My simple answer: I think Adu will play in MLS, probably until he's 18 or so. (He says he wants to play first-team soccer, and that gives him the best chance.) But I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that he could skip MLS entirely and go to Europe.

Can Adu even move to Europe? Hard to say. Here, for all you Adu-holics, is the exact text of Chapter VI, Article 12 of the FIFA Regulations for the Status and Transfer of Players (Protection of Minors):

1. International transfers of players under the age of 18 shall only be permitted under the following conditions:

a) As a general rule, when the family of the player moves to the country in which the new club is located for reasons that are not linked with football.

b) Within the territory of the EU/EEA and in the case of players between the minimum working age in the new training club's country and the age of 18, suitable arrangements are guaranteed for their sports training and academic education by the new training club. For this purpose a code of conduct will be established and enforced by the football authorities.

2. The same principles apply to the first registration of players under 18 who have a nationality other than that of the country in which they first request to be registered.

The rule was established in 2001 to prevent European clubs from stockpiling-and exploiting-poor kids from Africa. But does it mean that Adu can't go to Europe until he's 18?

That depends on whom you ask.

FIFA media officer John Schumacher tells me that FIFA will not comment on any situation (Adu included) until a case is formally brought before the governing body. Since FIFA isn't willing to interpret the rule as it relates specifically to Adu, everyone else has their own interpretation. Here are a few:

For his part, the director of Manchester United's youth academy, Les Kershaw, told the Washington Post's Jason La Canfora: "[Adu] is so high profile now that it actually inhibits us. We couldn't get him over here other than through the proper channels."

Then again, Liverpool director of youth recruitment Barry Whitbread told me, "There's always a way." What it may come down to is whether the FIFA rule is as amenable to exceptions as, say, the English work permit rules that allowed Tim Howard's transfer to Man United. For now, we can't know for sure.

Is it possible that Adu could sign with a European club and be loaned to MLS? Yes. After holding fast to its original policy preventing such loans, MLS brought Landon Donovan (another Motzkin client) back to the league from Germany two years ago. Motzkin, however, says such a deal for Adu "is an option, but not a likely option. It's cleaner to have a deal with one partner than with multiple partners."

Which route should Adu take, MLS or Europe?

Lots of opinions here. To wit:

When Adu and I spoke on Saturday, most of his desires focused on Europe. (Look for his thoughts in my piece on him in this week's Sports Illustrated, as well as a list of some of the international clubs that Motzkin has already met with to discuss Adu's future.) But Adu did also say this when asked if MLS had a chance: "Yes. MLS has a chance. I want to play professional ball as soon as possible, and I want to be close to my family too. So that could play a key role in my decision."

Ellinger: "As much action as there is for him abroad, I still feel it makes sense for him to go to MLS at 15 and play. It's nice now that Bobby Convey is going to Tottenham. I feel great for Bobby, but isn't it great how it just opened up an allocated spot for D.C. United? [Adu] certainly would be great for the league, and it makes sense to put him in his hometown. He can't live on his own in a city at 15 years old. He can't even drive. With Bobby gone, you have an allocation. Freddy doesn't go in the draft. He signs with the league, then goes straight to D.C."

Arnold Tarzy (Adu's close adviser and former youth soccer coach): "Freddy would be absolutely huge for MLS. The sheer curiosity would put people in the seats. Freddy has the ability to capture the interest of the casual fan in a way not seen since Dr. J captured the interest of the casual fan for basketball 30 years ago…. A lot depends on MLS coming up with the right plan. I'm not going to say money is totally dismissed as an issue. He could have a career-ending injury tomorrow, and if he puts people in the seats he deserves his fair share. But equally important, he's 14. He'll need an intelligent plan to let him mature with some sense of normalcy and some form of compensation."

MLS' Gazidis (who flew all the way to Finland on Saturday just so he could speak face-to-face with Adu's mother, Emelia, that night): "Our young players have gotten professional opportunities at age 16 and 17, and you can see their development. Bobby Convey is an example. And you look at the problems they've had in places like England, where you've got a team like Manchester United, for example. Nowadays for young players who come out of Man United, unlike David Beckham and his generation, to get playing time in the first team is a real challenge. They have a system of hundreds of kids, and only room for a few at the very top. So it's very much a sink-or-swim environment. They do it very well, and they also nurture young men, but ultimately it's a huge numbers game. In Project-40, we have very limited numbers of players, and we're very focused on each one of them.

"That's a significant thing we bring to the table. The key for Freddy is when he's 20 or 21 to have a range of options at his feet. I have no doubt we can put him in that position."

Can MLS compete with the financial offers Adu might get from Europe?

Gazidis: "I don't know whether we can or not. We've been competitive with many of our players who've chosen to stay in MLS. We can put competitive offers on the table. Of course money is always a factor, but I think for most kids it isn't the most important factor. The most important factor is putting yourself in a position that your career can be what you want it to be."

Tarzy: "It's been shown that MLS doesn't spend money on stars from overseas. Hell, they don't spend money on American stars. Look at Tim Howard and Claudio Reyna. I think it would be out of character for them to do something to make themselves attractive for Freddy to stay here…. If they come in talking about Project-40 and how it's important to play in his own country, well, they do need to come up with some money."

As you can see, a lot remains to be decided. Nobody disagrees that Freddy is an exceptional talent and a remarkable young man whose renown is growing by the day. But at the same time, nobody wants to get ahead of themselves.

"We just need to put some perspective on this," Gazidis says. "Everybody is always looking for the next Pelé or Maradona, and there have been many young players that have been touted as the world saviors of soccer. It's far too much to put on a 14-year-old boy. The key is keeping expectations in check, keeping Freddy's feet grounded, keeping his development on track in a way he can fulfill his potential. If he fulfills that potential, he will be one of the greats. But all of us have to be very careful."

True enough. But it's going to be awfully fun enjoying the ride.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl keeps you up to date with the world of U.S. soccer at SI.com. To send Wahl a comment, question or story idea, click here.

 

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