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Some Top 20 surprises
Posted: Thursday November 15, 2001 12:43 PM
Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl answers your college basketball questions every Wednesday. Click here to send him a question.
And so my annual preseason college hoops tour has come to a close, but not without some memorable moments. From the victory-impaired Bulls of the University at Buffalo to the always-flush Kansas Jayhawks, from tiny Morris Brown College to mighty Mizzou, I've already seen and heard plenty this season.
I got the lowdown on the "Dirty South" tattoo on the arm of Iowa forward Reggie Evans. I learned that Kansas coach Roy Williams is a hardcore Tina Turner fan. And I got to ask Missouri's Kareem Rush the question everyone wants to ask: "Don't you ever get pissed off at Clarence Gilbert when he jacks up another off-balance 22-footer?" (For his response, click here.)
It's a pleasure to get the 'Bag going again, and since most of the preseason questions are of the "So how does (fill in the blank) look this year?" I thought I'd give you my preseason Top 20.
1. Duke
Call me lame, but how can you pick against the Devils? They have the guy who should have been last year's player of the year ( Jason Williams ), the guy who will win next year's POY ( Chris Duhon ), a Bill Bradley clone ( Mike Dunleavy Jr. ) and a Gene Banks/Maurice Lucas -type post guy ( Carlos Boozer ). It can't hurt that transfer Dahntay Jones appears to have been the only former Rutgers player not permanently scarred by the fallout from the naked-windsprints ordeal under Kevin Bannon. Plus, I've already used my quota of dumb No. 1 preseason picks this year (see: Oregon State, football)
2. Kansas
Star forwards Nick Collison and Drew Gooden have tried hard to conceal their joy that Eric Chenowith has skipped town, but this is the definition of "addition by subtraction." The Jayhawks' new three-guard offense has two solid vets ( Jeff Boschee and Kirk Hinrich ) and a dazzling frosh ( Aaron Miles ). Burly rookie Wayne Simien will be a stud off the bench upfront as KU (upset warning!) beats Duke and UCLA in Maui next week.
3. Kentucky
Despite laughing uncontrollably when I first saw how thin Tayshaun Prince was three years ago, I've gotta admit, the guy's a player. (Somehow he led the Cats in rebounding, among other things, last year. If he'd only get a 'fro like his brother Tommy, ex-Pepperdine, we'd be onto something....) Watch for the graduated Saul Smith to get some belated respect in the Bluegrass as J.P. Blevins has his ups and downs running the point for the deepest team in the land.
4. St. Joseph's
Marvin O'Connor is my favorite player in college basketball, if for no other reason than he already has two tell-your-grandkids games to his credit (the 18-points-in-the-final-minute jaw-dropper against La Salle and the 37-point barrage against Stanford). Cynics warn that St. Joe's lost both those games, but with super-smooth point guard Jameer Nelson and a steady frontline, the Hawks have what it takes to survive nine or 10 losses and ride Marvelous Marv to the Final Four. (Bonus: Alexandre Sazonov allows continued use of the excellent phrase "7-foot-1 corn-rowed Russian.")
5. Illinois
I would have had the Illini higher (perhaps even No. 1) had I not been deeply concerned about three things: 1) Cory Bradford just may not be that good; 2) Lucas Johnson's absence (after a knee injury) will hurt more than people think; and 3) I wouldn't bet the farm on Brian Cook showing up every game. It's a measure of how much I love Frank Williams that Illinois is No. 5. Good thing Bill Self is at the helm; if Jerry Green were coaching this team it would be a carbon copy of last year's Tennessee Volunteers.
6. Southern California
Sam Clancy = stud, and with David Bluthenthal (the real Jewish Jordan) and crafty PG Brandon Granville, the Trojans are going to do more damage than people expect -- and (you saw it here first) win the Pac-10. Another surefire bet: Coach Henry Bibby will rip his team and take all the credit.
7. Iowa
Reggie Evans? Reggie Evans! The Hawkeyes' fearsome double-double machine would be enough to scare opponents by himself, but with Luke Recker patrolling the backcourt Iowa is primed to take Illinois down to the wire in the Big Ten. Look for Evans to become a national star this season, particularly if he can develop some offensive polish in the paint (and hit a few more free throws).
8. UCLA
I'm still trying to figure out how a pseudonym-signed e-mail to the UCLA athletic department could actually trigger a serious investigation into Steve Lavin (unless "Dave Gibson" is actually AD Peter Dalis, a Lavin nemesis). In any case, if new PG Cedric Bozeman is smart enough to get Jason Kapono more shots (and I think he will), UCLA will be just fine. Matt Barnes may qualify as the Most Annoying Player in the Country to Opposing Teams, and Dan Gadzuric started to show signs last season that he might actually understand the game of basketball.
9. Stanford
Just when you thought I was off the Cardinal bandwagon, I'm still riding it, folks. There's no law that says Casey Jacobsen can't win national player of the year, and if the Card stay healthy (this means you, Curtis Borchardt and Justin Davis ) I like Stanford's chances. Newcomer Josh Childress will certainly help fill the void left by the early departure of Jason Collins. Random thought: Teyo Johnson is the best combination hoops-football player in the country, even better than Julius Peppers. Discuss.
10. Florida
I've been waiting two years for Brett Nelson to become a first-team All-America, so this is the year, pal. With a battle-hardened cast (Nelson, Udonis Haslem, Justin Hamilton, Matt Bonner ) and some sweet freshmen ( David Lee and James White ), the Gators join Kentucky as the class of the SEC. My only question is, why aren't people ripping Teddy Dupay more for screwing up royally and losing his last season of eligibility due to alleged gambling ties? Can you say Goat of the Year?
11. Oklahoma State
Mo Baker, Victor Williams and Freddy Jönzén wouldn't be identified in a lineup outside Stillwater, but these guys are legit. (See them beat Cincinnati on Friday and find out.) Every team needs a defensive specialist as well, and shot-blocking menace Andre Williams fits the bill.
12. Maryland
The Terps seem destined for one of those inexplicable downers after last year's breakthrough season (see: Oregon State, football). Maryland has too much talent ( Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Steve Blake ) not to pull off some big wins, but Gary Williams runs too much on negative energy, even when things are going well. Look for the Terps to revert to pre-2001 tournament form when it really counts.
13. Missouri
I had the Tigers in my top 5 until I saw them in person not long ago. Granted, Kareem Rush is a guaranteed first-team All-America, but he also wears the albatross that is Clarence Gilbert around his neck. Good coaching ( Quin Snyder ) and a stronger inside game will serve the Tigers well, however, particularly if 6-11 Nigerian Uche Okafor becomes eligible. Pointless aside: When Wesley Stokes is running, doesn't he look like a comic-strip character with "action lines" extending behind him?
14. Virginia
If the 'Hoos finally play some defense they'll be a force in the ACC. I'm still trying to figure out who Roger Mason Sr., is, but Roger Mason Jr. is ready for a breakout year, and the Cavs have enough experience to displace North Carolina from the conference's top three for the first time in a bazillion years.
15. Arizona
Will Jason Gardner do what Jason Terry did three years ago and suddenly become a force now that the other guys have left town? Maybe so, if the Coaches vs. Cancer IKON Classic was any indication. Should we have doubted that Lute Olson's freshmen would be ready to play? Or that Luke Walton would be a Luke-of-all-trades? Who said West Coast basketball was down this year, anyway?
16. Memphis
Hype Juanny Wagner all you want, but since when has a one-year-and-done star ever led his team on a deep NCAA tournament run? ( Stephon Marbury is the best I can come up with, and when you sink that low you know it ain't a pretty picture.)
17. Georgetown
Well, I have to have at least one Big East team here, right, so why not the Hoyas? While covering G-Town in the NCAA tourney last year, I really got to like Craig Esherick (in many ways for being everything his pal John Thompson is not). The Hoyas aren't a pretty team, but they get it done. Keep an eye on super-soph Mike Sweetney.
18. Gonzaga
They aren't going to do it to me again. Everyone knows that Dan Dickau is one of the top five point guards in the country, but Blake Stepp and Cory Violette can fill it up as well. Stepp may not play against Illinois on Friday because of a slow-healing knee injury, so don't hold the Zags to their performance in Champaign.
19. Syracuse
Preston Shumpert and DeShaun Williams have what it takes to be stars, but the big question is whether the supporting cast is good enough. I've learned never to count out Jim Boeheim, though.
20. Western Kentucky
After dealing with stiffs like Eric Chenowith, Alvin Jones and Dan Gadzuric over the past few years, it's refreshing to see a 7-footer who can actually move like Chris Marcus. The Hilltoppers' showdown with Kentucky should give us an early check on how good WKU really is.
Yes, we actually answer a few Mailbag questions, too
Strange as it may sound, I missed the season's opening weekend to be at Diego Maradona's farewell game in Buenos Aires. My apologies for a late start to the 'Bag, but you'll have my undivided attention from now on. Questions, please ...
Who besides Duke can win it all?
—Greg, Los Angeles
Well, this is the big one, right? I think there are about 10 to 15 teams that can do it, and while you'll have to wait until January for my Magic Eight (my annual infallible list of the eight clubs from which I guarantee the national champ will emerge), a few teams already stand out. Kansas, St. Joe's and Southern Cal, in particular, strike me as three teams that may appear in most Top 25s but should get even more respect than they do.
Take a closer look. All three have a player who can take over a game (Drew Gooden, Marvin O'Connor, Sam Clancy), a steady bookend if the star has an off night (Nick Collison, Bill Phillips, David Bluthenthal) and a tough-as-nails point guard (Kirk Hinrich, Jameer Nelson, Brandon Granville).
Whether that will be enough to dethrone the Devils is another matter. Right now I don't see it happening.
What are your thoughts on the Big East?
—Scott Hesse, Auburn, N.Y.
I think the Big East has more teams between No. 20 and No. 35 than any other conference. Boston College would have made my Top 20 if Troy Bell was completely healthy. Providence will still be tough, Connecticut could win the league (especially if Caron Butler has improved as much as people say he has), and Notre Dame will survive without Troy Murphy. If there's any school that might pull what BC did last year, keep an eye out for West Virginia.
What does the future hold for the Indiana Hoosiers, who lost Kirk Haston to the NBA, lost top recruit Sean May to North Carolina, and likely will lose Jared Jeffries in the next year or two?
—John Paul McDonnall, Terre Haute, Ind.
Don't worry about the Hoosiers. Despite Bob Knight's successful efforts to woo May away from Bloomington, Mike Davis is a fine coach and recruiter who earned the head job last year. Losing Haston hurts in the short term, but Jeffries will be a force this season and should lead the Hoosiers to a top-three finish in the Big Ten. And you know what? Even if he doesn't, it won't be time to burn Davis at the stake. Give him some time to put his own stamp on the IU program.
Random music interlude
Dogged reporting reveals that the undisputed CD of choice for players these days, from Nick Collison to Kareem Rush to Duez Henderson, is Jay-Z's The Blueprint. You won't find that in my traveling case, but here are my Top Five CDs for the Drive from Kansas City to Columbia, Mo.:
1. Manu Chao, Próxima Estación: Esperanza
2. Miles Davis, The Complete Birth of the Cool
3. Air, 10,000 Hz Legend
4. Pixies, Surfer Rosa
5. Soundtrack, O Brother, Where Art Thou?
Any CD suggestions for future trips? Send 'em here.
Back to regular programming
I was wondering why no one seems to be talking about North Carolina this year. I think the Heels are going to surprise a lot of people. Where do you think they will be in the preseason polls?
—Brian Chambers, Wilmington, N.C.
Well, they aren't in mine. This won't be a Final Four year in Chapel Hill, but you know what? I think this year's Heels might be remembered in a similar way to Rick Pitino's Kentucky team the year the Wildcats had to start over from scratch. There isn't a lot of talent here ( Kris Lang is the star, for god's sake), but you're never going to question the effort these Tar Heels give on the court. When UNC goes back to making Final Fours next year, the best fans will remember this year with fondness.
(Now watch them go out and win the ACC.)
That's all this week. In the meantime, I need a new weekly department this year, something like the Where Are They Now? file from last year's 'Bag. Any ideas? Or should we just continue WATN and see if we can finally track down Alan Ogg and Michael Graham for real this time? (Any other nominations? Send them in.)
Click here to send your college basketball question to Grant Wahl.
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