Reviewing preseason picks

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl answers your college basketball questions every Wednesday. Click here to send him a question.

In a fit of nostalgia for my sophomore year of college (or was it this year's Fox baseball playoffs jingle?), I picked up the Smashing Pumpkins' Greatest Hits CD last week. Tremendous stuff, naturally. As I was listening (and wondering when my evil twin, Billy Corgan, will bring his new band, Zwan, here to Seattle) I could only hope my preseason Top 20 picks had held up half as well as the Pumpkins had.

(Lame segue. I know. Work with me here.)

And you know what? As we enter the maw of conference season, I feel pretty good about my prognostications. Sure, St. Joe's has been a total clunker, but 15 of my 20 are still in the AP's top 20 and three of my Final Four picks look solid. So check out the hits and misses of my preseason Top 20:

1. Duke
Record: 12-1
Current AP Rank: 2
HIT: Never mind the hiccup in Tallahassee. Everyone agrees the Devils are still the team to beat.

2. Kansas
Record: 12-1
Current AP Rank: 1
HIT: How many other preseason polls had the Jayhawks this high? A murderous stretch (at UCLA, at Okie State and home vs. Oklahoma) awaits, however.

3. Kentucky
Record: 8-3
Current AP Rank: 8
HIT: The classic OT loss to Duke reconfirmed to me the Wildcats have all they need to reach the Final Four.

4. St. Joe's
Record: 7-4
Current AP Rank: NR
MISS: And a doozy. So you want to be called Saint Joseph's? Win a few games and we'll think about it. You guys have been killing me. How could you lose to Eastern Washington? Or Georgia State? Or North Carolina? Injuries aren't the whole story here, either.

5. Illinois
Record: 12-3
Current AP Rank: 9
HIT: Way back on Nov. 15, we said Lucas Johnson's absence would hurt the Illini more than people thought it would or we would have ranked them even higher.

6. USC
Record: 12-2
Current AP Rank: NR
MISS: I could argue it's a PUSH, really. Early-season losses to Fresno State and Pepperdine lowered the buzz, but my preseason pick for the Trojans to win the Pac-10 still stands. (They're 4-0 heading into Thursday's showdown against UCLA.) BTW, how is USC not in the AP poll while Boston College is? Go figure.

7. Iowa
Record: 12-4
Current AP Rank: 13
PUSH: The Hawkeyes can be schizophrenic (losing to Northern Iowa, then whomping Missouri on the road), but we still like their toughness over the long haul.

8. UCLA
Record: 11-2
Current AP Rank: 11
HIT: I ran into Earl Watson the other night at the Sonics game, where he pointed out the Bruins are undefeated ever since Cedric Bozeman got hurt in late November. Props to Steve Lavin for getting his team on a roll after a shaky start, especially on defense.

9. Stanford
Record: 8-3
Current AP Rank: 14
PUSH: The Cardinal may be ranked, but we expected Stanford to be better than this. Curtis Borchardt has been the nation's top 7-footer, which makes up for the fact that Casey Jacobsen may not repeat as an All-America.

10. Florida
Record: 12-1
Current AP Rank: 3
PUSH: Time to show me some quality wins, Gators. Your current ranking is looking pretty inflated.

11. Oklahoma State
Record: 13-1
Current AP Rank: 6
HIT: Great start by the Cowboys, but losing at home to begin the Big 12 wasn't ideal.

12. Maryland
Record: 11-2
Current AP Rank: 4
PUSH: Excuse me, but did the pollsters even see Oklahoma destroy the Terps not long ago?

13. Missouri
Record: 11-3
Current AP Rank: 17
PUSH: We suspected the Tigers had been overranked in most preseason polls, but nobody thought their Achilles' heel would be the perimeter game.

14. Virginia
Record: 9-2
Current AP Rank: 7
HIT: Wow, talk about empty calories in that pre-ACC schedule. The Cavs are starting to show their true colors with two straight losses.

15. Arizona
Record: 9-4
Current AP Rank: 20
PUSH: The Wildcats have looked awfully ordinary after their remarkable start. Losing twice (big) to Oregon wasn't in Lute Olson's plans.

16. Memphis
Record: 10-4
Current AP Rank: NR
PUSH: In November, we questioned whether a one-and-done player like Dajuan Wagner would create chemistry problems. Answer: You betcha.

17. Georgetown
Record: 8-5
Current AP Rank: NR
MISS: Ugh. Ever since that early-season loss to Georgia, you can just sense the Hoyas don't have what it takes to win the games that count.

18. Gonzaga
Record: 12-2
Current AP Rank: 18
HIT: Bull's-eye, baby. We said we weren't going to let the Zags surprise us again and they aren't. A genuine Final Four contender.

19. Syracuse
Record: 13-2
Current AP Rank: 11
PUSH: Two odd home losses to Georgia Tech and N.C. State, but both came without Jim Boeheim. To which we say (WARNING: Olive branch forthcoming), the guy can coach a little bit.

20. Western Kentucky
Record: 12-3
Current AP Rank: NR
PUSH: I'm not ready to call this a total miss yet, not with Chris Marcus still out and the Hilltoppers cruising along on their current 8-1 stretch.

THE UNSUSPECTED FIVE

These five current AP top 20 teams didn't make my preseason list (much to my chagrin, in some cases):

Oklahoma
Record: 12-1
Current AP Rank: 5
Who knew Ebi Ere would turn into the difference maker for the Sooners? The state of Oklahoma (OU, OSU, Tulsa) is blessed with three sweet teams again.

Cincinnati
Record: 13-1
Current AP Rank: 10
Smile, Steve Logan. Really. Just once. You're a great player, so start acting like you enjoy this once in a while!

Alabama
Record: 13-2
Current AP Rank: 14
The Tide has gone about this season the right way, scheduling tougher opponents and quietly winning games on their way (finally) to an NCAA tournament bid.

Boston College
Record: 12-2
Current AP Rank: 16
Even at No. 16, the Eagles are overrated thanks to their typical Big East patsy non-con schedule. Let me know when you beat a team that's actually ranked, guys.

Wake Forest
Record: 12-3
Current AP Rank: 19
Better-than-expected start has propelled Deacons into the top 20. Will they stay there now that conference season is in full swing?

Onward ...

Is Duke's Jason Williams now the mini-Shaq? He puts up unmatched numbers from the field, but he can't sink an important free throw to save his life. His ineptitude at the line cost Duke a win against Florida State, almost cost the Devils a win against Kentucky, and has been his one very obvious weak point (watch the tape of last year's championship game). When is he going to learn to shoot while standing still?
—Carlos Goenaga, Houston

It's baffling, really. Williams went 0-for-6 from the line in the loss at Florida State, and he's only shooting 64 percent on his charities all season. As my pal Seth Davis points out in his Sports Illustrated column this week, Williams had a dreadful 1-for-18 stretch over six games late last season. Obviously, some of the greats have succeeded despite being woeful free-throw shooters (Shaq and the Stilt, to name two), but neither one of those guys was a point guard. Don't be surprised if you see Williams getting hacked more and more as the season goes on, particularly when Duke plays deeper teams that can afford to give fouls. It won't be attractive (doesn't everybody hate that Hack-a-Shaq nonsense?), but the word is out about Williams' one glaring weakness.

I'm angry about Mike Davis' whining about the officials and Indiana's lack of success this season. I don't think they would have five losses if Bob Knight was still there.
—Justin Adolph, Normal, Ill.

I'm of two minds on this one. As a journalist, I love it when coaches dispense with the typical b.s. and tell you how they really feel. It's a rarer occurrence than you'd think, which is why I appreciate Davis' candor. On the other hand, the timing of his complaints (about Big Ten referees, his salary, etc.) has been pretty bad, which is why you'll probably see him clam up for a while. As for Indiana's 10-5 record, the losses to Southern Illinois, Butler and Kentucky have certainly lowered expectations, but the Hoosiers' big win over Michigan State on Tuesday should buy Davis some more time. He'll need it, with consecutive road games against Iowa and Ohio State coming up.

Would Indiana have five losses if Knight was still there? Perhaps not. These days, Knight's teams often start well (look at 12-1 Texas Tech) but finish poorly, so the jury's still out.

Is Oregon a good basketball team or do the Ducks just hate Arizona that much? Will they contend for a tournament berth?
—Zach Mull, Eugene, Ore.

The 10-4 Ducks are a surprising 3-1 in the Pac-10 after four games against the Arizona schools, but we'll know a lot more about Oregon's conference chances after a huge homestand this weekend against Cal and Stanford. The good news: Oregon swept Arizona convincingly, Ernie Kent's team is undefeated at home, and I like the way the three-headed monster of Luke Jackson, Freddie Jones and Luke Ridnour can put a lot of points on the board in a hurry. The bad news: The Ducks only have that one road win, and losses to Portland and UMass don't speak well for them. Hilariously, the Tucson media already was handing Oregon the Pac-10 crown last week (after three games!) -- to which the Ducks responded by losing the next day at Arizona State.

Random Oregon story: For my piece last fall in SI's college football preview, I went golfing for nine holes in Eugene with Ducks QB Joey Harrington. I guess he must have thought beforehand that I was a stud golfer because he apologized for not being able to play on a private course instead of the public track we were on. Little did he know that I suck. Harrington, naturally, shot a 38 or something, while I kept spraying balls all over the course with disarming regularity. "Joey," I finally said, "the wheels have come off." His look was a mix of pity and bewilderment: "Well, put 'em back on!" Fun, fun times. Hey, Joey: Look forward to seeing you at Mac Court in your usual red mullet this winter.

Where were we ...

Are you sold yet on the Miami Hurricanes?
—Buster Kantrow, Stockholm, Sweden

Buster, I hadn't realized 'Canes hoops was a frequent topic of conversation in the Land of the Midday Darkness. To answer succinctly, no. Miami followed its first loss of the season to UConn with another L on Tuesday against St. John's (which, by the way, never asks to be called Saint John's, does it?). Thanks to the Big East's weak schedules (why doesn't the conference brass insist on its teams playing tough opponents like Atlantic 10 schools?), I'm dubious of just about every Big East team -- save Syracuse and (drum roll, please) Pitt, which won at Boston College. A five-game homestand should help matters for Miami, however.

What is your opinion on the program Riley Wallace is building at Hawaii? He has scooped some major international talent (Canada and Europe) from the rest of the NCAA. I was impressed by the Rainbows' performance in the WAC tournament last year and wonder if they have what it takes to do it again?
—Ian Davidson, Red Deer, Alberta

Gotta like what Wallace's 13-2 Warriors have done so far. Granted, they didn't play their first road games until the past week (wins at Boise State and UTEP, by the way), but they've had some quality W's against Georgia, Wisconsin and Fresno State. The key lately has been Yugoslavian forward Predrag Savovic, who has averaged 19.9 ppg in his eight games since returning from a foreign-eligibility-related suspension. Talk about cosmopolitan rosters, though: Wallace's boys hail from Canada and Yugoslavia (two each), Israel and Lithuania, South Africa and Nigeria (to say nothing of another from Guam). Now I ask you: Is anyone else in Canada (or any of the other countries) following Hawaii hoops?

Movie interlude

Saw some good stuff over the holidays: In the Bedroom was easily the best of the bunch, followed by The Royal Tenenbaums, Lord of the Rings (no joke) and The Business of Strangers (which I enjoyed, despite some goofy fake tattoos worn by Julia Stiles ). It also hit me, while scanning movie ads in the newspaper, that I could perform a public service of sorts.

You know how those ads always will have positive blurbs from reviewers? And how, if they're from, say, The 60-Second Movie Preview, the movie's never any good? Even more dangerous, however, are the movie reviewers who consistently recommend bad movies -- even though they work for reputable publications. Do not be suckered by any of these film-flammers! Here's my effort to expose the good and the bad (send your thank-yous to the 'Bag here):

THE BAD

Kevin Thomas, Los Angeles Times. Shameless blurb-hound likes EVERYTHING, even if the movie totally blows. Example: "Hardball, a surefire heart-tugger made with skill and judgment, affords Keanu Reeves a career high point. ..." Yikes.

A.O. Scott, The New York Times. Actually called A.I. the best (and most "misunderstood") movie of 2001, which caused uncontrollable laughing in the 'Bag household. Scott will henceforth be known to us as "A.I. Scott."

Rex Reed, The New York Observer. Yammering simpleton called the ultra-lame Serendipity "the kind of movie we need more of right now," as if movies that would have simply been "airheaded" before 9/11 suddenly took on a bizarre, ditziness-is-healing significance afterward.

Also nominated: Joel Siegel, Good Morning America; David Denby, The New Yorker.

THE GOOD

Kenneth Turan, Los Angeles Times. Former sportswriter (a big bonus) had the guts to diss the spectacularly overrated Titanic. Spot on, all the time.

Elvis Mitchell, The New York Times. Anybody who chose the splendid In the Mood for Love as his best movie of 2001 gets my vote.

Anthony Lane, The New Yorker. Rarely likes much, but he's a hilariously negative reviewer. What's more, when he actually does appreciate something, he's always on the mark.

WATN

Last time out we asked if anyone could locate Richard (The Fixer) Perry, the twice-convicted sports racketeer whose infamous hot-tub photo with UNLV players David Butler, Anderson Hunt and Moses Scurry led to the resignation of Jerry Tarkanian.

Turns out The Fixer is on the elite, 37-member "List of Excluded Persons" (also known as the Black Book) who are forbidden from entering Nevada casinos. On Oct. 28, 1992, Perry (aka Richard Daniels, Richard Alan Cohen, Ronald Coleman and Sam Perry) was officially declared "unsavory" and "notorious" by the Nevada Gaming Commission. Well, duh.

Despite being defended by attorney Oscar Goodman (who is now, and I'm not kidding, the mayor of Las Vegas), The Fixer was convicted in 1996 of tax evasion for (guess what?) hiding money from a bookmaking business. These days, he's reportedly residing in Florida, though the 'Bag's minimal efforts to track him down failed. If anybody has seen The Fixer in Florida, please let us know!

All props to Gavin Fritton of Overland Park, Kan., who sent in the best (albeit fictional) response to The Fixer's whereabouts:

"Perry is a hot-tub salesman in Bemidji, Minn. After a couple of years of great sales records, he was given a franchise and now spends about half his time working at the store. He spends a lot of his remaining time on the road, working various conventions in the upper midwest, where his courtesy booths are known far and wide as some of the best courtesy booths to ever grace any home-improvement/real-estate-developer conventions. He is now a huge fan of high school football and will frequently give hot-tub discounts to the families of various players he respects and enjoys watching.

"His nickname is still 'The Fixer,' but now it's more because he personally services and repairs every hot tub he sells."

Next week's WATN:

Where in the world are Rodney Monroe and Chris Corchiani?

Click here to send your college basketball question to Grant Wahl.

Related information
Stories
Grant Wahl's College Basketball Mailbag Archive
Multimedia
Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video
Search our site	Watch CNN/SI 24 hours a day
	Sports Illustrated and CNN have combined to form a 24 hour sports news and information channel. To receive CNN/SI at your home call your cable operator or DirecTV.