Logistical nightmare

Skewed stats muddy the waters of worthwhile study

I know I should be writing about the way the Jets butchered the free-agency game, or about whose stock is rising in the draft or how folks are doing with their salary cap. Those are the burning issues of the moment, but forgive me please if I indulge in a personal digression and discuss something that has become almost an obsession with your poor narrator.

It has led me on a sad and lonely path that has met with nothing but rejection. The worst thing is that I know I'm right. Logic is on my side. On the other side is the monolithic, immovable stone face of the NFL. Guess who's winning? No, I won't say the battle is over, because I will continue to wage it until I no longer have a public voice, then I'll do a lot of mumbling to anyone who'll listen.

Now, after this melodramatic buildup, I will drop the name of the topic on you, and your groans will be monumental. What? Such a trivial matter. Almost meaningless. How can he care so much about something so flimsy. Please, let's get on with more serious business.

OK, here it comes (hold off on the moaning until you've allowed me to state my case): Statistics are skewed in the NFL. Not everywhere, just in some areas. Just enough to make me frantic, as I've been for the past 25 years or so.

That's how long I've been carrying on my little crusade to try to add more sense to the numbers. In the 1970s I called Seymour Siwoff, the head of the Elias Sports Bureau, which has handled NFL stats ever since the AFL-NFL merger. Seymour and I have regularly discussed statistics through the years, and at one time he was as passionate about them as I was. But years ago he basically turned things over to the rising power at Elias, a young, bright guy named Steve Hirdt. You've probably seen Hirdt at halftime of the Monday night telecasts, mentioning some statistical curiosity or other, and it was to him that I addressed my complaints, many of which concerned rules of his own making. My first gripe was his ruling that quarterback kneels be registered as rushing plays. They're not. They're non-plays, aberrations, uglies, and they put an incorrect spin on a team's final statistics. I had more things to discuss as well, but I never got to them.

He gave it the basic brushoff. Can't change things already in place. Stop pestering me when I'm busy. In other words, Take a hike, Jack. A very arrogant person. Lord Hirdt was the way I referred to him thereafter. Then I began bothering league people. It became a 25-year lesson in how to try to work behind the scenes when you wanted to get something done. You go to the people you know and hope they'll talk to someone who's empowered to do something. I developed a newfound respect for those who make their livings as lobbyists.

Finally, when my old friend, the late George Young, became the NFL's executive vice president for football operations, I said, "Aha, now we'll get some action at last." George was a former high school teacher, a humanist, a logician. Many a discussion we had on various aspects of the world's madness. This would be the man to effect the changes I was fervently hoping for.

He told me to put my concerns in a letter. I did. Nothing. Then he told me to re-submit it. I did. He said he was working on it. Then he got sick and I couldn't pester him with this anymore. I was advised to send the letter to another old friend, Pete Hadhazy, who is in game operations in the league. I did. Pete suggested I send it to John Beake in Football Operations. I did, personalizing it by using the Broncos as an example, (although I could have used anybody) because Beake was once Denver's GM. Here is the letter I sent to George Young and Pete Hadhazy and John Beake and other worthy recipients in the league office.

At the end of last season's (2001) Broncos-Giants game, Brian Griese knelt three times for minus-three yards. This gave Denver a rushing total of 36 carries for 143 yards, a 3.97 average. If the kneels had not been counted in the rushing stats, the total would have been 33 for 146, an average of 4.42.

The statistical anomaly of listing kneels as rushes, which, of course, they are not -- they are non-plays -- knocked Denver's average down from something a coach would be fairly satisfied with to something slightly above mediocre. This happens every week. It happens over the course of a season. The better teams are penalized by having their rushing stats chopped down in an artificial manner because the better teams win, consequently they call kneels.

Why must this be? Because the Elias Bureau, i.e., Lord Hirdt, rules that it is so. No one in the league office seems to feel this is a matter even worth considering. Just too trivial, etc. But I've seen instances where an offensive coach or a line coach may have a bonus built into his contract, keyed to a 4.0 team rushing average. And to some of us, statistics are mileposts of the game, therefore important in their way. They're not an answer to anything, not a be-all, end-all, but an interesting sidelight. And why not try to make them as accurate as possible?

Lord Hirdt has ruled that kneels are rushing plays. Everyone follows in lockstep. He must be reminded that it's the NFL not the HFL. I've discussed with him the idea of revising the method of recording kneels. My suggestion was to score them the same way team rebounds are scored in basketball. Have an asterisk on the bottom -- 'Denver, three kneels for minus three yards, not to be included in official statistics.' He made a castor oil face and said, 'You can't go around revising scoring methods.' Why not? The whole history of statistics and record-keeping in the NFL has been one of revision. The pass-rating method, for instance, has been revised three or four times.

The answer is that it means more work for Lord Hirdt and Elias. I don't suggest that they go through all the old stat charts and revise them. Let 'em alone. Just apply the new, more logical method, from now on. Still, it means more work for them, notifying the crews, checking to make sure everyone has it right, etc. Gee, more work. That's tough.

They are your employees, not your masters. Why not commission them to employ more accurate and logical methods?

Thank you hearing me out ... (reading me out? No, that doesn't sound right). I wish you the best.

Sincerely,
Paul Zimmerman

So far the letter has produced no response except an acknowledgment that it has been received. I corner NFL people at Super Bowls, league meetings, the draft, etc. Usually they fix their gaze on a point somewhere over my left shoulder and remark, "Yes, that's very interesting." At the recent meetings I was told to lay my ideas on Rich McKay, the head of the Competition Committee, since he is a bright young person, a new, potential force in league politics who is vitally concerned about matters such as these. So I did. "The people to talk to are Seymour Siwoff and the Elias Bureau," he said. I tried to explain that they were the ones I was complaining about, but the magic of the moment was lost.

I won't give up on this because, God help us, the kneel stats are only the tip of the iceberg. If, somehow, I actually find someone who feels as I do and has enough clout to order Lord Hirdt and his gang to change the rules, then just look what other things are coming: