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Passing fancy Is the NFL abandoning the long ball?Posted: Wednesday October 09, 2002 6:03 PM
Where has the long ball gone? "Isn't it still the same size?" my wife asks, and I will ignore the heckling because I have a really remarkable statistic for you. Sometimes you stumble onto something like this strictly by accident, which is what happened in this case. Here is the statistic: Of the 21 receivers who averaged 15 yards or more per catch last year, using 40 as the minimum number of catches (85 receivers had at least that many), guess how many of them are above that average this season? Answer, one. Rod Gardner of Washington. And one, Derrick Mason of Tennessee, is tied. This statistic is so unusual that I've drawn up a chart in its honor:
I made a few calls around the league to see if some of the deep thinkers could provide a few answers. "New quarterback or new coach ... not comfortable in new system yet," was a popular reason. Well, maybe a few here and there, but in the case of guys like Price of Buffalo or Morton of K.C., the changes should have benefitted them. "Weaker offensive lines ... the guys can't hold their blocks long enough to get a downfield game going," was another answer. I don't buy this. Offensive lines started losing their continuity years ago, with the advent of free agency. No, I think the phenomenon is in some cases by design. Overall, NFL quarterbacks are completing 61 percent of their passes, the highest percentage in history. Yet those completions are only good for 10.5 yards apiece, a full yard lower than last year's number. Is this enough to cause such a dramatic drop in the yards per catch of some people, such as Moss and Bruce and Schroeder? Probably not, but it helps. The game is moving more toward high-percentage, low-risk passing, which means shorter passing, the five-yard hitch, the four-yard checkdown, that kind of stuff. I hate to say that it represents a dulling out of what used to be an exciting part of the game, since all we've been hearing is how the scoring is up, but if you analyze that scoring I think you'll find that much of it has come on returns and on defense. The average NFL team has called 37 pass plays per game this season (counting sacks), the most ever. But teams are getting less bang for the buck. None of my theories are absolute, though, and if any of you thoughtful e-mailers out there would care to offer your ideas, I would be most ready to listen to them.
A few notes after five weeks. An innovative play that seems to be the blue plate special in the college games I've seen, and which someone might try in the NFL -- but not too often -- is the quarterback counter. He fakes a handoff one way, then carries into the line the other way. I've seen it break for decent yardage, but in the NFL too much of it would break only one thing and that's the QB. Last year at this time everyone said Kordell Stewart had turned the corner and Vince Testaverde was leading the AFC in passer rating and Daunte Culpepper was doing OK, too. Now they're all in the dumper. The message is clear: A quarterback has to have all the right stuff around him, and that includes defense and a running game and a functional offensive line, in order to survive. Kordell, in his career, has been benched for Mike Tomczak, Kent Graham and now Tommy Maddox. I wonder who'll be the next one. Vince Evans, maybe? Why is innovation so hated in the NFL? Why so few fake field goals? How come no two-point conversions off of fake extra points? How about the hook and ladder, and variations thereof, at the end of catch-up games, or something, anything, but the Hail Mary? Well, Chicago tried a weirdie against the Packers, a loaded-left formation, then a pitchout to linebacker Brian Urlacher, who tried to throw to the snapper, cutting across the field. The Packers stuffed it and everyone got a good laugh. Well, I didn't laugh, but it's the fear of ridicule that keeps 'em buttoned up. It might be my imagination, and I'd have to research it, but it just seems that in the old days the backup quarterbacks were a whole lot better than the guys they have now ... I've watched last year's best defensive lineman, Michael Strahan, every week and I have yet to see him do anything. Big renegotiated contract in the offseason. Big flap about it. I hate to hang it on this, because it's such a traditional management position, but it makes you wonder. Monday Night Football is better than it was last year because John Madden is at least a guy who's made his living from the game instead of from stand-up comedy. But I wish he'd pay a bit more attention. In the Packers-Bears game he had the wrong receiver catching the 85-yard TD to Donald Driver, beating what he called a two-deep zone when it was actually a man-to-man on the other side of the field, and that was on the telestrator, after a timeout when he had time to get the thing right. In the Rams-Bucs contest he laid some of the blame on St. Louis right tackle John St. Clair when he'd been replaced by Grant Williams two series before that. But he's still better than Dennis Miller, remember him?
Some things in football puzzle me. Why do I keep seeing the offensive tackle turn inside to double-team the DT and leave the DE unblocked, generally resulting in a sack or a hurry or a knockdown of the QB? One coach told me that it was usually on a three-step drop and the quarterback was supposed to get the ball off before the rusher could arrive. Not in the games I saw. Another, more complicated reason I heard was that it was to give the secondary a false read, so that it would think a running play was coming. That made no sense at all. Right, they have a false read and meanwhile the QB's in intensive care. The easy answer is that the tackle just screwed up, but how can you just leave your man unblocked? Always looking for sleepers. Have you seen Seattle's rookie DT Rocky Bernard? A real hell-raiser. Supposedly, he'll sit when John Randle returns. I can't believe it. ... The Hawks also have two of the best special teams coverage guys I've seen, Tim Terry, a linebacker, and Alex Bannister, a wide receiver. ... The run doesn't set up the pass these days. It's the other way around. Teams come out throwing, and the effective running usually comes later, after the defenders have lost a bit of their zip. Case in point: The Raiders threw the ball 20 times in the first half of their rout of Tennessee and ran the ball seven times. In the second half they could do what they wanted. Don't ever believe coaches' pregame promises. All week before the Jacksonville game, the Jets' Herman Edwards told everyone that they had to get the ground game going, play smashmouth football, etc. First six plays they called, five passes. ... The Bears have been crippled by injuries, and the worst part of it is that they've happened to younger players. "Those are the ones that killed them," one personnel man told me. "Ted Washington's injury was predictable, and they prepared for that by having Alfonso Boone ready, but what you can't get ready for is getting guys like Holdman and McQuarters and now Tucker and Terrell hurt ..." I believe that the Patriots have lost a grain of toughness because of all the throwing they did in the early going. It softens your team, it adds a soft feel to your practices. ... Now I'm hearing knocks on the Rams' defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith, a hero last year. The party line is that the defense was a mirage and it was only good because everyone was playing catch-up against the Greatest Show. And, as always, the ones who are ripping are the same ones who were doing all the gushing last season. ... Best TV analysis I've heard so far: Bill Parcells on the ESPN pregame show on Sundays. Everything he says makes sense. Green Bay's Ahman Green running out the clock in the dying moments of the Bears game, with the pack leading by 13, makes no sense to me. He carried 27 times on the night. Why risk getting him hurt? ... Just as senseless is a team calling timeouts when the opposing QB is in the kneel mode at the end of a blowout. I guess, in some spirit of morale or something, you're still supposed to wave the sword feebly after the battle is over. I once asked Sam Rutigliano, the old Browns coach, about this. "The hell with them," he said. "Screw 'em. Make 'em wait before they get to their locker room." This is what I want to hear from a coach before the Grim Reaper claims me: "We've got to get more mental out there." Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z's Mailbag, click here.
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