 |
| |
|
 |
 |
 |
Dr. Z's Forecast Posted: Wednesday December 26, 2001 3:13 PMUpdated: Thursday December 27, 2001 8:51 AM
The question, as we try to handicap this most difficult of weeks, is what do we do about the Tennessee Syndrome? Briefly stated, the Tennessee Syndrome is: Titans 13, Raiders 10. The Titans were out of the playoff picture when they journeyed to Oakland last Saturday night, or at least they were on the verge of being out of it. The Raiders had clinched the AFC West and were in the hunt for a higher playoff seeding, which would mean more and better home games in the postseason, plus the blessed bye. Coaches hammer at these incentives. They are motivational weapons. "Let's win it for SEED!" "Win it for the BYE!" The players yawn. Hey, we've won our division. Leave us alone already. OK, you laugh. There goes the doc, overstating things as usual. But how else do you account for Tennessee 13, Oakland 10? Well, you can play psychologist-handicapper and try to figure who goes into a contest with more to gain and lose. Or you can guess which team has packed it in for the season and is ready to roll over; that's harder to do. I mean, who would have figured that the Saints, in a crucial contest, would have gone doggo against the Bucs? Or you could just judge the game and its participants strictly by the merit system and disregard the incentives. I have tried every method. The results, through the years, are about even, except in the case of a team with a history of underperforming after it's clinched, and that brings us again to the Raiders. The Broncos host the Raiders, who are in about the same position they were last week -- except that now they are faced with the very real chance of dropping from second to third seed, which would mean no bye in the first round of the playoffs. More incentive for the Raiders, right? Yet they are not favored in this contest, which popped my eyes open when I saw the spread. What could the oddsmakers be thinking? Well, Oakland has dropped its last six in Denver. The Raiders still could be on cruise control. Mike Shanahan would like nothing better than to knock Oakland down a notch in the seedings. Brian Griese should be back for the Broncos, but this is his wideout corps, once you get past Rod Smith -- Kevin Kasper, Chris Cole and Scottie Montgomery. Sounds like the grouping for the first tee at St. Andrews. Ah, but the Broncos can still run the ball. And at one time the Raiders were soft in the old ground defense, remember? And Sebastian Janikowski, whose three missed field goals, blew the Titans game, mentions a sore groin. And while the thin air in Denver will increase a kicker's range, the windy conditions will exaggerate anything off target. I'm picking Denver for no logical reason except that the Raiders should be favored and they're not. I've been distracted into neglecting the day's more crucial contests. Giants at Philly: New York must win this one and then its finale against Green Bay to have a shot at anything. The Eagles can sew up the division with a victory, but even if they lose, they can still capture the title by beating Tampa Bay next week. The Giants have won back-to-back games on last-minute drives. On Sunday the thrill is gone as the Eagles defense rises up and gets a late-game pick. And they're our pick, too. We've got four big ones on Saturday: the Motor City Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Insight.com Bowl and Defense Bowl, featuring Baltimore and Tampa Bay. We'll concentrate on the last one. Both teams are battling for a wild-card spot. Both of them are out of their division-title races. Forget the 48 points the Bucs ran up on New Orleans. That was an aberration. Forget Mike Alstott's 101 yards. If they try to make him the focal figure against that Ravens defense, Brad Johnson will find himself in a lot of third-and-longs. So how do the Bucs get it going on offense? Flank Warrick Dunn, or stick him in the slot, and get him downfield. The Ravens defense was shoved around by the Steelers two weeks, and it has a few strange faces in it, but it'll be smoking on Saturday night and ready to eat up anything of a conventional nature. Turnovers will decide it. I'm not wild about Johnson vs. Baltimore, defensively, but I like this matchup better than Elvis Grbac against a Bucs defense that destroyed New Orleans and can be quite effective on its home turf. Tampa Bay wins it with at least five sacks and two forced fumbles, plus a pick or two. The Jets, Miami and New England, each with five losses, are thrashing around atop the AFC East, the Patriots being the only member of this threesome that's already clinched a wild-card spot. Ho-hum, Jets beat Bills, Dolphins beat Falcons (although Chris Chandler can light it up against anybody), and Pats escape their bye week without a loss. Chicago at Detroit is more interesting than it appears on first glance. The Lions lost by three in Chicago earlier this month. They feel that they should have won. Chicago clinched a playoff berth two weeks ago, got a scare from Washington last week, and should be ready to go back to the business of battling Green Bay (which will be in the process of murdering Minnesota) for the division lead. A loss in Detroit would leave the teams tied (if Green Bay wins, which it will) and would knock Chicago down from NFC Central leader to probable wild card. Whew, lots to play for here. Dire consequences if the Bears lose. Icy fingers on the throat, etc. And the Lions will be loose and relaxed, but with an injured quarterback. The line on this game has been steadily dropping. Am I making too much of all this? I think so. Chicago to win it, but you never know. Seattle, still alive but just barely, is at San Diego, with its QB problems and a coach who might return/not want to return/get fired. Chargers are favored, but Seattle played hard on the road against the Giants last week, and has won three of its last four at San Diego. By the time the 'Hawks take the field for the late game they'll pretty well know their fate. If two of the following three -- Jets, Ravens, Dolphins -- win, then Seattle is out of it, and it'll just be mailing it in against the Chargers, and then I'll give the game to San Diego. But should all three lose, then the 'Hawks will be bright of eye and fleet of foot, and they'll beat San Diego. Is this too complicated? It's an if pick. Finally, New Orleans hosts the Redskins in an 8:30 p.m. start. The Saints are mathematically alive for the final NFC wild-card spot, but by kickoff I think they'll be eliminated, as the Bucs win and the Falcons fall. Nevertheless, this is a team that's falling apart, while the 'Skins are playing hard. Washington wins it in an upset.
|
