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The cream rises to the top Champions Cup quarters feature Europe's finest
Posted: Tuesday March 28, 2000 11:37 AM
And then there were eight. It took one-hundred and forty four games to whittle the 32 teams in the Champions League proper down to the last eight, prompting the traditionalists to complain that things were much better in the old, straight-knockout, European Cup. Maybe so. For one thing, there surely would have been less games. Under the old system it would have taken just 48 matches to reduce 32 clubs to eight quarterfinalists. Whether this is good or bad is open for debate. What is pretty clear however, is that the more games you play, the more the cream rises to the top. In a two-leg encounter, anything can happen. Sheer luck, a breakout performance, a goalkeeping blunder, Diego Maradona swooping onto the pitch in the Hindenburg and pawing the ball into the back of the net, all these things (well, maybe not the latter) can help a weaker team overcome a stronger one. Individual episodes dictate winners and losers. But over the course of twelve matches (that's how many the quarterfinalists have played in the Champions League proper) you can rely on happenstance only so much. The better teams inevitably emerge. It's not my opinion, it's statistical fact. Increase the sample (i.e. the games played) and you'll diminish the impact of aberrations, of the unusual and of the unlikely. Of course, to establish what the best club in Europe in the 1999-2000 season really is, you'd have the top 32 clubs playing each other week in, week out, for a whole year. That, however, is obviously unworkable, so this is probably the best you can do. With the quarterfinal knock-out stage however, everything changes. Over 180 minutes, given the quality of the clubs left in the competition, anybody can win, which makes predictions incredibly risky. If you want to talk in terms of relative strength, three of the four encounters are no-brainers. Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Lazio are miles ahead of Chelsea, Porto and Valencia respectively. The former are all still in the running to win their domestic titles. Of the latter, only Porto is likely to grab domestic gold, but that's in the Portuguese League, which is a whole other matter. Manchester United and Real Madrid is more of a toss up, though one would think the defending champions have the edge. United does not necessarily have a stronger squad, but it is a more settled, stable team and hasn't had to endure the turmoil, controversy and Anelka-related shenanigans that Real has been dealing with all season. So there you have it. Logic would dictate Barcelona v Lazio and Bayern Munich v Manchester United in the semifinals. The problem is that logic often has little to do with the game. Just take a look at Manchester United's path to the title last season. Coming back from a 2-0 deficit away to Juventus in the semifinals and winning is not logical. And scoring two goals in the last two minutes to beat Bayern Munich after being outplayed the entire game is most definitely not logical. So you need to consider intangibles when making predictions. You need to weight current form, injuries, gut feelings, referees and the price of tea in China. You may still look like a moron if you get it wrong. At the risk of appearing like a total schmuck, here are mine. Barcelona v Chelsea: These are two clubs who can play some of the most attractive soccer in Europe. Louis Van Gaal's squad is heavily favored, but Chelsea tends to overachieve against quality opposition, as it did in both legs against Milan and in the Premiership when it thumped Manchster United, 5-0. Gianluca Vialli's club creates loads of chances, but its forward corps' finishing has been about as accurate and effective as a drunk attempting to dissect a fly with a chainsaw. Still, as long as you create opportunities (and Barcelona's weakness is that it gives up chances to opponents) you're in with a shot. Everything will be decided in the first leg. If Chelsea can win by a margin of two goals (a tall order, but not an unthinkable one) it can go through to the next round. Otherwise, it's curtains for Vialli. Bayern Munich v Porto: The problem with Porto is that it has largely failed to raise its game against top opponents this season. It is surprisingly efficient at beating the teams it's supposed to beat, but equally predictable at losing when it's supposed to lose. It has surprised only once, a 2-1 home win over Real Madrid in the first stage. Beyond that, it has totally failed to capture the imagination. Throw in the fact that Bayern is one of the most consistent clubs left in the competition and things don't look pretty for Porto. Ottmar Hitzfeld has steered the team through injuries, suspensions and controversy without missing a beat (though lately Bayern has been hiccuping in the Bundesliga). He'll guide them past Porto as well. Lazio v Valencia: Valencia has impressed many this season and has one of the most promising young midfielders around in Gerard. It also has Claudio Lopez, arguably the world's most feared counterattacking striker (who, ironically, is a lock to join Lazio next season) and a bright, uncompromising manager in Hector Cuper. Beyond that, Lazio has the edge in just about every category. How many Valencia players not named Lopez could crack Sven Goran Eriksson's starting lineup? That's pretty much the key. Lazio has one of the deepest and most talented squads in Europe. It can beat you in so many ways and is stuffed with match-winners, from Sebastian Veron to Pavel Nedved and from Sinisa Mihailovic to Diego Simeone, as Chelsea discovered last week. And that's just in midfield! The downside is that, despite Simone Inzaghi's recent scoring exploits, there hasn't been a reliable scorer up front. Also, this team is more psychologically fragile than most, if things don't click right away, it can fall apart. Valencia will have to play out of its skin to sneak through. Real Madrid v Manchester United: It's the round's glamour tie. Real has had a nightmare season but, remember, it wasn't firing on all cylinders two seasons back either, when it last won the Champions League. Manchester United is vulnerable at the back, where neither Mickael Silvestre nor Henning Berg are top drawer stuff and Real is still packed with talent. If anything, Real's season from hell might help the club foster some unity and perhaps that extra drive to win this competition. Real's strike force of Raul and Fernando Morientes seems ideally suited to give United's backline fits. And, while Sir Alex Ferguson has a clear edge in midfield, Real has too many guys who can win games singlehandedly to be written off. Then there's goalkeeper Iker Casillas. If you believe in fairytales, then it seems inevitable that he will lead Real at least to the next round. It's close, painfully close. Manchester United hasn't been as dominant as it was last season. Real Madrid won't be intimidated. This one will go down to the wire, but if Real wins, don't be too surprised. EXTRA TIME The UEFA Cup draw seems ideal for an all-English final. Lens has been overachieving all season and, at some point, its luck will run out. Arsenal's back four may be old and battle weary and held together with crazyglue, but the front pairing of Nwankwo Kanu and Dennis Bergkamp will probably be too much too handle. Look out for the stellar confrontation in the middle of the park between Patrick Vieira and Olivier Dacourt, the two guys who, in my opinion, should really be anchoring the world champions' midfield. It's high time that a Turkish club win something in Europe. This could be Galatasaray's year. Gheorghe Hagi wants to go out with a bang and he has a great supporting cast in Gica Popescu, Buruk Okan, Arif Erdem and Hakan Sukur, not to mention a guy who knows a thing or two about winning in goalkeeper Claudio Taffarel. It could all be too much for Leeds, a young talented club with a budding superstar (Harry Kewell), a rock-solid defensive partnership (Johnathan Woodgate-Lucas Radebe) and a bunch of eager, enthusiastic kids who don't fully understand the magnitude of what they're achieving. This can be both a strength and a weakness. Either way, Galatasaray has the edge. London-based Gabriele Marcotti writes a weekly column on international soccer for CNNSI.com. To submit questions or comments to Gabriele Marcotti,click here.
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