Dr. Z's Forecast

By Paul Zimmerman

These are the voices of December:
"We've got to stay focused." Coaches of teams that clinch their divisions early worry about this, because they have to worry about something. They're playing for home field in the postseason, for the bye, for a smoother ride to the Super Bowl, and this should be a serious motivator. But for some reason it seldom is. There's a natural letdown after a team clinches a division title. Are you listening, 49ers and Packers?

Niners wideout Terrell Owens will have reason to celebrate against Green Bay, as he did in Dallas. Brian Bahr/Getty Images

"We control our own destiny." In other words, win the rest of your games and you win the division. The Steelers, Bucs, Patriots, Raiders and Titans are in this category, and the Eagles need only one victory to wrap up the NFC East. But the NFL is littered with the wreckage of teams that got derailed while controlling their destiny. Could what happened on Sunday to the Steelers, who lost to the Texans 24-6 despite a 422-47 margin in total yards, be an omen?

"We need help." These teams usually get it, because the most inexplicable upsets (see Steelers-Texans) happen around this time of year. The trick is to avoid being upset yourself. That's you, Broncos, Chiefs and Jets.

"We need lots of help." These clubs are long shots, but sneaking into the playoffs wouldn't be unheard-of. These guys have to win them all while the other guys are losing them all. This is where the Giants fit in.

"We're playing for pride." Well, maybe. Players say that when they can't think of anything else to say. Take the Cardinals, Cowboys, Panthers and Redskins, for instance.

"You hear anything about the coach?" This is the most desperate of all comments, implying as it does that the dismissal announcement could come any day. The Bengals, Jaguars, Lions and Seahawks fit the profile.

Green Bay versus San Francisco is now just a matter of which team is focusing better. The Packers looked desperate for three quarters against the Vikings. The 49ers got a scare from the Cowboys. I'll go with the scared team and focus in on a Niners victory.

• Only one team could be controlling its destiny after the Patriots meet the Titans on Monday night. Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair, battling injuries that kept him off the practice field for two weeks, performs heroically when the bell rings. The Titans aren't just a muscle team anymore. They're spreading the field, but I don't think they'll do much of that against New England, which matches up well against the exotic packages. The Patriots, with three straight wins, are on the rise, just as they were last year at this time. Logic says the Titans at home in a Monday-nighter, but strictly on a hunch, I'll take the Patriots in an upset.

• The Giants need lots of help. They'll get some from the Cowboys, whom they host at the Meadowlands. The Jets need help too, but if they look ahead to the Dec. 22 game against the Patriots, Sunday's road game against the Bears will be one of those heartbreakers. O.K., I'll give the Jets the nod, but scary things could happen. The Colts controlled their destiny -- until losing to the Titans on Sunday. Now Indy visits another of those teams that needs help, the Browns, and I'll give the Colts the win.

• Oakland's on a roll, but Miami faces the specter of playoff elimination with a loss to the Raiders and another one at New England in the finale. I'll ride with the desperate team and go with the Dolphins. The Chargers are a serious contender, the Bills are just about out of it. This is a classic spoiler game. San Diego quarterback Drew Brees has never faced those terrible Buffalo winds. The Bills are the pick.

• The Chiefs will derail the Broncos in Denver. Houston gets still another upset, this time over Baltimore. Pittsburgh rights itself against Carolina. Jacksonville hangs another loss on Cincinnati.

•New Orleans wins big over the Vikings. Ditto Atlanta over Seattle. Tampa Bay, with a letdown a very real possibility, is still too much for Detroit. The Eagles clinch their division against Washington. St. Louis beats Arizona from memory.

Issue date: December 16, 2002

For more Inside the NFL see this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, on newsstands Wednesday, December 11. Click here to subscribe to SI.

 

Related information

Stories

Inside the NFL: Making His Pitch The Magazine: Current Issue and Archives

Multimedia

Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video