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Initial autopsy reports Posted: Friday February 15, 2002 1:04 PM
It happens every year. A team becomes a mainstay in the Top 25 -- even cracks the Top 10 -- and then wets the bed at the end of the season to miss the NCAA tournament altogether. So with Missouri falling out of the rankings this week (after climbing as high as No. 2 in December), it seems like a good time to look at some former AP Top 10 teams whose NCAA tourney berths are by no means guaranteed. Need to win conference for NCAA berth IOWA
What went wrong: What didn't? Reggie Evans and Luke Recker stopped performing, and the Hawkeyes' teamwork has been nonexistent. At 4-8 in the Big Ten, Steve Alford's woefully underachieving team will have to repeat last year's conference tournament surprise just to reach the NCAAs. Don't count on it. ST. JOSEPH'S
What went wrong: The Hawks' 9-2 Atlantic 10 mark notwithstanding, things have been out of whack since that season-opening loss to Eastern Washington. Injuries have slowed stars Jameer Nelson and Marvin O'Connor, but that doesn't excuse a miserable early season performance that included a loss to (gasp) North Carolina. Need to finish strong for NCAA berth BOSTON COLLEGE
What went wrong: Troy Bell has started to heat up again, but his (and his mates') woeful shooting has helped sink the Eagles. Nor did it help that B.C. reached its brief No. 10 ranking thanks to a Stay Puft pre-conference schedule. MISSOURI
What went wrong: The Tigers decided to live and die by the three, which has often meant the latter option. The good news: Missouri is 7-4 in the Big 12. The bad news: The Tigers could still go either way, with tough games remaining against Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas. VIRGINIA Record: 16-6 High-water mark: No. 4 (Dec. 24) Current rank: 15 What went wrong: That giant sucking sound you heard was the Cavs' recent four-game losing streak. We should have known Virginia was vulnerable after its lame schedule in November and December, but who would have thought Pete Gillen's boys would be 6-5 in the ACC and very much on the bubble? ILLINOIS
What went wrong: One of the more bewildering disappointments of the season, the Illini haven't gotten any leadership from Frank Williams, nor have their bigs played consistently at all. And who was it that said Cory Bradford would be a force this year now that he's healthy? SYRACUSE
What went wrong: The Orangemen's shooting and rebounding has failed them during their current 2-5 stretch, which has thrown their once-certain NCAA bid into serious doubt. Upcoming games at Notre Dame and Seton Hall could sound the alarm bells even louder. 'Bagward we go ... Am I the only guy in the country who thinks Luke Walton has a legit shot at
the Pac-10 player of the year award? He doesn't have the rebounding totals of
Sam Clancy, can't shoot the three like Casey Jacobsen and doesn't score as much
as Jason Gardner. Even so, I got two words for you: Triple Double.
Good point, Freddie. Your suggestion is starting to develop critical mass, too. Dick Vitale made his pitch for Walton this week, and I'll throw my support behind the campaign as well (provided Arizona can win the conference). Walton has always been a splendid passer, but lately he's turned into a scorer. I remember having dinner with Luke in Tucson a couple months ago, and he told me he was concerned about his shooting (and searching for that elusive first Triple Double). Well, he's gotten a couple of TDs since then, and his shot has also come around. My suggestion is this: Whichever team wins the tight Pac-10 race also gets the player of the year for the conference. As much as I love Gardner, I'd give it to Walton if the Wildcats turn the trick. Got a few questions this week about LeBron James, the Sports Illustrated coverboy (and high school junior) whom I recently trailed for a week: LeBron dominates in high school because of his size and talent. But is his
mentality up to jumping right into NBA? Or do you think he should go to college
first to develop mentally?
College basketball never hurt anyone, Jeremy, but LeBron's game is so far off the charts -- and just as important, his head is screwed on well enough -- that he's ready to make the jump. We'll see what happens in the next year. LeBron told me that college programs shouldn't give up on him "because I'm not giving up on them," but I have a hard time seeing him go off to school in the fall of 2003. Granted, LeBron has a list of possible schools (Duke being one of them; keep in mind, he has a B-average), but whenever you ask his family what the next year is going to be like, they talk of all the attorneys, agents and shoe companies they'll have to deal with. It's no exaggeration to say that even now LeBron is dealing with many aspects of the pro environment, which is why a rep from the NBA players association recently invited him to go to the league's rookie orientation next summer (you know, the one where rookies are shown the dangers of NBA life, from unscrupulous financial managers to groupies to anything else you could imagine). RANDOM THOUGHT The Kennel at Gonzaga is my new favorite arena. With Rick Rickert emerging as one of the top freshmen in the country, is
Minnesota a viable Big Ten contender that has a shot of making some noise in the
tourney? More importantly, is the scandal finally left for history?
Look, at this point just about anybody is a viable Big Ten contender in what has turned out to be the conference's worst season in decades. But if you're looking for teams that have performed beyond expectations, Minnesota is certainly one of them, thanks in large part to Rickert's emergence. It's going to take a strong regular-season finish and a run in the conference tournament for the Gophers to make the NCAAs, but given the current climate it's entirely possible. As for the scandal, I can see how you'd want it to go away, and it's true that the current regime had nothing to do with the infractions. There's no need to bring it up with Rickert or the current team, but given the breathtaking extent of the cheating under Clem Haskins, we would do well not to forget it happened. I was wondering if you thought there was any way Washington State could
compete in the Pac-10. We're able to field a competitive football program, but
it seems that after Kelvin Sampson left for the greener pastures of Oklahoma, we
have been in a nosedive. What do we have to do to win again?
As I've mentioned before, Pacific Northwest hoops is a strange animal, not least because the best team up here ISN'T in the Pac-10. (That would be Gonzaga, of course.) One thing Sampson never had to deal with at Wazzu was a Top 10 team just up the road in Spokane, one that recruits the region well and has a scary track record in the NCAA tournament. This year Oregon has gone a long way toward stepping up to Gonzaga's class, which leaves Washington and Washington State still trying to catch up. There's a big gap: Washington State has only one win in the Pac-10, and the two Washington schools look like they'll get the booby prize by missing the Pac-10 tourney. Solutions? Besides replacing Washington State with Gonzaga for Pac-10 hoops? That's a tough one. For starters, it's time to keep some of Seattle's top talent in-state. (Washington's Doug Wrenn is the exception that proves the rule, but keep in mind, he only came home after a tough time at UConn.) Otherwise, I'm stumped. I know I sure wouldn't want to coach in Pullman. Lastly, I wanted to pass along some high comedy I found on Lexis-Nexis, the lifesaving database where you can find news clips of all sorts. Turns out it has the voter-by-voter choices for the AP preseason All-America balloting, spelled just as they were received, which didn't exactly make my Fourth Estate colleagues look too good. To wit: Nice to know how seriously everyone takes the All-America voting process. All of these guys must have been figure-skating judges in their previous lives. That's all this week. Let's get some better questions in the hopper, how about it? Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl covers the college basketball
beat and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send him a question.
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