Dr. Z's Forecast

I'm wild about the Jets, Packers, Steelers and Giants

Colts at Jets (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

This is like an old-time AFC East game. The Colts have always liked to run some no-huddle at the Jets, which will be impossible, given the savvy crowd in Giants Stadium. They've had good luck on the ground against the Jets, springing Edgerrin James, and last year Dominic Rhodes, for decent yardage. I don't think they will this time. The Jets defense will handle the run on pure emotion, at least in the early going.

But the Jets usually move the ball against Indy, as well, and now their offense is in as good shape as it's been all year, with Chad Pennington playing at a consistently high level and Curtis Martin running with some of his old zip and Santana Moss making a serious contribution. The Colts' defense is better than it was before Tony Dungy arrived, but I don't think that secondary can hold off a high-powered assault. Jets to win it.

Falcons at Packers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

What's worse than meeting Green Bay in Lambeau in the playoffs? Meeting Green Bay in Lambeau in the playoffs at night. The Packers are coming off a sorry outing against the Jets, but it doesn't seem to matter what kind of shape they're in, heading back home for the postseason. Like the giant Antaeus, who drew strength from the earth, they seem to suck up energy from the very ground beneath them when they're at home.

Atlanta has been to Lambeau this year, in the opener, and Michael Vick put on a great show, completing his first 10 passes and running like crazy. There was a huge sigh of relief when he failed to move the team in overtime and the Packers squeezed out their victory. But that was a different Atlanta team. The magic is gone now. Vick throws interceptions. The Falcons have dropped three of their last four, and in those three losses, Vick has carried 24 times for 92 yards, less than four yards a shot. Impressive for another quarterback, maybe, but not for a guy capable of putting up the numbers he has. Can they recapture the past within one week? I don't think so. Packers to win.

Browns at Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The first time the teams met, in Pittsburgh in September, Tommy Maddox relieved Kordell Stewart and pulled out the victory in OT. After the game Bill Cowher said he'd stay with Kordell as his starter, but three days later he switched to Maddox. Cleveland should have won that game, though. The Browns had a first down on the Steelers 34 in OT, but Butch Davis called three conservative runs, which positioned the ball on the 27. The 45-yard field goal fell short. Memo to Coach Davis: a 45-yarder is not a gimme. You want to win a game? Throw a freakin' pass. The second meeting was also a three-point Steelers win, but this one wasn't close. Pittsburgh ran off 85 plays to Cleveland's 42 and controlled just about everything.

Pittsburgh has never faced Kelly Holcomb, the hero in the very early going, when the crowd was cheering for him and booing Tim Couch, etc. But that was a long time ago, and last weekend he looked rusty in relief. I think the Browns are convinced they have a running game now, with William Green putting up big numbers, and I get the feeling they'll try to hammer Pittsburgh on the ground -- as they did in their first meeting -- and not expose Holcomb to the Steelers' long-yardage blitz packages. Maddox has done well against the Browns' defense twice, and I think he will again. Pittsburgh wins it.

Giants at 49ers (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The Giants are hot, the Niners are cold. The Giants are coming off an extra day's rest, since they played last Saturday. The Niners rested people last Monday night, but they still had to go through the whole short-week thing. When the teams met in the season's opener, the Niners ran a very conservative offense. They didn't need much more because they shut down everything the Giants tried. The hero that night, though, was weakside linebacker Jamie Winborn, who had a sensational game, but he went down shortly thereafter with a knee injury and it would be some kind of miracle if he returns for a command performance Sunday.

If Tiki Barber isn't spooked by his three lost fumbles last week, I think he'll lead an offense that will score plenty. The question is: Are the Niners capable of opening it up and matching New York's output -- against a defense that has been playing at a very high level of late? I don't think so. I think the only thing that can sink the Giants is a rash of turnovers. New York to win it in an upset.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and CNNSI.com. His "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on CNNSI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z, click here.

 

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