Transfer time

Plenty of bargains for anyone willing to roll the dice

It's transfer time again, but you wouldn't know it from the lack of activity across the continent.

If it gets any more dead, you can expect tumbleweed to roll along at any minute. Few clubs seem to have any money to spend: those who do are feverishly trying to bargain down the price as best they can.

We know why the game finds itself in this situation. The last six years have been marked by outrageous overspending, what Alan Greenspan might have called "irrational exuberance."

It came at a time when television companies were falling over themselves, shoveling cash into the game to secure ever-more expensive rights while marketing men were convincing club chairmen that the sport had barely scratched the surface in terms of exploiting its commercial potential.

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Clubs spent heavily, mostly on player salaries (which was all the more serious because, unlike transfer fees, wages don't remain in the game) in an attempt to achieve success and thereby strengthen their brand. A "stronger brand" could, in turn, demand more money from TV companies and attract more and better investors.

We all know what happened next. The bubble burst. TV rights stopped rising and, in many cases, declined. Most clubs' commercial ventures lost money and potential investors quickly dried up. Too much was spent on player salaries while the cash-flow hiccuped and slowed.

Which leaves us with the current situation: very little money is changing hands. As Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger says: "The transfer market is flat. Italy, Spain and Germany have no money. There is a little bit in the Premiership, but clubs are very careful how they spend it."

It's a bear market, but the upshot is that it's also a buyer's market, for somebody willing to gamble a little bit.

Players who would have cost US$20 million or more a year ago can now be had for less than half that amount.

Take Kleberson for example. He's 23 years old, he has just won the World Cup and he's the kind of strong, all-around midfielder clubs over which clubs ought to be salivating. Atletico Paranaense has put him up for sale and you can sign him for no more than US $8 million. Given his age, that's an absolute bargain.

Even more amazing is the situation involving his Brazil colleague, Ronaldinho .

True, he comes with a little bit of baggage -- his run-ins with Paris St. Germain boss Luis Fernandez do not bode well -- but the kid is just 22 and is already one of the top six or seven attacking midfielders in the world. PSG is in serious financial difficulty; show up with US$15 million in cash and you can walk away with one of the hottest commodities in the game.

For the price of what Juan Sebastian Veron cost just eighteen months ago (US$45 million) you could probably sign an entire world-class midfield: Ronaldinho, Kleberson, Lazio's Dejan Stankovic and Real Madrid's Santiago Solari. All are 26 or younger, all are proven internationals, all are up for sale.

And yet clubs are being cautious, which, I suppose, makes sense. Yet it's also worth remembering that, in some cases, the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction. Fiscal probity is great, but the aim is to win trophies and make money, and sometimes a little bit of investment can go a long way.

Especially since, for all the burden of players' wages, most contracts are for three years or fewer and, therefore, reducing the wage bill is not that difficult: You may not be able to dump overpaid players as easily as before, but you can still wait for their contracts to expire.

Investing heavily would take a lot of guts, of course, and it would be the ultimate counterintuitve move in the current transfer climate. Then again, history shows us that, in any recession, those who often end up on top are the ones who invest when the market bottoms out.

Have we hit rock-bottom yet?

It's difficult to say for sure, but there can be little question that there are plenty of bargains to be had for anyone willing to roll the dice.

GOOD WEEK/BAD WEEK

Good week: Everton wonder-kid Wayne Rooney, who ended speculation over his future by signing a five year with the Premiership. The 17-year-old man-child bleeds Everton blue, but the fact that his negotiation had taken so long (he changed agents as well) did cause some concern. Now he can revel in the fact that his future is secure and he's probably the wealthiest teenager in the city of Liverpool.

Bad week: PSG striker Fabrice Fiorese, who was banned by the French League (LFP) for three matches after he admitted diving and feigning injury in a match against Bordeaux earlier this season. Fiorese's actions won PSG a penalty and resulted in an opposing defender being sent off. This type of post-match review and punishment sets an important precedent and is exactly what is needed to help curb the proliferation of diving (or, "simulation," to use FIFA's term).

Good week: The South American Under-20 championships, which are probably the single biggest showcase of future talent in the game. The matches are tight and exciting, the players are gifted and enthusiastic and you can already see European scouts going into overdrive. Among those to keep on eye on, Argentina's Fernando Cavenaghi, and Brazil's Dagoberto Pelentier and Diego Carvalho.

Bad week: Inter Milan, who was whipped 4-1 by Perugia and then spent the next two days complaining about the refereeing. Granted, Perugia's first came off a very dubious penalty and, on the second, Greek striker Zizis Vryzas clearly punched the ball into the back of the net, but Inter would be best served by focusing on its own shortcomings rather than blaming others.

Gabriele Marcotti covers international soccer for CNNSI.com.

 

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