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How rumors get started Transfer speculation can easily get out hand
Posted: Saturday April 08, 2000 01:22 PM
When I was a little kid, my favorite part of the soccer year was the summer. Each day brought more rumors and speculation, more names, more possibilities, more virtual stars to adore over the next season. I was one of the dorks who would spend hours writing out various permutations of what my favorite club's team sheet might look like next year. We needed a right back, because Player X was getting old. Could we afford Player Y? Or would we be better off with Player Z, who cost less and was coming off injury? Don't laugh. If you're reading this, then odds are you were a fan as a kid and you did the same thing (in fact, some of you probably still do). All that fantasizing fueled by acres of smudgy newsprint during the summer holidays would go up in smoke when the season started and you realized that the coveted Brazilian striker you were staking your future on was nothing but a dud. Somehow, it didn't matter. Transfer speculation is one of the sweetest aspects of being a fan. Now that I write about sports for a living, a sizable part of my job consists of covering the transfer market. I'm slowly discovering how it works, where the banner headlines come from and I've discovered the kind of reporting -- and, in some cases, lack of reporting -- that is behind them. At the risk of being permanently banned from the fraternity of sportswriters who cover transfer market activity, here are a few things you should know about the summer rumor mill: Most sportswriters get their news from other sportswriters. If this sounds like the cat chasing its tail, well, it is. Want an example? Witness the birth of a transfer story. Step One: Wolfgang in Munich sits there wondering who Bayern Munich can get to bolster the midfield next season. It occurs to him that Palmeiras' Alex might be a good fit. So he calls his buddy Ricardo in Rio and asks him how much Alex might cost and whether he'd be willing to go to Bayern. Step Two: (note: if Ricardo is lazy you can skip this step altogether and jump directly to Step Three) Ricardo calls Palmeiras and is officially told that the club isn't commenting. Off the record, he is told that there haven't been any offers, but that every player has his price. Ricardo then phones Alex's agent who says, off the record, Alex is happy in Sao Paulo, loves Palmeiras, but would consider a move to Bayern. Step Three: Ricardo tells Wolfgang that Alex would cost US $20 million (if he's not sure about the price, he just makes it up) and that Alex might accept a move to the Bundesliga. Step Four: Wolfgang duly notes Ricardo's wisdom and writes a story suggesting that Alex might solve Bayern's midfield problems. Meanwhile, Ricardo writes a story in his newspaper that Bayern Munich is being linked to Alex. Step Five: Other German journalists, including Wolfgang, hear about Ricardo's story, and write their own stories about Alex and Bayern. Back in Brazil, other newspapers see that Alex is being talked about in Germany and take it as confirmation that their own stories are correct. Step Six: This prompts more speculation from Germany and Brazil.
It soon becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as steps five and six are repeated ad infinitum until either: Option A is unlikely, mostly because clubs like the idea of their players' being hot commodities. Palmeiras may say Alex is not for sale, but it won't deny having received inquiries about him, even if there haven't been any. Option B either validates the Bayern story or, at least, provides another story. Which basically only leaves Option C. This cycle may seem ridiculous, but it happens countless times. There are, at most, ten journalists in the entire world who really know what is going on in the international transfer market. These guys, one way or another, are behind 90 percent of the legitimate transfer stories you'll read. They are the ones who cover transfers all day, every day. They talk to players, they talk to agents, they talk to general managers. People tell them things, not because they are nice guys, but because they understand the importance of media coverage and being talked about. Very little is generally said on the record, but they know how to get their point across. They are used by the soccer world, but it's a two-way street. They'll plug an agent's player or make a club chairman look good in exchange for an accurate transfer story. These guys are the ultimate insiders and they tend to work in countries such as Italy, Spain, Brazil and Argentina, places where generally relations between the soccer industry (clubs, players and agents) is good. You won't find them in England, where it is notoriously bad. Few transfer stories are ever totally made up by journalists. However, many journalists are woefully ignorant, especially when it comes to other countries and they are easily duped. True story. Last summer there were reports in England that Newcastle was going to buy Fiorentina's Rui Costa for US $10 million. Anybody who knows how to spell Serie A would have known that Rui Costa was not for sale and that, if he had been, for US $10 million you could have at most gotten Rui Costa's nail clippings. And yet, the story ran and ran and was even picked up by the major wires. Why? Because there were people in England whose interests were served by having fans believe that Newcastle was going to get Rui Costa. What made this story ridiculous was that they were stupid enough to place a ridiculously low price tag on his head. If they had been more realistic, their ploy would have worked, and the story might have been picked up worldwide. What this all boils down to is that the summer transfer speculation extravaganza is fun, but often way off the mark. This doesn't mean that the media simply make things up or that their stories are untrue. It's just that often the truth isn't the story itself, it's what's behind it. Smart, experienced and, above all, knowledgeable reporters know how to sift through the spin and deliver something close to the truth. The rest will take rumor as fact and print it accordingly. When a paper in another country publishes their same story they'll give themselves a pat on the back and take it as confirmation, rather than just the spreading of a fallacy. Perhaps however all this doesn't really matter. Perhaps we don't really want the truth. We would much rather believe that our trio of new signings are going to play like Zico, Zidane and Zubizarreta, rather than Huey, Dewey and Louie. And we definitely want to continue believing that with just a few million dollars more, our beloved club chairman can get us Beckham or Batistuta. After all, it's just the off-season. Once things kick off we'll all come crashing down to earth anyway. London-based Gabriele Marcotti writes a weekly column on international soccer for CNNSI.com. To submit questions or comments to Gabriele Marcotti, click here.
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