San Diego Chargers Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
		Rumors abound that they actually might not take him, but no one has, as yet, come up with a different name. This is the one unanimous pick on the board.
2		Arizona Cardinals Leonard Davis, T, Texas
		Last week GM Bob Ferguson was leaning toward Warren, but since then the guy has taken a header (that's Warren, not Fergie). Many rumors about his lack of dedication. Gotten too fat, they say. Last week, when I mentioned Davis to Ferguson he said they were happy with the pair of tackles they had, whereas their defensive line was a shambles. Things change.
3		Cleveland Browns (from San Francisco) LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, TCU
		First you look at his numbers; 221 pounds with a 40 in the high 4.3's. But he's not just a workout warrior. He showed some real moves and toughness in the Senior Bowl, Clearly the stickout of the running back class. New coach Butch Davis, when I talked to him, said Tomlinson "could be another Emmitt Smith." Which means that Butch expects him to break the NFL's all-time rushing record, assuming Smith will catch Walter Payton. Pretty tall order for a guy who has yet to take a handoff in the NFL, but it's enough to lead you to assume that the coach feels that this will be his selection, wouldn't you say? Well, I would, but here come the rumors. David Terrell, the wideout, will be the Browns' No. 1. Huh? Decent wideouts can be had lower down. They're always around. But a runner like Tomlinson? Uh uh. Rumor No. 2: a Browns scout swore to another NFL scout that Davis simply loves MLB Dan Morgan, whom he coached at the U. of Miami. I'm not saying that this absolutely couldn't happen, but it would be a pick that would come back to haunt the Browns.
4		Cincinnati Bengals Kenyatta Walker, T, Florida
		They need a left tackle. Davis was their first choice, Walker will do.
5		Atlanta Falcons Justin Smith, DE, Missouri
		Do they go for the edge rusher or the wideout, i.e. Terrell? Defense, says their scouting department.
6		New England Patriots Gerard Warren, DT, Florida
		Bill Belichick gave Terrell a long look last week. He liked him well enough to rate him the frontrunner at the spot. But he didn't figure that Warren would do a late slide. I asked him how he felt about an offensive tackle, perhaps one of the Michigan guys, Backus or Hutchinson. He said he was OK with his projected starters, Adrian Klemm, an injured rookie last year, and Greg Robinson-Randal, who's, well, just a guy. In the old days, I would have tried to lobby for a tackle, or I even might have drafted one for him, based on pure logic, but that's when I didn't quite understand this game. I've learned through bitter experience that if someone likes a player, close the book on it.
7		Seattle Seahawks (from Dallas) David Terrell, WR, Michigan
		The early reading was Terrell, if he were there, or N.C. State wideout Koren Robinson, who has something of an attitiude problem, which would be cured by Mike Holmgren signing Jerry Rice to babysit the kid, much as Cris Carter does with Randy Moss. But Holmgren, figuring, I'm sure, that Terrell would be long gone, said defensive line, with his favorite CB, Nate Clements, hopefully still available on his second pick, at No. 17. But hadn't he just signed John Randle and Chad Eaton ? "I never want to be caught short on the defensive line again," Holmgren said. The guy he liked was a shocker, Texas DT Shaun Rogers, a relentless competitor who played on a bad ankle all last season. So I wrote in Rogers on my preliminary ballot. Then the word got out that a screw fell out of Rogers' ankle and further surgery would be needed and, ain't it a shame, the guy was now a lower-round projection. Clearly another call had to be made. But I was on my way to the dentist. I placed the call anyway, and gave a callback number, and left my wife with these instructions: WHEN HOLMGREN CALLS, ASK HIM IF HE STILL LIKES ROGERS, AND IF HE SAYS NO, ASK HIM IF IT'S SEYMOUR OR STROUD OR SOMEONE ELSE. Now your run-of-the-mill suburban housewife would have thrown up her hands (or just thrown up) and said something like, "How in the world am I expected to ..." but, nosir, that ain't my Flaming Redhead. She loves the action. When I returned, her note said, in her beautiful, calligraphic, artistic script, "Not Rogers, Damione Lewis." This story has an unhappy ending. I'm going against all this to predict that as the moment approaches, the Terrell pick will just be too seductive to pass up.
8		Chicago Bears Andre Carter, DE, Cal
		DT Richard Seymour is a definite possibility. So is the edge rusher, Jamal Reynolds. They're intrigued with RB Michael Bennett's potential and "raw speed" (I prefer cooked speed. It takes effect quicker). Carter is in their mix. As you can see, this is not a pick I'm completely comfortable with.
9		Tampa Bay Buccaneers (projected trade with San Francisco) Steve Hutchinson, G/T, Michigan
		Trading down for extra picks traditionally has been the Niners' style. They're gambling that the guy they want, running back Deuce McAllister, will be available lower down. Meanwhile the Bucs, desperate for a left tackle, get the guy they were hoping for. Tony Dungy said he wanted to trade up but "I don't have the firepower to get up really high; I could probably go around 10th or 11th." He added that if he winds up with his guy, he'll buy me a cigar. Last time I heard that was from Jets coach Richie Kotite in 1995. He said that if Warren Sapp were available on his ninth pick he'd grab him. "I'll buy you a cigar if I don't," he said. Sapp was available. The Jets drafted Kyle Brady. I'm still waiting for the cigar. The only thing that can destroy my carefully crafted Bucs-Niners scenario is if the Niners go for the linebacker, Morgan, whom they're nuts about.
10		Green Bay Packers (from Seattle) Koren Robinson, WR, N.C. State
		Best available D-lineman, i.e., Seymour, a possibility, but the scouts are intrigued with Robinson, who has great ability but also, and here comes that phrase again, has an "attitude problem." What does this mean, actually? Gives the scouts the curled lip and back-of-the-hand treatment, won't work out on command, generally acts like he has it made. Those in his corner say, "Oh, he's just young." His detractors tell you they simply wouldn't want him around. "I sat across the table from him," one personnel director told me. "Had four earrings and played with them the whole time and wouldn't make eye contact." "Why didn't you make ear contact?" I asked, a weak attempt at a ha-ha that only one member of the conversation thought was funny.
11		Carolina Panthers Carolina, Dan Morgan, MLB, Miami
		Jack Bushofsky, their player personnel director, basically told me to take a hike, I ain't tellin' you nothing. George Seifert mentioned a lot of names and positions. This is a grapevine pick. Friends of the Carolina people say they're nuts about this sturdy plugger.
12		St. Louis Rams (projected trade with Kansas City) Marcus Stroud, DT, Georgia
		QB Trent Green goes to Kansas City for a No.1 plus what??? Mike Martz and the Chiefs' Dick Vermeil, his former boss, would make this deal in a minute, but K.C.'s GM, Carl Peterson, is putting the squeeze to St. Looie, trying to get the price down. The deal will be made on draft day as the clock is running down. The Rams need D-line help. Stroud was, technically, the most sound of all the up front guys I saw in the Senior Bowl, a really functional run-stuffer, which is perfect for St. Louis. Reynolds, the outside guy, is a possibility, but I'm saving him for the Bills, whom I know love him.
13		Jacksonville Jaguars Maurice Williams, T, Michigan
		They have no right tackle, after both Leon Searcy and Todd Fordham departed. Williams has unlimited potential, while the other Michigan tackle, Jeff Backus, has a slight edge right now, but he played on the left side, Williams on the right. See how specialized this thing has become?
14		Buffalo Bills Jamal Reynolds, DE, Florida State
		He'll man the spot vacated by Marcellus Wiley, who got big bucks in San Diego. Hutchinson is their No. 2 choice. If they're both gone, then the Bills could go with Clements. Hey, guess what? No corners are gone yet.
15		Washington Redskins Chris Chambers, WR, Wisconsin
		Two wideouts have departed. The Skins picked up Kevin Lockett as a possession receiver, but they need a burner. Marty Schottenheimer feels that Michael Westbrook is unreliable, with his injury history. The coach favors the deep threat with 4.4 speed. The scouts prefer Clemson's Rod Gardner, bigger and more sound but not in Chambers' class as a long-range receiver. And so the argument goes on. "Honestly, I don't know which way to go," Marty said. I told him to go with his heart, make his own choice, to thine own self be true, etc. I sure am free with advice when I've got nothing riding on it.
16		Pittsburgh Steelers Richard Seymour, DT, Georgia
		They gave me a list of defensive backs and linemen. Hey, looky here, Seymour hasn't been picked. Of course I just know he'll be gone before No. 16, but I can't let him hang around any longer.
17		Seattle Seahawks (from Green Bay) Nate Clements, CB, Ohio State
		Hooray, he's still there.
18		Detroit Lions Jeff Backus, T, Michigan
		Matt Millen likes all three Michigan offensive linemen, Backus best of all -- for now. "In three years Maurice Williams, the other tackle, will be better than any of them," Millen says, "and if I had any guts, I'd go get him. Ah, the hell with it. Put down Backus."
19		New York Jets Santana Moss, WR, Miami
		Strictly for punt returns. "He won't really be there, will he?" rookie coach Herman Edwards says. Yes, he will, at least on my board. "In that case, this'll be the quickest pick of the day."
20		St. Louis Rams Shaun Rogers, DT, Texas
		What, another D-lineman? "I'd take three of them in the first round, if I could," Martz says. "Frankly, we stunk there." They're gambling, of course, that Rogers will be ready sometime in the near future.
21		San Francisco (from Tampa Bay) Deuce McAllister, RB, Mississippi
		Speedy, but not tough enough, say the scouts who don't like him. But there were knocks on Charlie Garner, too, and he had two terrific years for the Niners, behind a hardly-knock-'em-dead O-line. The club couldn't afford to re-sign him, though, thanks to the $18 million it paid to keep RT Scott Gragg happy.
22		Indianapolis Colts Kenny Lucas, CB, Mississippi
		In a vague way, GM Bill Polian gave me a list of acceptable defensive players. Clements and DT Damione Lewis, of course. How about the corners, Freddie Smoot and Willie Middlebrooks, and Will Allen and Jamar Fletcher? Well, I've got serious takers here -- New Orleans, Minnesota, Denver and St. Louis, respectively -- and I don't want to disappoint them. Sounds weird, doesn't it, but in my book, definite beats vague. I know Jim Mora likes Lucas. This is what is known as a throwaway pick.
23		New Orleans Saints Fred Smoot, CB, Mississippi State
		Jim Haslett simply can't wait to get his hands on this feisty little guy. He loves the practice-field action that a Smoot vs. Joe Horn matchup will generate.
24		Denver Broncos Will Allen, CB, Syracuse
		There's a run on corners, better grab one quickly. The Broncos' cupboard is bare in this area.
25		Philadelphia Eagles Rod Gardner, WR, Clemson
		Tom Modrak always has been a straight shooter as far as draft needs are concerned, and he's got Gardner way above the other wideouts remaining on his board. A big-league receiver for Donovan McNabb could move this young, hungry team onto the next level of the playoffs.
26		Miami Dolphins Drew Brees, QB, Purdue
		I honestly don't think he'll last this long. Some team that's been mentioning every position except QB will grab him on an early pick and everyone will gasp and say, "Gee, we never figured him to go there ." Too productive to drop this far, but so was Dan Marino and the Dolphins stole him on the 27th pick, remember?
27		Minnesota Vikings Willie Middlebrooks, CB, Minnesota
		At the league meetings, I popped the question to Dennis Green, and without hesitation he said Allen or Middlebrooks. If they're both gone he could give it a shot with Michael Bennett, the running back, but I think he secretly feels that Robert Smith will unretire and come back.
28		Oakland Raiders Alge Crumpler, TE, North Carolina
		No one ever guesses the Raiders correctly for the simple reason that they have perfected the art of lying. Jon Gruden is new at the game, though, so just maybe ... At any rate he said tight end, and he said he liked Crumpler better than the other highly rated guy at the position, Todd Heap, so here we go again. This here's a pea, son, and it's going to be under one of these shells, and all you have to do is guess which one, see? The problem with all this nonsense is that it screws up the rest of your board.
29		St. Louis Rams (from Tennessee) Jamar Fletcher, CB, Wisconsin
		Nope, it won't be three D-linemen after all. There's a dropoff in quality among the next group. But Fletcher is still in the top echelon of corners.
30		New York Giants Todd Heap, TE, Arizona State
		They like Allen, they like Crumpler, they like Heap. Process of elimination decides the choice.
31		Baltimore Ravens Freddie Mitchell, WR, UCLA
		These are the four names they figure they have a shot at with this pick. In order -- Moss, Crumpler, Mitchell and Adam Archuleta, the sensationally athletic linebacker-turned-safetyman from Arizona State. The consensus pick among the draftniks is Dominic Raiola, the Nebraska center, and it makes sense, but so does Mitchell, and besides, I don't go against what people tell me, make that some people.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and CNNSI.com. His "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on CNNSI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z, click here.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.

 

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