A look at some behind-the-scenes draft week maneuvering
Posted: Thursday April 24, 2003 2:43 PM
They call it a mock draft because it mocks me. You work for a solid week on it, and then one little change in someone's plans and the whole line of dominoes falls and you come off looking like an idiot. I don't even like the name they've assigned this thing within the last few years. Mock Draft. Sounds like something out of Lewis Carroll. In the old days, like in the early '70s, when I first started doing this thing, it had a name with more stature, such as Projected Draft or Prospective Draft. Something with dignity -- and three syllables.
I've already done my mock draft for this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, and I won't veer from it here. If I could keep making phone calls up till a day or two before the actual event, as some writers can, my board would be more accurate, no question about it. But I'd also be nuts. Paralysis by analysis. There are some handicappers who have already put out three or four mock drafts. The late Joel Buchsbaum, king of the draftniks, used to keep rewriting them right up to and through the morning of the draft, whereupon he'd pass his sheets out in the draft room itself.
What I'll try to do here is give you a little of the stuff that's going on behind the scenes. Please understand that many of the coaches and personnel people I've spoken to will have to remain anonymous or I'll lose them as sources. I've spoken to every team drafting in the first round except Chicago and Green Bay -- neither of whom returned calls -- and, of course, Oakland, since it's a waste of time to call the Raiders and pretend you believe their fibs.
Dr. Z's 2003 Mock Draft
Pick
Team
Pos.
Player
College
Ht.
Wt.
Class
1
QB
Carson Palmer
USC
6'5"
220
Sr.
For awhile there was some thought that they might switch to Terence Newman, the cornerback. That was draftnik thinking, since no one I talked to in Cincy said they were trying to get off Palmer. But if by some remote chance they do anyway, it'll be for only one reason. Money. It'll mean they simply couldn't work out a deal.
2
WR
Charles Rogers
Michigan St.
6'3"
205
Jr.
Two hundred pounds, runs the 40 in 4.3, a drafter's dream, but he's so special that the Lions are scared that Houston will trade up into the Bengals' spot to get him. It would make sense for Cincy because even at No. 3 they could get Palmer (and at less money), since Detroit and Houston got their QBs last year. The Texans' people I talked to didn't rule out the possibility of trading up.
3
WR
Andre Johnson
Miami (Fla.)
6'2"
230
Jr.
He's not quite as good a receiver as Rogers but his size (6-foot-2, 230 pounds)/speed (4.28) ratio is out of sight. Will the Texans trade up anyway? I don't think so.
4
DT
Dewayne Robertson
Kentucky
6'3"
310
Jr.
Robertson and cornerback Marcus Trufant were the hottest players on the board during the pre-draft week. Robertson has shot past Penn State's Jimmy Kennedy as the No. 1 interior defensive lineman, and one personnel director I talked to wondered why. "What do they see in the last two weeks that they didn't see when they looked at all his game films?" he asked. "What's changed? I never could understand these late bloomers." Nevertheless, here he is, and the Vikings and Cowboys would both kill to have him. Why the Bears? Because that's what people who know people have told me. "Frankly, it doesn't make sense for them to take a defensive tackle," said another personnel guy. "They've got [Ted] Washington and [Keith] Traylor coming back and they paid [Alfonso] Boone big money as a backup." He feels that their pressing needs are for an outside pass rusher (Terrell Suggs) or a cornerback (Newman), or even a QB such as Byron Leftwich, despite the fact they picked up Kordell Stewart.
5
*
CB
Terence Newman
Kansas St.
5'11"
180
Sr.
(Projected trade with the Cowboys.)Jim Haslett is desperate to trade up for either Newman or Trufant. Newman, though, is the prize, even though some scouts say he has a degenerative shoulder that will cause future problems. It'll cost New Orleans two first-round drafts, and I had the Saints giving up one of their two choices this year plus the No. 1 next season, but Haslett seems to be willing to let Dallas have both their picks (Nos.17 and 18) in this draft to get the best pure cover man on the board.
6
DE
Terrell Suggs
Arizona St.
6'3"
250
Jr.
Everyone agrees that Arizona will be his home. A sacker and outside speed rusher for the NFL's worst sacking team over the last three years. The success of Indy's Dwight Freeney pick last year has made everyone sit up and take notice.
7
DT
Jimmy Kennedy
Penn State
6'4"
330
Sr.
Others have projected Trufant here, and that might be the case if Mike Tice changes his thinking. What he told me was that the defense has to get bigger. "We've got a 6-8, 285-pound coach and 250-pound linemen," he said. Strictly on a need basis, though, the Trufant pick makes more sense.
8
QB
Byron Leftwich
Marshall
6'6"
250
Sr.
If he lasts this long. He was an extremely hot prospect during his senior season, then he dimmed a bit because of two leg injuries and a so-so workout. Now he's hot again and the late word is that he'll go higher than No. 8. This is obviously a long-range pick, since there's still some life left in Mark Brunell, but the feeling is that a prospect like this comes along very seldom at No. 8 and they'd better grab him.
9
T
Jordan Gross
Utah
6'6"
310
Sr.
His stock is also rising and he might go earlier. Carolina people told me they'd take Leftwich if he were still there, or one of the top two wideouts. Quick-footed left tackles, though, are hard to come by.
10
*
CB
Marcus Trufant
Washington St.
5'11"
185
Sr.
(Projected trade with Ravens, using the 17th pick, from New Orleans.) There are only two blue-chip corners in this draft and Trufant is the second one. I don't really know who's going to trade up to No. 10 to get him. There are lots of admirers, but this is definitely the Trufant spot on the board, and you could put any of half a dozen teams here. The Ravens are definitely willing to trade down -- but not too far. They don't want to risk losing their guy, Kyle Boller, the QB, whom they don't love at No. 10 but they do farther down. The problem: If they get too cute and drop much lower they might see him taken, so the No. 17 spot would seem just about right for them.
11
DT
Kevin Williams
Oklahoma State
6'5"
290
Sr.
Mike Holmgren has been talking of the Seahawks' need for interior D-line help, which puzzles everyone since they already have a lot of people there. Most have automatically penciled in Williams or some other DT here, and so did I at first. Then a rival coach told me, "[Holmgren's] blowing smoke. He really wants Trufant. He's got a desperate need for a corner." The guy was so sure that we bet $5 on it. So I started thinking -- by golly, he's right -- and I penciled in Trufant, giving me a double-dipper. If he's the selection, I score a W but lose $5, which is OK. If it's the D-lineman, I'm wrong on my chart but I pick up a fiver. See that? Can't lose. But all that was predicated upon the Ravens taking Boller at No. 10. Now that it has opened up, I have Trufant off the board and I'm left with Williams, whom the 'Hawks like best of all the remaining DTs, or at least that's what they say. Some people, though, are not enamored by this quick 300-pounder, who runs the 40 in the 4.9 range. "What makes me nervous about him," one coach said, "is that he's just not passionate enough about football. But when we started talking basketball he got excited. I think he's going to get his rookie paycheck and cruise. He also didn't do well in the psychological profiling we did on him."
12
T
Kwame Harris
Stanford
6'7"
315
Jr.
They lost right corner Dre' Bly, so Trufant would be the first choice, and they might trade up for him. I had Harris lower down on the board until I talked to Mike Martz, who feels he's better than Gross.
13
DT
Johnathan Sullivan
Georgia
6'3"
299
Jr.
(From Redskins.)
Defense, they said. Interior defense. Big guys. Then they'll worry about a wideout to replace Laveranues Coles. They'd probably take Williams if he were still there, but there's sentiment for Sullivan, too.
14
DT
Ty Warren
Texas A&M
6'4'
300
Sr.
(From Bills.)
More defense, this time to spruce up last year's oldest Dee in the NFL. When the Patriots went with their big lineup last season they lacked speed to cover a spread field. When they lightened it up, teams muscled them. So we're giving them a tackle and a corner, and it doesn't really have to be in that order, but both represent the people they have rated highest of what's left.
15
DT
William Joseph
Miami
6'4"
295
Sr.
I shot a lot of names at them, especially that of Boss Bailey, the highest-rated linebacker, since this seems to be the logical place for him. Nope, they said. They preferre a lineman. How about a safety to make up for the loss of Rodney Harrison? Mike Doss or Troy Polamalu, for instance? Nope, too high. Fine, so I went down the list of remaining DTs and Joseph's name was prominent. Marcellus Wiley and Raylee Johnson are sturdy enough at the DEs, so a wingman isn't a major priority. But you never know. There are quite a few good players left at that position. Eric Steinbach, the quick-footed, athletic guard from Iowa, is also an enticing possibility.
16
LB
Boss Bailey
Georgia
6'3"
230
Sr.
Numbers you can't believe. Runs in the 4.3s. Other people might find things wrong with him -- i.e., workout warrior, tests better than he plays, coming off knee injuries, etc. -- but Dick Vermeil sure doesn't. Can't believe he's still there, he says.
17
*
QB
Kyle Boller
California
6'3'
220
Sr.
(From Saints through Cowboys.) This is part of that three-way trade I projected, you remember? It might not work out this way, but I just wanted to make sure the Ravens got Boller, no matter what the position is. Baltimore really loves Leftwich, though. And Gross.
18
*
G
Eric Steinbach
Iowa
6'6"
297
Sr.
(Projected trade with Saints.) Guards never have appealed to Bill Parcells in the first round, no matter what kind of athletic marvels they are. He'd like a DT to go with his nifty new corner, Trufant, but we've already given away six of them. Steinbach is one of those guys who you know has to be gone by now, so lets just give him to the Cowboys and move on.
19
CB
Sammy Davis
Texas A&M
6"0"
186
Sr.
I just noticed, two Aggie defenders for the Pats. To shortstop any future questions about why I did this, let me say that it was strictly by accident. Davis, or it could be Eugene Wilson, is their highest-rated corner at this point.
20
DE
Jerome McDougle
Miami (Fla.)
6'2"
265
Sr.
They figured he'd be gone, and they might be right, but they'll be happy to get him. Steinbach would be an intriguing possibility in this spot. Just right for the Broncos system, which calls for mobile linemen. The safeties are interesting, too, but that's only if the others are gone.
21
C
Jeff Faine
Notre Dame
6'2"
303
Sr.
Benny Joppru, the tight end from Michigan, is another name they're kicking around. The consensus of thinking always has been that this spot might be too high for a center. Right. And they said the same thing about Mike Webster and Dermontti Dawson and Dwight Stephenson and all the great centers in history. Personally, I think this guy will have a dynamite career in the NFL. A vicious blocker at the point and able to execute the reach-block --- in other words, move out of a normal center's range and reach someone two players away -- as well. Mark my words. Then we'll call it my Mark Draft.
22
WR
Taylor Jacobs
Florida
6'1"
195
Sr.
They lost Coles, the go-to man for Chad Pennington. This is what they're left with: Wayne Chrebet, an effective slot receiver who isn't dynamic on the flank; their new pickup, Curtis Conway, who's on the downside; and Santana Moss, who pulls a hamstring or something else every 20 minutes. Yes, it's gotta be a receiver here. Could be Penn State's Bryant Johnson, whose stock is rising, or Kelley Washington, whose neck injury scares some people.
23
*
DE
Michael Haynes
Penn State
6'3"
265
Sr.
(From Falcons.)
D-line, and if all the quality is gone, then they switch and go wideout. Nebraska DE Chris Kelsay is a possibility. So is Colorado's DE Tyler Brayton.
24
SS
Troy Polamalu
Southern Cal
5'10"
215
Sr.
The scouts have moved him ahead of Ohio State's Mike Doss, probably because of his 4.34 clocking, the kind of speed you just don't see in strong safeties. Tony Dungy's a former DB himself and an ex-secondary coach. The Colts have been trying to draft defense for as long as I can remember -- OK, for as long as I can remember post-Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James.
25
DT-DE
Kenny Peterson
Ohio State
6'4"
290
Sr.
Still vivid in their minds is the way their defense died against the 49ers in the playoffs, mainly because they didn't have enough linemen to work a rotation. They don't want to be caught with the shorts again. Kelsay is a better possibility here, but the Niners, drafting one spot lower, want him, too, and they might trade up for him. The Giants also have a hole to fill at offensive RT, and if Peterson and Kelsay and Haynes are all gone, they just might switch and go O-line for Harris, provided he hasn't been picked. It's a lot of what-if's, but that's what happens down here at No. 25.
26
DE
Chris Kelsay
Nebraska
6'5"
260
Sr.
Here are four names for you: Kelsay, Harris, Faine, Davis. If they're gone, think of CB Andre Woolfolk of Oklahoma. If you want a sleeper pick, think of Calvin Pace, a defensive end from Wake Forest who's still a developmental project but has great long-range potential. If you're still not satisfied, think of reading somebody else's column.
27
RB
Larry Johnson
Penn State
6'1'
220
Sr.
Rex Grossman, the QB, has been projected here. They say no. I won't argue. Woolfolk also has been projected here. That's a much more logical "might-be." Guess what, no runners have been picked yet, although Miami's Willis McGahee, rehabbing knee and all, might be grabbed by a team willing to wait a year for him to get well. Johnson is not as flashy as McGahee, or Oregon's Onterrio Smith either, for that matter, but he's the most dependable.
28
CB
Eugene Wilson
Illinois
5'11"
185
Sr.
Everyone told me they have to take a DB. The Titans told me O-line, mentioning Harris, Faine and Hawaii guard Vince Manuwai. Which should have led me to pick Manuwai, right? But it just didn't sit right. So I went off on my own tangent and gave them the guy most people like as the corner rated after the top three. I see the name of Tyrone Calico, the Middle Tennessee wideout who ran a 4.27 at the combine, linked to the Titans in other Mocking Drafts. They never mentioned him to me. Why should they? Why should anyone tell me anything? It's just a game for us, but it's their lifeblood. Why should anyone even talk to me at all? I mean, I don't dress well. I don't wear a tie. My shoes are never shined. Linda, slap me around, so I can get this thing finished.
29
QB
Rex Grossman
Florida
6'1"
225
Sr.
I had E.J. Henderson, the inside LB, penciled in as a need pick. At least two other personnel directors told me to do myself a favor and put Grossman down. So I'm doing myself a favor. As I said, the Packers didn't return my calls. This will not affect my coverage of them during the season.
30
RB
Willis McGahee
Miami
6'1"
224
Soph.
Andy Reid is playing a pat hand. He can afford to gamble, he says, on a guy who could come up big in 2004, when Duce Staley's contract is up, coincidentally. If McGahee is gone, and I have a feeling that the teams that are thinking about him are being very quiet about it -- in other words, he'll go to someone totally unexpected. If he's gone, then the Eagles would be interested in Jason Witten, the tight end from Tennessee.
31
TE
L.J. Smith
Rutgers
6'3"
254
Sr.
Raiders. L.J. Smith, TE, Rutgers, and Vince Manuwai, G, Hawaii. Guessing game. Scuttlebutt. How about Onterrio Smith, a terrific runner who has gotten in plenty of trouble off the field? Sure, that's a Raiders-type pick. How about McGahee, a gamble, as Bo Jackson was? Sorry, he's gone. We go with rumors, with what people tell us. Last year it paid off when everyone called Napoleon Harris correctly, but that was an aberration.
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