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Upset special

Wildcats' defense will stifle Blue Devils

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by Grant Wahl, Sports Illustrated

Arizona will win if: the Wildcats can play straight-up man D as well as they mixed up man and zone against Michigan State in Saturday's semifinal game. Duke shoots too well from the perimeter for Arizona to play much zone, which means Richard Jefferson (likely on Shane Battier) and Jason Gardner (likely on Jason Williams) will have to push their marking all the way out to NBA three-point range. Arizona's biggest improvement since January has actually come on the defensive end, where the Wildcats' pressure (12 steals against the Spartans) creates easy points going the other way.

Duke will win if: Carlos Boozer wins the battle in the lane against Loren Woods. As the third option, Boozer was magnificent against Maryland on Saturday. If he can do the same against Arizona, the Blue Devils will have weapons firing from outside (Williams), inside (Boozer) and all over (Battier). That's just too much for the Wildcats to overcome. Boozer's task won't be easy, though. After hearing so much about his supposed softness, Woods proved on Saturday that he's not a pushover.

Player to watch: Battier. Take special care to watch Battier during his final college game. I saw him play live for the first time this season on Saturday, and when you do, you get a chance to see all the remarkable little things he does on the court, especially on defense. (Poor Lonny Baxter couldn't even get his shot off before Battier would strip it.) Though Battier won't be matching up against Woods, look for him to make Woods' life difficult when it comes to help defense.

X factor: Gilbert Arenas' shoulder. Arizona struggled in the second half against Michigan State when Arenas went to the locker room with a shoulder injury he received while crashing through the lane. Arenas says he'll be ready tonight, but if he isn't at 100 percent he'll be less willing to gamble for the steals he's known for. Arizona doesn't need Arenas to score (he only had 12 points against Michigan State) but the Wildcats do need him to be active at both ends of the court.

Prediction: Arizona. The Wildcats' defense made Michigan State look like a CYO team at times, preventing the Spartans from making simple wing passes. Nobody expected that. Nor do most pundits look for Arizona's D to fluster Duke. I think it will -- through quickness and good old-fashioned in-your-shorts harassment. Steals lead to easy points, and Gardner will make sure the Wildcats limit their own turnovers at the offensive end. Now take that trophy back to Tucson.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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