Top 10 contenders for U.S. Open

It's a myth that only a handful of players can win a U.S. Open. Well, maybe it's true, but you never know which handful can do it in a given week. Who foresaw Retief Goosen and Mark Brooks in 2001? Lee Janzen in '98 or '93? Hale Irwin, of all people, in '90 on a special exemption?

The U.S. Open contenders are relatively predictable. Consistent players such as Jeff Maggert, Tom Lehman and, once upon a time, Colin Montgomerie, often lurk on the leaderboard. Even some unpredictables such as Phil Mickelson and Sergio García have made runs.

MAILBAG A trip to the bottom of an empty Mailbag. Here's stuff I never got around to answering before, which means I must be getting desperate to pull them out now. I recently switched from a standard-length putter to a 52-inch-long putter, and I need some advice. I have experimented with various grips, left-arm positions, ball positions, open and square stances, and weight favoring my left foot vs. equal weight. All this experimenting has left me with limited success. Can you give me some rules to follow for the long putter? How about instructional articles on the long putter? —Kevin Conway, Lecanto, Fla. I didn't answer this earlier, Tim, on account of ... I've got nothin'. How about a little help, readers. Anybody got any good info on how to use the long putter ... and isn't too embarrassed to admit it? What's your prognosis for David Duval? Will he rally? I think he's too good to be taken off life support. —Al Farrell, Webster, N.Y. I knew if I sat on this letter for six or nine months, Duval would shoot a good round and take me off the hook. He posted a 62 last weekend in what used to be called the Kemper Open and now is known as the FDR New Deal Boswell Redskins Snyder Get Lost Jordan Classic Open, I believe. So the prognosis now, AF, is looking better. Do you subscribe to the popularly held view that forged clubs are only for low-handicap players and all others should use cavity-backed irons? —John Porter, Wellesley, Mass. No. I subscribe to Sports Illustrated, David Feherty Is Insane Weekly and Model Train Anarchists Monthly. However, perimeter-weight, cavity-backed clubs are obviously more forgiving and easier to hit, but golf doesn't lend itself to universal laws. Some companies are blurring the lines there, like with the sharp-looking Hogan Edge irons. The only real way to tell if a brand of clubs is for you is to play them. Which is why I urge people to try demo days, rental sets and borrow clubs from friends. Buy clubs only after you've used them for a round or two, not after you hit balls into a net in some discount store. Given the lack of real golf strategy being practiced on the PGA Tour (driver-wedge to every par-4), do you think it would be interesting to exchange two par-4s for two par-3s on a tournament course? The course would play at par 70 with six par- 3s, eight par-4s and four par-5s. This way, the pros would have to make use of more than just a couple of clubs in their bag. —Michael Moore, St. Petersburg, Fla. Sure, I think that would be a novel twist. Why don't you get to work building those new tees you'll need in the middle of the fairways, Michael, and let me know when you're ready for the tour boys.

Who's going to win the U.S. Open this week at Olympia Fields? The short answer is: I don't know. The long answer is ... my top-10 list of most likely champions. (Remember, this comes from a guy who's brilliant stock picks have included MCI, Gemstar and Marconi.)

1. Vijay Singh. Never mind that he's had a couple of weeks to extract the foot from his mouth after his infamous comments about Annika Sorenstam at Colonial -- "I hope she misses the cut," among others. It's bad form to root against another player, not to mention impolite. No matter, Veej is on his game. He already has two wins this year and he might have taken the Memorial if Kenny Perry had stopped taking Tiger Woods pills. The putter has always held Singh back, especially in majors such as the Open. It seems like he finally has it figured out with his crosshanded grip on a belly putter. If he wins the Open, he'll have three-fourths of a career Grand Slam. It would be a good story ... not that he's going to tell it to the enemy, the media.

2. Mike Weir. Stop laughing, eh? Never has a Masters champion dealt with less Grand Slam talk. Or fewer expectations, which is all good. This gritty little Canadian's game has always been impressive, so why is no one expecting him, after three wins already in 2003, to win the Open, too? Beats me, unless maybe it's because he's a humble, normal, everyday guy. Or because he's a lefty and we all still have a major Mickelson hangover. Weir's first big breaks on tour were in Chicago -- he contended in a Western Open and the PGA at Medinah before turning in not-so-swift final rounds. He's a big hockey fan and Chicago is a big hockey town (if only it still had a team). Maybe if Weir wins the Masters and the Open and takes dead aim at the Grand Slam, we'll finally stop underrating him. Take off, eh?

3. Tiger Woods. Ranking him third probably will put me on Tiger's enemy list. Hey, he's the obvious choice. A child of 4 could pick him to win the Open. Unfortunately, no one as qualified as a child of 4 is writing this column. It's hard to criticize a guy who's won three tournaments this year. On the other hand, his last win was three months ago and he hasn't won any of the last three majors. A better nine-hole stretch Saturday at Riviera or Muirfield Village and he might have two more wins this year. But he doesn't. I don't wonder about his knee, which he had fixed in the offseason. I wonder if he's played enough tournament golf to be truly tournament sharp. Sure, he won at Torrey Pines after a long break, so maybe it doesn't matter. But at the Memorial on Friday and Saturday, he looked like a golfer who had reached into his pocket for his A-game and realized he'd left it back at the hotel. One final thought: Never bet against Tiger Woods. Usually, you lose.

4. Kenny Perry. He's the latest guy we've dubbed Hottest Golfer on the Planet. First it was Ernie Els, then Woods, then Weir. After blitzing the fields at the Colonial and the Memorial, if Perry shows up at Olympia Fields wearing a red cape and tights, no one will be surprised. A major would certainly legitimize his place in golf history. Plus, you can't root against a guy this nice -- he built a public course in his hometown, has donated more than half a million pazoosas for scholarship money to his favorite college, and likes muscle cars. Olympia Fields could be his '69 Camaro.

5. Padraig Harrington. The Irishman took some lumps for skipping a big European tour event a few weeks ago because it didn't fit his Open preparation schedule ... and, oh, yeah, he'd never played worth a darn on that course. He has sneaked into the top 10 in the World Ranking and quietly has become Europe's best golfer. Like Perry, he's another member of the first-team All-Nice Guy squad. His game is solid and he's very studied in his approach to playing. Last year he faced down Woods on Saturday at Bethpage Black, a nice learning experience. This could be his week.

6. Retief Goosen. The South African's game has rounded back into form. Which means he's one of the world's top six golfers. Very steady, very even personality -- to the point where you wonder if he's real. You could hold a lighted match under his hand and he wouldn't flinch, he'd just look at you and say in his usual monotone, "That's getting a little hot, you know." He has the game to win any of the four majors.

7. Jeff Maggert. Because he's a quiet, unassuming guy who hasn't finished off a lot of tournaments he coulda-shoulda won, he sometimes is discounted. I disagree. I think he has plenty of guts. He's shown it under pressure in the Ryder Cup, the Presidents Cup and majors. His run at last year's Open, on what was supposedly a long-knockers' course, was phenomenal. He was right there at Congressional, too. And at the Masters this year -- don't forget, he wasn't that far back despite two Sunday disasters, a 7 and an 8, in the final round. If he's going to win a major, it likely will be an Open. I like him to bounce back from Augusta.

8. David Toms. The former PGA champ doesn't receive enough credit for his game, either. He blew away the field in Charlotte for 71 holes this year, then lost concentration (or something), made an irrelevant 8 on the final hole and still won. PGA setups frequently are tamer copies of USGA setups. His PGA Championship win at Atlanta Athletic Club (a former Open site) was just as good as an Open.

9. Jim Furyk. He's tough, he's gritty, he's the Jason Kidd of golf. He isn't the most physically talented but he gets it done. He's done everything but win this year -- the closest was that called-on-account-of-darkness-and-Scott Hoch playoff loss at Doral. If Furyk wins the Open, suddenly it's going to appear as if he's having a fantastic year.

10. Darren Clarke. A month ago, he was my sleeper pick to win this thing. He's been working hard, very hard, with Butch Harmon on his game. Clarke seems to have turned a corner with his, shall we say, work ethic. He's too good not to be winning three times every year in Europe. He wasn't far off at the Masters -- he had a blazing 36-hole finish but had made a couple of hasty bogeys trying to finish before dark Friday night so he could go out on the town and sleep in the next day. From what I hear, he's more motivated than ever. It's going to pay off soon. This is the week I think he's really been pointing to.

Official darkhorse picks from the home for the aged and infirm: Hale Irwin and Nick Price. Irwin, the all-time king of senior golf (sorry, I'm not calling it the Champions Tour anytime soon), also used to be Mr. Open, having won three of these things. I played Olympia Fields last year and didn't think length was an issue. Iron shots will be, however, and Irwin has been one of the best iron players in the game. The same goes for Price, who's such a solid ballstriker and who knows he only has a few more grabs at the golden ring. Don't write them off. And don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Gary Van Sickle writes for the magazine's Golf Plus section and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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