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Making the grade

Draft ranking becomes exercise in letter-writing

Posted: Tuesday April 29, 2003 5:37 PM
  Dr. Z - Inside Football

Do you want to know how I rate the teams on their 2003 drafts? See me in five years. Then we'll know who did what. Too long to wait? Everyone else is rating them now? OK, I'll give you my early impressions. The Redskins and Falcons, each of whom used their first-round choice for a veteran, will receive two grades, with and without their vet.

THE ELITE

A) Cincinnati -- Another top grade for the Bengals, but they always draft well. It's when those guys put on the uniform that the bad things happen. This is a big-name draft with very few unknowns. We'll find out about Carson Palmer, of course. In the second round they landed the player many people felt was the second best offensive lineman in the draft, Eric Steinbach. But for all his athleticism and technical brilliance, he plays an unpopular position, guard, which kept him off the board for a round. Kelley Washington (third round) is a big-league receiver with a neck injury. The pick is a bit of a gamble. More of the same lower down, as Dennis Weathersby (fourth round), a talented cornerback, dropped a couple of rounds because of a recent gunshot wound and fell to Cincy. I like Cincinnati's fifth-round pick, too -- Khalid Abdullah, a sleeper linebacker who had a great combine workout, and from a college so obscure that I figured the name must be a typo and changed it. The school is Mars Hill. When I first read it in one of those draft books, I thought they had substituted an "i" for an "a" and I changed it to Marshall.

B+) New England -- I was on a Boston radio show the day after the draft and the host said to me, "Well, another lousy draft for the Patriots," and I had to take issue with that. The point I tried to make was that you don't need a flashy name up on top to have a good draft list. Depth is important, too, and I can go through five rounds of New England's draft before I can find someone I don't think will help the Patriots this year. At the top is Ty Warren, a good, functionally sound DT. Eugene Wilson was in the thick of the CB mix, right after the elite pair of Terence Newman and Marcus Trufant. Bethel Johnson, also taken in the second round, was the second-fastest runner in the draft, at 4.30 in the 40, and he returns kicks, too. DT Dan Klecko (fourth) is the son of Joe, who should be in the Hall of Fame, and I've seen the same kind of comments I did when daddy was coming out -- lacking all the measurables except heart, desire and the ability to play football. Their other fourth rounder, Asante Samuel, is a nickel CB type with good ball skills. One round later is a hard-working center, Dan Koppen, who was ranked by some scouts among the top five at the position. That's six guys I think can help, before we get to QB Kliff Kingsbury, and who knows about QBs? I call it a pretty good draft, and they did more trading and hustling than any other team in the league, and sure, they traded away one of their first-round picks but what they're left with for next year's draft are two No. 1s, two No. 2s and three No. 4s.

B+) Baltimore -- I like the players they got and the way they positioned themselves to pick up an extra first-round choice and grab their QB at No. 18, and all that, but history has a way of being cruel and someday this might be known as the Ravens' What-if? draft. What if Byron Leftwich becomes a Pro Bowl QB and the Ravens' came one phone call and one busy signal away from trading up to get him? Will they swear eternal vengeance on the Vikings for screwing up the deal? Will they stick to the party line that no one believes, that the guy they got, Kyle Boller, was rated only a whisper below Leftwich? But let's talk about happier topics. Terrell Suggs, the best collegiate pass rusher, is a fine pickup at the No. 10 spot, and they'll be able to exert serious pressure with Suggs and Peter Boulware coming off the flanks. Musa Smith (third) is a straight-line power runner who fits their style. Jarret Johnson (fourth) is still another guy who can rush the passer. Ovie Mughelli (fourth) is a productive 255-pound fullback, and lower down, Notre Dame safety Gerome Sapp (sixth) is a serious run-stopper.

B+) Minnesota -- A controversial ranking, since the Vikes blew the chance for extra fourth- and sixth-round pickups by screwing up the trade with the Ravens, and some handicappers have punished them in the rankings as a result. Sorry, but I still like the players they got and have rated them accordingly. First-rounder Kevin Williams is a highly regarded size-and-speed DT. Wideout Nate Burleson (third) caught 138 passes, close to the all-time NCAA record, last year. The second- and fourth-round choices are gambles, but who likes teams that don't take a chance? E.J. Henderson (second), was the best ILB on the board but he has a bad back. On pure talent, Onterrio Smith (fourth) is the best runner in the draft, after Miami's Willis McGahee, but Smith is coming off a knee injury, plus some off-the-field mishaps. If Mike Tice can get Smith straightened out, both physically and emotionally, he'll have something special. The Vikings got a real steal in the sixth round when one of the premier outside backers, Michael Nattiel, fell to them.

B+) Detroit -- Once we get past wideout Charles Rogers in the first round I counted three Lions draftees who figured to go higher than they did. Detroit got Boss Bailey, the consensus No. 1 LB in the country, in Round 2. Not exactly a Matt Millen type of pick, i.e., unbelievable workout numbers (40 time in the 4.3s, vertical jump of 44 1/2"), which haven't really translated into productivity on the field, but what potential! Ben Johnson, a mauler-type RT, could have gone three rounds higher than where the Lions got him (seventh). Ditto Brandon Drumm, a tough, hard-working fullback (also in the seventh). Add to that another tough, high energy guy, DE Cory Redding (third) and you have a good draft mix of productivity and potential.

THE NEAR ELITE

B/B+) Dallas -- The Cowboys got either the best or the second-best player at the position on their first three picks. Newman (first) is the draft's best corner. Al Johnson (second), an accomplished technician, is right behind Jeff Faine as the country's No. 1 center, and the highly athletic Jason Witten (third) is close to being the best tight end. Add to that a very strong, run-stopping ILB, Bradie James (fourth), and a 4.32 corner, B.J. Tucker (sixth), and you have a pretty neat Parcells-Jones draft. One sidelight. During the weeks leading into the draft coach Parcells mentioned D-line as one of the more serious areas of need. Guess how many D-linemen he drafted. You're right if you said zero.

B/B+) Jacksonville -- Remember that game we used to play, capture the flag, where you square off and try to snatch the flag before the other guy can react? That was Jacksonville with the Leftwich pick. And now they have a flag and maybe their QB for the next 10 years. Turning to the lesser elite ... it's all on the upside for CB Rashean Mathis (second), who runs a 4.41 and returns punts. The Hawaii guard, Vince Manuwai (third), a mauler type, was rated as high as a first rounder on some boards, although I didn't like his pass blocking and overall mobility in the Senior Bowl. The Jags' last pick (seventh), is a legitimate sleeper, Samoa-born Malaefou MacKenzie, a pass-catching fullback who was a two-year injury redshirt.

B) St. Louis -- Speed. The Rams have four guys who can run the 40 in the 4.4s or better, and their No. 1 draft, Jimmy Kennedy, isn't one of them. But WR Kevin Curtis (third) is, and they're comparing him to ex-Bill Don Beebe, a straight-line blazer who puts an exclamation point on zone defenses. I like their second rounder, OLB Piso Tinoisamoa, who was all over the field during the Senior Bowl, but Kennedy, the top-ranked DT until Dewayne Robertson overtook him about two weeks before the draft, makes me nervous with his inconsistency. That's what they have coaches for ... I guess.

B) New York Jets -- They had to do something to erase the sting of losing half their team to the Redskins, so they went bold, traded their two first-round picks for the No. 4 pick to get Robertson, praying all the while that someone wouldn't trade in ahead of them and snatch him off the plate. When he showed up at the draft itself in NYC Robertson hoped the fans there wouldn't boo him. Boo? They were ready to make him mayor. He'll be a most popular Jet, as long as he keeps collapsing the pocket. I like LB Victor Hobson (second), who showed good instincts and ball awareness at the Senior Bowl, and third-rounder B.J. Askew, a RB/FB from Michigan, but one thing puzzles me: How can you go through seven picks without drafting at least one wideout? Maybe they feel there's better talent in what's left of the free-agent market, but they'd better stop kidding themselves and grab somebody.

UPPER MIDDLE CLASS

B-/B) Houston -- OK, so what do they do with their sixth-round supplemental choice, No. 192 overall, Drew Henson, QB, U. of Michigan and the New York Yankees? Sit on him and hope he'll hatch? Work a trade before they've even introduced him around? What? What if he shows up in camp, pounds his fist on the table and says, "I intend to compete for the starting job on this team." OK, enough problems. It's an exciting pick and adds a little wildness to a rather calm draft list. You have to like the way they're trying to plug people into an undermanned offense -- Andre Johnson (first), the terrific wideout; Bennie Joppru (second), one of the sturdier and hardest blocking TEs; Seth Wand (third) a 6-foot-7, long-armed, pass-blocking tackle; Domanick Davis (fourth), a decent all-purpose back who returns kicks. I'm not sure I understand Dave Ragone, the Louisville QB, in the third round, but as Charlie Casserly, the GM, says, "Quarterbacks? You can never have enough of them." Well, you see, that's where we differ. I think you can and it's enough already.

B-/B) Chicago -- This is something I can understand. You need a position filled, you use your high drafts to fill it. Need a pass rusher to take Rosevelt Colvin's spot? First-round choice Michael Haynes, the Senior Bowl MVP, is selected to fill it. Need a QB, just in case Kordell Stewart is not the answer? Well, there's Rex Grossman, who was much admired at Florida until people decided there was something wrong with his mechanics. (Must have been the guys who worked on my car.) Particularly eye-catching is Charles Tillman (second), an oversized 6-1, 205-pound corner who has run a 4.44. And then there's the blue-collar part of this draft that I especially like, wideout Bobby Wade (fifth), not a real size-and-speed guy but a very accomplished receiver, and RB Brock Forsey (seventh), another guy lacking in the measurables but a very productive back.

B-) Kansas City -- Picking Larry Johnson in the first round tells me they're worried about Priest Holmes' return from surgery. The Kawika Mitchell (second) pick tells me they want a formidable body backing up the line. He's 253 pounds and he can rush the passer, and just look at these workout numbers ... 4.66 in the 40, 25 reps in the bench press, 37-inch vertical jump. When his school, South Florida, met its archrival, Oklahoma, something got him annoyed because he lit up this gridiron classic with 13 tackles, five behind the line, two sacks and a forced fumble. Wait, I'm not through. His bio says he was thrown from a car moving at 50 mph (I want to meet the guy who threw him) and suffered only a slight shoulder separation. The road suffered a major shoulder separation. Are there corners on Dick Vermeil's draft list, to hold off the mighty Raiders passing attack? Uh, no, but there's now one of the country's top safeties, Julian Battle (third), who runs faster than any of Oakland's receivers do.

B-) Carolina -- I like drafts that address an immediate problem, and stuffing the talent in up front is a good way to go for the Panthers. Jordan Gross (first) is a natural LT and the best on the board. Bruce Nelson (second) is a smart and tough center, anchoring an Iowa line that was rated as the finest in college football. Mike Seidman (third) isn't the best blocking tight end, but he's 258 pounds and willing. And look what fell to them in the seventh round -- Casey Moore, the capable, productive Stanford fullback who carried a very high pre-draft rating, but then tumbled for some reason. Why didn't they draft a quarterback? you ask. I guess they felt there was no one there who was much better than Jake Delhomme, whom they just picked up.

B-) Indianapolis -- Tony Dungy wanted a safety, preferably Southern Cal's Troy Polamalu, but if he were gone, then Ohio State's Mike Doss would be a pretty good pick-up. First round? Perhaps too high. Let's wait, and in the meantime grab our top-rated TE, Dallas Clark, and see what happens. What happened was that Doss fell to the Colts in the second round, and now the draft had a happy face, particularly when a mauler-type RT, Steve Sciullo, was there in the fourth round, and then a sleeper popped up one round later -- outside backer and 4.5 edge-rusher Robert Mathis. Add to that Cato June (sixth), another hard-tackling Big Ten safetyman, and at least you have some willing new bodies for special teams.

B-) Seattle -- The D-line help they were hollering for was addressed by a trade for the Saints' Norman Hand, leaving the Seahawks free to concentrate on their secondary. Which they did with gusto, selecting the second best corner on the board, Marcus Trufant, in the first round, and a rugged 210-pound safetyman, Ken Hamlin, in the second. Tackle Wayne Hunter (third) is still learning the position but has great upside, and 4.5 40-time QB Seneca Wallace could be another Antwaan Randle-El.

B-) Tennessee -- Some scouts felt that Andre Woolfolk, the Titans' first-round choice, was the third-best corner coming out. Others felt that he was a bit stiff ... not a big stiff, a bit stiff. We'll see. There's no arguing with the speed of the second-round pick, though. Wideout Tyrone Calico hit the lottery at the combine with a 4.27, which is faster than most people I know can run. Now, if he manages to catch the ball as well, they'll have something. They say that No. 3 draft Chris Brown runs with Eddie George's upright style, but the similarity ends there. Brown has some power, and should be decent in short relief. Good value at No. 4 ... DT Rien Long, quick off the ball and still learning.

THE HALF MOON CLUB

C+) New Orleans -- Desperate for a cover corner, eager to trade up for either Newman or Trufant, the Saints cashed in their two No. 1s and moved up all right, but for Johnathan Sullivan, a good, sound DT to take the place of departed Hand. Six picks later they still hadn't selected a defensive back, but they wound up with a pair of interesting O-linemen, Jon Stinchcomb (second), an athlete, and Montrae Holland (fourth), a mauler. The closest thing to a cover guy they could find was Cie Grant (third), a weakside LB who runs all over the field.

C/C+) New York Giants -- They were going to trade up. They didn't have to. Lots of D-linemen fell before New York drafted, but not all of them, so the guy their super TE, Jeremy Shockey, was begging them to draft was there and they took him. William Joseph, DT, and Shockey's teammate at Miami. Thus ends the recognizable portion of their draft. The rest of the high part of it is, well, exotic. Osi Umenyiora (second), DE, Troy State, a sacking fiend against Nebraska, quick off the edge. So in two picks the Giants addressed their crying need, depth on the D-line. Need No. 2 was a second TE, which would enable them to use their effective two-tight formation. Basically, a blocker was needed. What they got in Round 3 was an athlete, Vishante Shiancoe, who ran up terrific numbers at the combine. But I heard that they don't have to block anybody there. Oh well, they can teach him how to block. Let's keep it positive. Here's an intriguing pick, David Tyree, WR, Syracuse (sixth), labeled by scouts as the best special teamer in the draft, other than kickers and returners. Blocked five kicks in college.

C) San Francisco -- It's silly of me, I know, but I like their second, third and fourth choices better than their first, who happens to be a tall, gifted, athletic tackle from Stanford, Kwame Harris. What don't I like about him? I'll bet you know already. He plays as the mood seizes him. Next (second round) came Penn State DT Anthony Adams, hardly a body beautiful in the Harris mold. This guy is 5-11 1/2, 297, and he once sued his town for building the sidewalk so close to his behind. But did you watch the way he carried on in the Senior Bowl? Hustling all over the field. People say that he benefited from playing alongside Jimmy Kennedy in college. I think it was the other way around. The 49ers' third-round choice was speed-rushing DE Andrew Williams to take the place of departed Chike Okeafor. Finally, in the fourth round they took a proficient, opportunistic wideout, Brandon Lloyd, who doesn't have the great speed but knows how to play.

C) Cleveland -- I must be the only one who likes the Browns' first-round pick, center Jeff Faine. I think he's gonna be another Dermontti Dawson, and he'll play right away and play well. In the next round they got an intriguing character, OLB and edge-rusher Chaun Thompson, who hoisted the weight 29 times, which most tackles don't do, ran a 4.52 and once high jumped 6-11. Short blockers beware! Effort and special teams describes safety Chris Crocker (third), and the draft could really turn pleasant if two injury rehabbers come through, RB Lee Suggs (fourth) a power and speed guy who's still recovering from knee surgery, and DE Antonio Garay, who dropped to the sixth round because of multiple injuries, but could be very good when healthy.

C) Oakland -- Al Davis' feud with the headline writers continues as he drafts CB Nnambi Asomugha in the first round. ("Waddya mean ya spell it with two n's in front?") He's a specialist in bump-coverage (that's Nnambi, not Al), he could man a safety spot and he's also the third cornerback drafted by the Raiders in the first round in the last six years. Their second first-round choice was spent on another player who was marginal at this point, DE Tyler Brayton, a high-motor guy who's kind of a tackle-end tweener. Still hung up on the people with more than one position on their resume, we come to Teyo Johnson (second), 6-5 1/2, 247, a wideout in college but projected as a TE in the pros, or maybe an H-back. Kind of a Ricky Dudley clone. Great athlete who drops the ball on occasion, but Oakland's concerned about the return of their injured blocking TE, Roland Williams, so maybe they'll go with two down-the-seam guys, Johnson and Doug Jolley, to give the defense more to worry about, as if there weren't enough already.

C) San Diego -- I don't know why more people don't do this. You play in the same division as the Raiders. You never know when they might throw 60 passes at you, so you fill your roster with DBs. Which is what the Chargers did in the first three rounds, taking smooth CB Sammy Davis (first), unschooled but talented CB Drayton Florence (second) and sure-tackling S Terrence Kiel (third), with another safetyman, Hanik Milligan, a big hitter, farther down (sixth). Of course, when your team finished dead last in pass defense last year, it makes even more sense.

C-/C) Philadelphia -- Draftniks all over the Eastern seaboard have been raising their glasses to the Eagles for trading up 15 spots for a pass-rusher, Jerome McDougle, in the first round, and sure, I salute it, but this looks like a one-player draft. OK, I'll give them credit for TE L.J. Smith, who's talented but inexperienced, in the second round, but aside from a situational edge rusher, Jamaal Green, lower down (fourth), I don't see much else here.

LOWER HALF MOON STREET

C-) Buffalo -- McGahee, a terrific runner who might not be ready to play this year, was the top choice. Coach Gregg Williams has one year left on his contract. So you just know that this was an organizational pick. They got lucky in the second round, though, and found DE Chris Kelsay, a pass rusher they so desperately need; otherwise this draft would be pretty grim looking. And where's the wideout to take the place of Peerless Price, who's frolicking on the Atlanta pastures these days? At Round 4, and his name is Sam Aiken. At the combine he ran a 4.64, which is what some DEs run. But he can catch, and he could be productive because Eric Moulds gets all the coverage anyway. But don't look for him to run away from anyone.

C-) Denver -- If I were them, I'd have picked up some corners, given the way the Raiders carved them up in that Monday night affair last year with Gannon going 34-for-38, remember? But no, not a cornerback, nor any kind of DB for that matter, graced their draftboard. What do we call it, drafting arrogance, or what? So we're looking at T George Foster, size, potential, great upside -- you know all the cliches -- on the first pick, and Terry Pierce, a 250-pound ILB (something wrong with Al Wilson?) on the second, and I'm sorry, but I'm not real excited about the Broncos' draft anymore. Check that, I am kind of intrigued by RB Quentin Griffin, the 5-7, 195-pounder with the 4.43 speed, just to see how Mike Shanahan works him into his offense.

C-) Green Bay -- The Packers say Grossman never was in their plans. Scouts outside the organization say, Oh yes he was. We'll never find out until Grove Press publishes Mike Sherman's memoirs, but who needs Rex Grossman, anyway, when you can draft Nick Barnett in the first round. Outside LB, rated No. 2 behind Boss Bailey, great athlete without great linebacking instincts. Special teams, here we come. Second round, Kenny Peterson, DT-E tweener. Next comes DT James Lee, 327 pounds, 4.88 40. Wow. Is it possible to figure the thrust power involved in such mass moving so fast? They say he wears down in games. Small wonder, moving all that weight around so quickly.

C-) Miami -- The Dolphins' No. 1 went to New Orleans in the Ricky Williams deal last year. They've just picked up Junior Seau. So I'd say the bulk of the action is outside the draft room. I could throw a lot of names at you -- overachievers, underachievers, workout warriors, etc. -- but I'm sure that by now you're ready to pack it in with this gigantic phone directory I'm producing. So I'll just mention one guy who intrigues me, J.R. Tolver (fifth round), a big receiver without real deep speed but the recipient of 128 balls last year. A large version of former Dolphins great, Howard Twilley. Anyone still remember Howard?

C-) Pittsburgh -- They played with a very short deck. Only five picks on their slate, but I really like the No. 1 guy, Polamalu, the dynamic safetyman with the 4.34 speed. Round No. 2 went for DE Alonzo Jackson, a one-dimensional edge rusher. Just what they need, right? I mean, he'll join the collection. Keep your eye on the fourth-round pick, QB Brian St. Pierre. He could figure in there somewhere. I've just put you, my weary readers, to the test. Do you hate those meaningless cliches as much as I do? Now here's what I really mean to say about Brian St. Pierre: If I had a name like that, I could really go places.

MOPIN' AND GROPIN'

D+) Arizona -- Worst sacking team in football for three years. Desperate for a rusher. So they trade out of the Terrell Suggs spot for a wideout, Bryant Johnson. Yeah, he's a good player, but gosh ... Then with their second No. 1 they go for a DE but a real green one, Calvin Pace, kind of an intriguing guy who generated considerable interest at the projected second- or third-round area but not this high.

D+) Tampa Bay -- No first-round choice. Speed rusher, DeWayne White (second) will join a rush unit that unhinged Oakland last year. Chris Simms (third) lines up alongside four other QBs in camp in a three-stay, one goes, one sees Europe and plays a little overseas ball shootout. Then thump, thump, thump, here come the big guys, the O-linemen. I guess it's an OK draft. Maybe the Bucs shouldn't be way down here. I'm just too tired to change it.

YES, BUT...

These teams get two grades, one for their draft last weekend, one for the entire package, including the veteran who came in lieu of a draft choice.

Washington -- Grades of D without Laveranues Coles, B- with him. I think this guy is a knock-'em-dead receiver who will make Steve Spurrier look like a genius. It's a great pickup, whatever they had to pay him. The draft? Taylor Jacobs (second round), a 4.48, polished receiver who worked under Spurrier at Florida. They also got a big, athletic, underachieving G/T, Derrick Dockery (third) and Gibran Hamdan (seventh), 6-5, 240 pounds of quarterback or whatever you want to call it. And that's our trifecta from the nation's capital.

Atlanta -- Grades of D without Price, C with him. Playing across from Moulds, Price was very effective in Buffalo. Now that he's the go-to guy, well, that'll be the test. The Falcons' draft leads off with CB/S Bryan Scott (second), and whenever you see that slash-S after a cornerback you know that he might be too slow for the position. FB Justin Griffith (fourth) did 29 reps at the combine. You want to have him around if your car gets a flat and you don't have a jack. Wideout Jon Olinger (fifth) is 6-3, 217. When I started watching pro football, tackles were that size. Time to pack it in, folks, when the ghosts start marching through the mental rooftops.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. His "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on SI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z, click here.


 
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