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German studies Posted: Thursday June 20, 2002 11:47 AM
SEOUL -- First, some perspective. As we await the kickoff of Friday's U.S.-Germany quarterfinal, keep this in mind: Since 1930, not one team outside of Europe or South America has reached the semifinal round of the World Cup. The last (and only) team outside of those continents to pull it off was, strangely enough, the United States in 1930. Now, 72 years later, the Yanks are one game from doing it again. If you're looking for comparisons, the U.S.'s astonishing quarterfinal run far exceeds the recent Elite Eight trips of Gonzaga and Kent State in the NCAA tournament. After all, until now the Americans haven't even been a mid-major on the international soccer scene. They've been more like, say, Coppin State, a tournament regular that almost never wins a game and isn't taken seriously by the big boys. So if you're having a hard time wrapping your mind around what the U.S. national team has accomplished here, think of it this way: Coppin State is on the verge of reaching the Final Four.
And it's not Coppin State, America, but rather your own men in red, white and blue. If that doesn't cause you to tune in at 7:30 a.m. EDT on Friday, well, then you don't have a pulse. Enough for the uninitiated. If the Americans are going to beat Germany -- and I think it's entirely possible; Germany was the least impressive of the eight second-round winners -- they'll have to prevent the Germans from running roughshod over them in the midfield, which was exactly what happened during the U.S.'s 4-2 exhibition loss to Germany in March. The Germans are taller, stronger and heavier than the Americans, which is why I expect Bruce Arena will go with a 3-5-2 formation similar to the one he used against Mexico. Here's the lineup I expect to see for the U.S.: Goalkeeper: Brad Friedel Friedel might be the keeper of the tournament, having saved both penalties he has faced. (Of course, another top GK is Germany's Oliver Kahn, who has allowed but a single goal.) If this game is decided on penalties, Friedel and Kahn are both excellent at stopping them. Defenders: Tony Sanneh, Eddie Pope, Gregg Berhalter If the Yanks go with three defenders, the most pressure here is on Pope, who will have to organize the back line against Germany's aerial assault, which targets Miroslav Klose and Carsten Jancker. Given the referees' sudden emphasis on calling restart fouls in the box, the U.S. has to make sure it doesn't do anything stupid to draw a cheap penalty. Midfielders: Claudio Reyna, Pablo Mastroeni, John O'Brien, DaMarcus Beasley (or Eddie Lewis) If Beasley is healthy -- he's been fighting a deep knee bruise -- I expect him to play. Not only has he been dangerous on runs down the left side, but he has also been excellent at tracking back quickly on defense. Likewise, Reyna will have to perform much as he did against Mexico, devoting large chunks of time to defending the flanks and making it difficult for the Germans to send crosses into the box. As a result, this formation will oftentimes look as if it is using five defenders, not three. O'Brien has been solid throughout the tournament and I suspect we'll see Mastroeni once again. Not only is Mastro 2-0 in this tournament when he has been on the field, but if any German tries to bring down an American early (to send a message), Mastroeni will make him pay. Attacking midfielder: Landon Donovan As we saw against Mexico, Donovan is much more threatening when he's in the middle of the field, as opposed to the flanks (where he sometimes gets lost: see South Korea). Supremely fit, fast and hungry, Donovan could play the role of Ahn Jung-Hwan, the South Korean (and bench-warmer in the Italian league) who scored the game-winner against Italy. Privately, Donovan is extremely bitter about the way he was treated at Bayer Leverkusen, where he never got a chance with the first team, and he'd like nothing more than to hit Germany where it would hurt most. Forwards: Clint Mathis, Brian McBride As far as I can tell, McBride is a lock. Whenever he has been healthy, Arena has used him. Mathis is less certain, but his two-goal game against Germany in March and his big-game mentality make him the best candidate in my mind. Another possibility is Josh Wolff, who was solid in the Mexico game and seems to work better with McBride than Mathis does. Whatever you do, make sure you don't tune in late. The first 15 minutes will likely decide the game. If the U.S. can get a goal early, it has shown that it can hold leads (or get a result) against Portugal, South Korea and Mexico. Conversely, if the Yanks give up early goals (as they did against Poland), they're toast. "We basically spotted them two goals," Arena said of the Poland game. "We're not good enough to spot anybody two goals." Especially Germany. Any way you look at it, this is must-see TV. Enjoy. Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl covers soccer for the magazine
and will contribute frequently to CNNSI.com throughout the World Cup
tournament.
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