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Breaking down Euro 2000
Posted: Thursday June 08, 2000 03:50 PM
London-based Gabriele Marcotti writes a weekly column on international soccer for CNNSI.com, and in addition will be contributing to CNNSI.com extensive coverage of Euro 2000. To submit questions or comments to Gabriele Marcotti, click here. Group A:This is a case of the old (Romania) vs. the ancient (Germany) vs. the confused (England) vs. the fickle (Portugal).Erich Ribbeck's team has plenty of experience and a nice scrapbook filled with fading memories, but make no mistake about it, this is possibly the worst side Germany has fielded in an international tournament since before Lothar Matthäus was born (and that's a long, long time ago). Still, if there's one thing Germany does well, it's capitalizing on opponent's mistakes while making very few of its own. That should be enough to overcome Romania and Portugal and sneak into the quarterfinals. 
The midfield trio of Sergio Conceicao, Rui Costa and Luis Figo is as talented as any in the world. If Euro 2000 had a three-on-three playground version (like basketball) it would be a smart bet to put your money on these guys. Alas, you need 11 men to play soccer, and Portugal has a porous backline and a lightweight attack. Throw in the fact that there are more than a few volatile heads, from Sa Pinto to Fernando Couto, not to mention Joao Pinto, who was dumped by Benfica after the umpteenth run-in with club management, and you get a distinctly uncomfortable feeling. Romania in many ways is Germany redux, as it tries to coax one last hurrah out of its Golden Generation of Gica Popescu, Dan Petrescu and, of course, Gheorghe Hagi. It would be a fairy tale if it went far, but being in the same group with Germany and England is a harsh wake-up call. England may well be the most tactically inept team in the tournament, but it does battle on for 90 minutes and always seems to manage to keep it close. When you do that, there's always a chance of nicking a goal, either on a set piece (with Tony Adams, Alan Shearer and Sol Campbell, there's no shortage of guys who can head the ball effectively and in David Beckham, Kevin Keegan has a free-kick virtuoso) or on the break. It's not always pretty to watch, unless you get excited by bone-crunching tackles, but it's effective. Shearer isn't the same player he was four years ago, but Keegan seems to think he must play at all costs, which means that all England can do is cross its fingers and hope for the best. This is a team that plays on raw emotion, which is why, with a little luck, it should beat Germany, get a decent result against the other two and top the group. After that, it's anybody's guess.
Group B:If this tournament had been held nine months ago, you might have liked Sweden's chances to make the semifinals. Instead, injuries to Henrik Larsson and Stefan Schwarz have crippled the team, while guys like Daniel Andersson, Niclas Alexandersson and Joachim Bjorklund have struggled after beginning the season brightly. Larsson is back, though nobody knows if he's going to be any good, and the rest of the side is saddled with similar question marks.Turkish hopes are high following Galatasaray's UEFA Cup success and there is some genuine talent here. Alas, there also is very little big-time experience and the crushing weight of a public that always expects the impossible. Hakan Sukur should give opponents a fright, but it won't be enough. Italy suffers from the facts that its media and fans seem to bear a personal grudge against manager Dino Zoff, probably because the azzurri have been so god-awful in recent months. Losing its star goalkeeper (Gigi Buffon) and star centerforward (Christian Vieri) didn't help either, but at least Francesco Toldo is an exceptional replacement between the sticks. The strike force is a mess -- nobody knows who will play -- but there is enough talent and certainly enough motivation (especially from Alex Del Piero) up front to score a few goals. That's all it really needs to do, since the backline of Fabio Cannavaro, Paolo Maldini and Alessandro Nesta is as solid as they come. Because Italy always seems to start slowly, look for Belgium to win the group. Robert Waseige has a sharp tactical mind and he has managed to overcome Belgium's lack of talent by fielding a tight, cohesive team that has consistently ground out results. That, coupled with home-field advantage, should enable Belgium to win Group B.
Group C:Slovenia is the Cinderella team of the tournament and, barring major acts of God, it will return to pumpkin status in the first round. Enjoy the silky skills of Zlatko Zahovic while you can, because he won't be around for very long.While Egil Olsen is gone, his dopey long-ball game has not been forgotten, which means that Norway will still be a prickly opponent. There is talent in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Tore Andre Flo, but it's hard to see how the team's chaotic style can get them enough decent service. Remember, these are actual footballers who like the ball played to their feet, not big lumps who are happy just to chase balls in the air. Yugoslavia is the usual mix of delightful talent and demented minds. It can beat just about anybody on the day, and players like Sinisa Mihailovic, Predrag Mijatovic and Dejan Stankovic can win games single-handedly. The problem is that this is a weary, aging team that is still forced to rely on a weary, aging (albeit legendary) playmaker such as 35 year old Dragan Stojkovic. It will be enough to go through to the quarterfinals, but after that, things will get real difficult. This will be Spain's best chance to finally exorcise the demons that have made it consistently underachieve throughout the years. Jose Camacho has a talented squad that knows how to win. Guys like Fran, Juan Carlos Valeron and Gaizka Mendieta are hungry for superstardom, while veterans Fernando Hierro and Pep Guardiola provide experience and leadership. Then there is Raul. Real's Golden Boy is coming off an injury but has what it takes to take Spain to the next level. This could be remembered as Raul's European Championship, and, despite his tender age, he doesn't shirk the responsibility. The key for Spain will be getting off on the right foot. A bad result against Norway means it will have the press on its back and will probably have to face Yugoslavia in the crucial third match needing a win. At that point, it will get ugly. This is a team that has yet to prove it can win consistently when the going gets tough. Still, expect them to grab first place in the group.
Group D:This is probably the toughest group, so there will be little shame for Denmark if, as expected, it finishes bottom. The Laudrups are gone for good, Peter Schmeichel's heroics can't go on forever and it's difficult to see Ebbe Sand and Jon Dahl Tomasson (or whoever Bo Johansson plays up front) scoring goals at this level.France could be the first big name to go out in the first round. Roger Lemerre has gotten things under control after his post-World Cup hangover, but several key players (Didier Deschamps, Emanuel Petit, Laurent Blanc) are coming off shaky seasons. Thierry Henry, David Trezeguet and Nicolas Anelka can be electrifying, but they can also be as limp as year-old lettuce. On paper, it's hard to bet against this bunch, but something isn't quite right... ...and the Czech Republic could be the one to exploit it. Okay, so Jozef Chovanec's team steamrollered its way to Euro 2000 by beating up on footballing minnows and its qualifying record needs to be taken with a tub of salt. But this is a cohesive, tactically sound team with genuine talent in midfield (Patrik Berger, Pavel Nedved). Reaching the final in Euro 96 provided a huge boost of confidence, and the strike force of Jan Koller and Vratislav Lokvenc (assuming Chovanec plays them together) could well be the tallest in history. No, height doesn't equal talent, but it means they'll be awkward to defend and they will be able to bully their way into creating space for Nedved's runs. Before you write them off remember: nobody gave them a chance in 1996 either... Which leaves the Netherlands to take the prize in Group D. Motivation, talent and drive abound in Frank Rijkaard's team and they match up very well with both France and Denmark. They should be a lock to make the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinals:A funny thing could happen here. You could see three second place teams edging past group winners. Germany will prove too strong for Belgium (Waseige may be a brilliant tactician, but if there's one thing history teaches you, it's that you don't outcoach Germany. You have to outplay them, and he simply doesn't have the players to do that).Italy will get by England, as Keegan's creaky backline will be exposed by the movement of the azzurri's forwards. The Czech Republic (heck, it's my darkhorse for the tournament, why not stick with it?) can beat Spain, provided Camacho's men don't score in the first half. If that happens, as we've seen in the past, you can see Spain getting frustrated and falling apart down the stretch. And Holland should have no trouble disposing of Yugoslavia or possibly Norway.
Semifinals:The Czech Republic's run should come to an end against Italy. The azzurri rarely get upset in the latter stages of international tournaments and by this point (one hopes), Zoff will have gotten the lineup right.The other semifinal, Holland vs. Germany, will be a classic. In the end, age will catch up with Ribbeck's men, and the Oranje will romp home to the final.
Final:Kluivert and mates will be too much for Italy. It's hard to see the azzurri's midfield no getting overrun by Clarence Seedorf, Edgar Davids et. al. A comfortable win for Holland.
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