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Perfect possibilities

Examining the chances of seeing an undefeated season

Posted: Wednesday December 19, 2001 1:30 PM
  Grant Wahl - Mailbag

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl answers your college basketball questions every Wednesday. Click here to send him a question.

Now that the 'Bag is (amazingly) in its third year, we're able to do annual events, which is another way of saying, "I don't have any better ideas this week, so let's crank up the Golden Soufflé Award again." Faithful readers will recall my fascination with undefeated college basketball teams, a feat that has been achieved only once in my lifetime (by the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers) and perhaps never will be again.

Keep in mind, since the Hoosiers reached the holy grail, only two teams (Indiana State 1978-79 and UNLV 1990-91) have entered the NCAA tournament with perfect records, and both failed to seal the deal.

Do any of this year's eight remaining candidates have a chance to attain sports immortality? Almost certainly not, but I still like to think it could happen. Before we look at the list, note one thing: There are very few undefeated teams this year in mid-December, evidence that suggests the NCAA's Cupcake Police have had a real effect on scheduling.

That, after all, was the lesson we learned last year, when the committee gave Georgia (16-14, but 27 in the RPI) a bid to the NCAA tournament but hosed Alabama (21-10, but 51 in the RPI). Some teams still don't get it, though, which brings us to...

THE WORST UNDEFEATED TEAM IN THE COUNTRY
In honor of the magazine story that brought us "Schools for the Dumb Rich" -- the institutions which have the highest tuitions but the lowest average test scores -- we once again expose the Hampden-Sydneys and Denisons of the college hoops world. This year's Golden Soufflés go to:
Mississippi State (10-0)
Best win so far: at Georgia State
Odds of going undefeated: 1 zillion-to-1
Will face reality on: Dec. 21 vs. Cincinnati
Hats off to the Bulldogs, who have cleaned up on A&Ms (Florida A&M and Alabama A&M) and hyphenates (Arkansas-Little Rock, Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe), but the end of line comes Friday against the Bearcats. Word to coach Rick Stansbury: Cupcake schedules are OVER, pal. Get with the program.

(Honorable Mention: College of Charleston, which is 5-0 against D-I teams -- and weak ones at that -- but bungled its chance for Golden Soufflé glory by falling at home to Division II Belmont Abbey, not to be confused with D-I "powerhouse" Belmont.)

THE JURY'S STILL OUT
1. Virginia (6-0)
Best win so far: Auburn
Odds of going undefeated: 20,000-to-1
Put up or shut up time: Dec. 20 at Georgetown
The Hoos wouldn't be in this category were it not for the polar ice cap known as the Richmond Coliseum (which caused the game against Michigan State to be postponed). But let's be honest: Who thinks they have a snowball's chance to beat Duke three (or even four) times this season?
2. Miami (9-0)
Best win so far: Indiana
Odds of going undefeated: 50,000-to-1
Put up or shut up time: Jan. 2 at Georgetown
Nice W over the Hoosiers, but I'll need to see more from the surprising Hurricanes. Might they be this year's B.C.?
3. Boston College (9-0)
Best win so far: UMass
Odds of going undefeated: 40,000-to-1
Put up or shut up time: possible matchup this weekend vs. Georgia at the Rainbow Classic
Can Al Skinner do it again? Troy Bell and Ryan Sidney think so, but beating Morris Brown won't win any converts.
TEAMS THAT CAN BACK IT UP
1. Duke (10-0)
Legit wins: Ball State, Iowa, Kentucky
Odds of going undefeated: 60-to-1
Next big test: Jan. 17 vs. Maryland
Could they? It's a longshot, but Duke's heart-stopping win over Kentucky drops the odds into double digits. Coach K has run the table in the ACC before, which is no small feat, but it's going to take a lot of luck, continued dominance over Maryland and consistent transcendence by Jason Williams and Mike Dunleavy. Seeing the Devils make a run for it in March would be WAY cooler than another one of those semi-annual all-time home run record chases.
2. Butler (10-0)
Legit wins: at Purdue, at Ball St.
Odds of going undefeated: 15,000-to-1
Indiana's finest avoided Ole Miss in winning the Top of the World Classic. "Going undefeated" odds are better because Butler isn't in a power conference. Impressive in their convincing win in the Mid-Major Showdown of the Year at Ball St.
3. Marquette (9-0)
Legit wins: Indiana, Gonzaga
Odds of going undefeated: 20,000-to-1
Next big test: Dec. 22 at Wisconsin
Nice wins at the Great Alaska Shootout. It's an achievement just to be in this category, but look for an L or two (or more) in C-USA.
4. Oklahoma State (10-0)
Legit win: Cincinnati
Odds of going undefeated: 20,000-to-1
Next big test: Dec. 22 vs. Arkansas
Beating Cincy was even more impressive than people realized at the time, but we'll see what the Pokes are made of in a tough three-game stretch against Arkansas, Ball State and Texas.

Let's go to the 'Bag....

UConn is less than three years removed from its national championship, and Jim Calhoun has always been able to attract talent. You would think UConn would have been loaded for years to come, yet there has been a definite falloff. What happened? Was he caught short by players leaving early?
--Tom Kleckner, Plano, Texas

Good question, Tom. Granted, Rip Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin left early, which hurt but didn't necessarily surprise anyone. The fact is, Ajou Deng never panned out (and transferred), nor did Doug Wrenn (who transferred as well). Caron Butler is an imposing talent, but Tony Robertson hasn't become the nationally known player that his predecessor at the point was. Big-man Aussie Justin Brown is serviceable, but it makes you wonder if Calhoun made a mistake by going too foreign (Deng was from Sudan). The only reasonable conclusion is that UConn's recruiting has taken a dip. Whether it's a sign of a permanent downturn or simply a cyclical drop remains to be seen, but it's a clear message that winning a national title doesn't make recruiting a lead-pipe cinch. (Which is why all credit needs to be given to Duke for continuing its talent haul in recent years.)

LETTER OF THE WEEK

From recent WATN subject (and former LSU stalwart) Geert Hammink in Thessaloniki, Greece (and yes, I even e-mailed him back to get a phone number and confirm that it was the Windmilling Dutchman himself):

Just saw the WATN feature and almost fell off my chair. I use your site to keep up with b-ball that is played at your side of the ocean as TV coverage is (very) limited. I just can't believe I was the subject of your search. Wish I would've read the mailbag last week; I could've saved everybody a lot of work. (In short: After the two-years-almost-no-minutes-stints with the Magic/Warriors I went back to Europe, first in Greece, then three years in Germany, then last year back in Athens and now a little north in Thessaloniki (Aris). That's assuming anybody cares. As far as being "ground-bound" in my early career, that certainly hasn't improved. At age 32, I'm happy to be able to touch the rim once a week -- on a good day, during warm ups, when nobody is looking. So no more "windmill-dunks", Louisville Pat!

Anyway, Grant, thx for making me a WATN subject. I didn't think anybody remembered.

I, of course, almost fell off my chair to know that actual players bother to read the 'Bag. With one letter, Geert, you have become the first inductee into the 'Bag Hall of Fame. Good luck in Greece!

Is Mark Gottfried really the coach to bring 'Bama back to national prominence? When he came home to Tuscaloosa a few years ago it was as if a run back to the Sweet 16 (or farther) was guaranteed within a year or two. So far so ... status quo. Then last year he had the talent to compete with anyone in the country and couldn't get off the bubble. What's the deal?
--Jason Skinner, Birmingham, Ala.

Granted, Gottfried had a lot of talent last year, but it was young talent -- and the Tide played like it. This year's team is more experienced, and the loss of one-and-done Gerald Wallace hasn't hurt much at all. Another bonus: Gottfried finally figured out he had to schedule some tough non-conference games. Example: Tuesday night's win against Temple in what was, more or less, a road game. When it comes down to it, Gottfried has learned the hard way that being ranked in December is no guarantee of success (or even a tournament berth) come March. He's not an idiot, though, which is why I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 'Bama in the Sweet 16 this year.

I've seen Gonzaga play three times, and after they pounded Washington it occurred to me that this might be the best chance in a long time for a mid-major team to reach the Final Four. The Bulldogs can shoot, rebound and play solid defense. Do you think Gonzaga or any other mid-major could reach the Final Four?
--William Sutter, Cambridge Springs, Pa.

If you look at the record books, a mid-major hasn't reached the Final Four since 1979, when both Penn and Indiana State made it. The timing is no coincidence, since mid-majors had a much better chance of advancing far into the tournament when there were fewer teams competing -- and when only one team per conference was allowed in. Gonzaga came awfully close in 1999, losing to UConn in the regional finals, so I think it's theoretically possible that a mid-major could go all the way to the Final Four, but it's so difficult. Keep in mind, mid-majors are almost never given anything higher than No. 10 seeds, which forces them to play tough teams from the first round on.

What most impresses me about Gonzaga is that its run of three straight Sweet 16s has come under the leadership of not just one, but several top-flight players, guys like Matt Santangelo, Richie Frahm, Casey Calvary and Dan Dickau. Newcomers like Blake Stepp, Corey Violette and Zach Gourde only figure to carry on that tradition and continue building on their tournament experience, which is why I'd pick the Zags as the most likely mid-major to make a Final Four. (Perhaps they'll soon campaign against being called a "mid-major", just as they've bristled at the term "Cinderella.")

Is it getting tiresome watching Duke play? Are they becoming the Yankees of college basketball? It just seems frustrating to me -- they always get the best recruits and are on TV endlessly. What's your opinion?
--Chris Black, Oshawa, Ontario

I hear where you're coming from, Chris, and yes, I do think teams should have a limit on how many times they can appear on national TV each year. There's an entire world of college basketball that you never see if you're only watching ESPN. At the same time, as a college basketball fan I love watching Duke play (and I'll cite the Kentucky game as evidence). The storyline of this year is simple: Can anybody beat Duke, and if so, how are they going to do it? That's compelling enough for me, as long as we don't see it repeated year after year for the next decade, which I don't envision happening.

WATN: ANTOINE (THE JUDGE) JOUBERT FOUND!

Finally caught up last week with Antoine (The Judge) Joubert, the former Jheri-curled, big-caboosed backcourt running mate of Gary Grant at Michigan, and we had a fun chat. The Judge has returned home to Farmington Hills, Mich., after spending the last decade playing in Venezuela, Argentina, the Philippines, France, Belgium and (the last four years) Poland.

"I was going to go back to Poland this year, too," he says, "but I decided not to after Sept. 11." Instead, Joubert, 36, is spending time at home with his wife, Jennifer, and two kids, Alexandria and Jacob, while weighing his options -- either to play another year or two, or to get into coaching at the high school or collegiate level.

"It's been a great experience seeing different cultures, and the basketball is really good over in Europe. The hardest part has been trying to figure out all the languages, though." Polish, for example, is a ridiculously difficult tongue, though the Polish newspapers made things easier by printing Joubert's nickname simply as "The Judge" and skipping the translation.

And as for the endomorphic build that once caused Scott Skiles to call Joubert "Fat Boy"? "That's just a myth," The Judge argues. "If we had the uniforms these guys wear now, people never would have said that. Those uniforms were so tight, man. You see us playing on ESPN Classic today and you realize how much the game has changed -- uniforms, styles of play, everything. I still weigh around 210, 215, which is what I've always weighed."

One wonders whether The Judge took an oath before saying that. In any case, the 'Bag wishes him the best.

Now give me some help with the most recent WATN subject: Where in the world is Las Vegas legend Richard "The Fixer" Perry? Even if you don't know, the most creative answer will get published.

Enjoy the holidays. I'll see you in January.

Click here to send your college basketball question to Grant Wahl.

 

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