Misfortune teller

This playoff preview leaves plenty of teams by the wayside

A couple of faithful disciples, Matt of Asheville, N.C., and Dave of Minneapolis, want me to take them down the stretch and into the playoffs ... who'll be hot and who will not? I've always felt that you do your predicting in the preseason and stick with it. I hate all these revisions, midseason, late-midseason, pre-playoffs, etc. End grumpiness. Now I'll tell you exactly what will happen. The Raiders will fade. So will Miami, which will get impatient waiting for the return of Jay Fiedler and will push some buttons they shouldn't. Steve Beuerlein will do just fine for the Broncos -- for about a quarter, until people figure out that it's a good idea to blitz him, and then he'll be about as effective as me trying to escape a traffic cop on Route 46. Philly will go belly up under Koy Detmer. Turnovers will bury the Steelers. The Colts' defense will crack. San Diego will revert to its soft zone and get overrun. The Chiefs' defense will suddenly turn functional, but the offense will show deep cracks. Injuries will force the Giants to suit up their jayvees. Tampa Bay, spooked by the cold-weather jinx, will blow its crucial final game in frosty Champaign ... I mean the place the Bears play in, you know. Michael Vick will run out of running room, and down will go the Falcons. Upsets will plague the Packers. That leaves the 49ers. They'll win it all. I hope this careful analysis answers your queries.

Thanks to Tim Murphy of St. Louis for clearing up Armgate for me. You know, all that he said/she said stuff I cluttered my mailbag with last week. Bulger pushes Warner, and who's mad at whom? etc. Tim reports that it was former backup QB Paul Justin's arm, not Bulger's, that delivered the playful push. In that case, all this nonsense goes up the spout. My question to you, Tim, is: Was Bulger that tall guy in the black shirt in the middle of them? If so, it was not his arm, because I checked this very carefully. The arm in question ended in fingers with long claws instead of nails, and on the bicep, tattooed very faintly, was BORN TO RAISE WHEAT! Jimmy, please allow entry to any future e-mails from this gentleman and we'll keep the thing going right through X-mas.

Question for Matt of Asheville: Highlands is near Asheville, right? My ex-wife's great grandfather, or maybe there should be another great in there, founded the town of Highlands (and I didn't even know it was lost). I'm not kidding. Samuel Truman Kelsey. I had to get down there, and shlep the kids along, for the Centennial. You ever watch four hours of clog dancing, Matt?

Brad of Bethesda, Md., wants my poop sheet on Ravens' LB Edgerton Hartwell. I've seen the Ravens three times. In the Monday night upset over Denver, Hartwell was OK in coverage, decent against the run, but that was Ray Lewis' monster night, when he put everyone in the shadows. In the game at Cleveland Hartwell was involved in three Browns' TDs. On two of them he double-covered with somebody else. On the third one, tight end Mark Campbell ran away from him for a two-yard score on a crossing pattern. Hartwell didn't do much against the run, but the Browns don't run much. Against the Falcons in November he lost contain on Warrick Dunn on a 23-yard comeback, but that was off a Vick scramble, which that throws everything off. It was the only time I saw Hartwell in man coverage that day. His run-stopping was a little better than it had been in the previous two games I saw. Based on these three performances I would rank him in the bottom half of the MLB pack.

To Dan of Toronto: When I saw the Cowboys, Carter was the QB. I've only seen Hutchinson in bits and pieces and he looked like a stiff. I'll get more looks.

Jordan of Montreal is trying to find a way to get the Giants' Tiki Barber the MVP award. Well, let's put it this way -- if he goes down, you can forget about their offense, so in this regard he's immensely valuable. But I'm afraid I'd have to go with the guys you named -- Favre, Bledsoe, Vick, Holmes, etc., over Barber. Plus one or two others, such as the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson and Bulger.

Alec of Libertyville, and thanks for your kind words, wants my take on Antowain Smith and how he relates to the Patriots' offense. He's a good, hard runner, but I don't think he's playing with the same inspiration he showed last year down the stretch. TV analysts are always coming up with charts showing what a team's record is when a runner such as Smith gets, say, 20 or more carries. That's one of those dopey stats they love to hit you with. A power runner gets a lot of carries when a team is sitting on a lead. When it's playing catch-up, he doesn't usually figure. The Patriots aren't good enough on the O-line to consistently establish a power running game against good defenses, although it might happen occasionally if the opponent is caught by surprise

Anish of Bayside, N.Y., has come up with something I was thinking about just the other day when I was watching ... uh, New Orleans-Atlanta, I think it was. The defensive team is penalized down near the goal line, so it's half the distance. On the next play the offense is penalized and it's a full five yards. Same kind of infraction, but the defense has gained a yard or two. What's to be done? Honestly, I don't see how you can beat it. I mean, what do you do if the defense draws a penalty on its own 2? Move it back into the end zone? I guess you could square it up by penalizing the offense the same yardage, but what if it's a major infraction, a 15-yarder? The offense could commit the foul, knowing it would cost it only a yard or two? Well, I've analyzed myself into a fine old knot here and we're still nowhere. I'd call for suggestions from e-mailers, except that I want to spare Jimmy the barrage of wacko replies that usually follows such a call to arms.

Dave of Honolulu wants to know if the Raiders' Charles Woodson is the best tackling cornerback in the game today. I don't think so, at least not in the games I saw. He misses his share.

Ted of St. Petersburg says he has heard some analysts say that Booger McFarland is a better D-lineman than Warren Sapp. Last year McFarland graded higher on my charts. But a guy drawing one blocker generally will grade higher than a guy drawing two, as Sapp does, unless you can work out a degree-of-difficulty system, as they have in diving. All that said, I think McFarland was better than Sapp last year, but Sapp was hurt. This year, no. I like the way Sapp's playing. He's in shape. He's hustling. He doesn't take plays off, the way he used to.

To Bill of Reno: Now you've gone and done it. You've ruined it for me. You've given away one of my sleeper All-Pro picks. Eric Barton and the Steelers' Joey Porter are my current front-runners for the OLB spots, although I need some more looks at the Bucs' Derrick Brooks. But Barton's been terrific every time I've seen him. Do I think the Raiders' D will dominate from now on? Depends on whether or not it stays healthy.

Curt of Uniontown, Pa., wants to know what's wrong with the Steelers' defense. People seem to be able to read it better than they used to. Very effective when it's in the all-out rush mode, very ordinary when it drops back into a zone. Folks whom I respect told me I should give LE Aaron Smith a serious look for All-Pro. Well, I did, against Atlanta, and I saw a good player giving it an average effort.

What's with Bulger and the Jets' Chad Pennington leading the NFC and AFC, respectively, despite the fact that they're first-time starters? That's the question from John of Falls Church, Va., and it's a darn good one. Cristobal of Brooklyn also wants my take on Pennington, in general. Last one first. I think Pennington's terrific. All he's done is save the Jets' season. As far as the enfant terrible syndrome, who's to say why these two young guys are so good, and why no one tuned in to that fact before this? But if the people who make their living at the game didn't see it, I certainly can't step up to the plate and act like an expert. With Pennington, it's inexcusable that they let him languish for two years and change. I think it went under the heading of trying to make Vinny feel comfortable. But the Bulger situation's a real puzzler. OK, the Rams didn't play him, and that figures, but he showed his wares in eight exhibition games over a two-year period. You mean to tell me that none of the teams desperate for a quarterback saw anything there, especially now that Mike Martz is giving us all that la la la about how great Bulger is? I mean, how much would it have cost to trade for him? A mid-range draft choice, maybe? Puzzling. Amazing. I'm going to have to lie down for a while.

OK, I'm ready for the head-breakers, and thanks for saving them for last, Jimmy. The "How could you rank?" gang, and let's see, I've been accused of being ... personally biased (Richard of Valrico, Fla.), a druggie (Jose of NYC), a gas-junkie (Sean of Milwaukee), a schizophrenic (David of Ashburn, Va.), an old clothes freak (the Flaming Redhead ... thanks, Linda) ... and, and ... oh, I can't go it, mate. (From what movie? Gunga Din, when Victor McLaglan gets flogged). So the first one I'll answer is from S. McDermott of Jersey, who has nothing against me, personally; he just doesn't like my ranking of the Giants at No. 19. In capsule, which he also pointed out: they lose to the good teams and struggle to beat the bad ones. Add to that the fact that everyone I have ahead of them is a team I feel could beat them and you have this rather humble status for a 6-4 club.

Now, let's get to the serious rippers. Jose is steamed about Buffalo coming in ahead of the Jets. New York won on a fluke. Bills were and are a better team. If they lose to the Jets on Sunday, my rankings will reflect it. Unless the devil gets into me and I just want to see how much more frothing at the mouth you're capable of when tormented by a blatantly unfair pick ... just kidding. I don't do that kind of stuff anymore.

The other three aforementioned (no, not you, Linda) kamikazes all had the same complaint, Atlanta at No. 1. I wrote it at the time. The Falcons are the hot team. Tampa Bay beat 'em almost two months ago, when they were cold. But I seem to be making a case for the Eagles because of their win over the Bucs? Right. Because I think they're flatly better -- or were, before McNabb went down. Now? Quien sabe? It would be unfair to penalize them because of an injured QB, until we see what they look like with Detmer running the show. In my Forecast column, which you guys also tore to shreds, I predicted a Tampa Bay victory over Green Bay, coupled with a Philly loss to the Niners. If this comes to fruition you'll see the Bucs ranked ahead of the Eagles next week. Wow, I've just given away a secret. See what you've made me do?

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