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Don't believe the hype These four squads will go out like a lamb
Updated: Tuesday March 06, 2001 6:31 PM
The Blizzard That Would Eat New York has come and gone without digesting the Big Apple, and everyone here is annoyed. Of course, everyone in New York is usually annoyed, but that's another story. The difference between the inexact science of predicting weather and the inexact science of predicting football is that those of us who perform the latter don't need satellites and Doppler radar. We can be wildly inaccurate on our own, thank you. So what blizzard of the gridiron is out there now? Which teams look all powerful but will end up blowing out to sea? Which teams, in other words, will be the Alabama and Penn State of 2001? You may recall that last summer the Crimson Tide were a consensus top-five pick and the Nittany Lions were expected to contend for the Big Ten title. Alabama went 3-8, forced out coach Mike DuBose and is in NCAA hot water up to its chin straps. Penn State rallied to finish 5-7. A few likely overhyped teams come to mind. Take Florida State, for instance. Yes, Florida State, the team that has finished in the top four in at least one of the two major polls for the last 14 seasons. Look at what coach Bobby Bowden must replace. The top three quarterbacks from last season are gone: Heisman Trophy winner Chris Weinke and his backup, Marcus Outzen, have graduated. Third-stringer Jared Jones, one of the rare Seminoles recruiting mistakes, is no longer on the team. Redshirt freshman Chris Rix is the heir apparent, unless Bowden decides to move wide receiver Anquan Boldin back to his high school position. Bowden hasn't won 315 games by starting freshmen at quarterback. Don't forget that Rix doesn't have offensive coordinator Mark Richt to hold his hand anymore. And the Seminoles' needs don't end at quarterback. Their top two tailbacks from last season, Travis Minor and Jeff Chaney, have left for the NFL. Four of the five starters on the offensive line are gone, too. Seven defensive starters and punter Keith Cottrell have run out of eligibility. Definitions of rebuilding vary from campus to campus. Yes, the Seminoles have more depth than anyone in the country. They'll win eight games by showing up, especially in an Atlantic Coast Conference where four teams -- Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia and Wake Forest -- have new coaches. But Florida State also has to play at Clemson and at Florida this season. Miami, which will be ticketed for the top five, will play at Doak Campbell Stadium. However, I'm not entirely convinced the Hurricanes will be that good again this season, what with their new coaching staff. But the departure of Michael Vick from Virginia Tech makes Miami's late-season trip to Blacksburg a little more palatable. Don't be so fast to anoint Texas in the Big 12, either. The Longhorns return virtually everyone from last season's 9-3 team. Quarterback Chris Simms, with his strong performances against Texas A&M and Oregon at year's end, has ended the discussion of whether he or Major Applewhite should start. Texas' biggest holes are at defensive tackle, where veterans Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers must be replaced, and at offensive left tackle, where Leonard Davis is gone. But the Longhorns will have a lot to prove against archrival Oklahoma, which humiliated Texas 63-14 last fall. After the season, Texas coach Mack Brown told me the size of the margin was his fault, that he abandoned his game plan too quickly in an attempt to come back and that the switch only made things worse. His point is that the loss is forgotten, that the scar isn't as deep as a seven-touchdown deficit would indicate. It's one thing to say that, quite another to get the Longhorns back out on the field and see how they react if things don't go their way early. Also, Texas' year-end game with Texas A&M moves to College Station, where the 'Horns have won only one of their last eight games. Anyone else? Don't be too quick to jump on the bandwagon at Oregon State and LSU. It's hard to imagine the Beavers having a better season than the one they just completed. The Tigers' come-from-behind win over Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl obscured their 7-4 regular-season mark. Plus, the two best teams in the Southeastern Conference, Tennessee and Florida, are both on LSU's schedule. In sum, Florida State, Texas, Oregon State and LSU: Four storms that won't be as fierce as predicted. That's it for the weather. Now let's go to sports. Sports Illustrated senior writer Ivan Maisel covers college football for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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