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First-round prognostications Posted: Friday April 19, 2002 12:34 PM
Sports Illustrated senior writer Jack McCallum will answer your NBA questions every week during the season. Click here to send him a question While the only question on everyone's mind seems to be whether or not the Lakers will three-peat, the postseason that begins Saturday features, in the Eastern Conference, the most wide-open race in history. I say that without equivocation because I cannot remember a year in which all eight playoff teams had a legitimate chance to make the Finals. That's not the case in the West, where there is a slight gap between -- in my mind -- the best team (the Lakers) and the second-best team (the Kings). Then there's another gap between Sacramento and the next two best teams, the Spurs and Mavs. After that, the seedings seem to hold true -- there's a gap between the Texas clubs and the No. 5 and 6 seeds (Timberwolves and Blazers), a small gap between those teams and the No. 7 Sonics, and a wide chasm between Seattle and the final qualifier, the Jazz. Well, all that is just idle chatter. It's time to put my butt on the line with these first-round predictions. EASTERN CONFERENCENo. 1 New Jersey vs. No. 8 Indiana: The Pacers appeared to be self-destructing when Isiah Thomas somehow righted the ship with the help of Reggie Miller's veteran leadership. There are two precedents for an eight seed beating a one seed (the Knicks beat Miami in 1999 and Denver beat Seattle in 1994), but I don't think it's going to happen here. The Nets simply have the better primetime player in Jason Kidd. NETS IN 5. No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 7 Toronto: Oh, man, what the Raptors had to do just to get to these playoffs. Their horses have to be tired, while the Pistons are rested and rarin' to go. Ball-gobbling Ben Wallace will be the big difference in this series. PISTONS IN 4. No. 3 Boston vs. No. 6 Philadelphia: I'm real tempted to go with the 76ers, who last year represented the East in the NBA Finals. They're playoff-tested and they have a presumably healthy Allen Iverson. But Boston's big two of Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker is enough to overcome A.I., and, besides, the midseason deal for Rodney Rogers and Tony Delk made the Celts stronger. BOSTON IN 4. No. 4 Charlotte vs. No. 5 Orlando: Since the current playoffs system was implemented in 1984, fifth seeds have beaten fourth seeds in the first round more often than the reverse. (The historical count is 22 series won by the No. 5 and 14 won by the No. 4.) That's not a compelling reason to pick the Magic in this relatively even matchup. But having Tracy McGrady is. ORLANDO IN 5. WESTERN CONFERENCENo. 1 Sacramento vs. No. 8 Utah: One thing is for certain: Questions about whether or not this is the last collective hurrah for John Stockton and Karl Malone will dominate this series. Here's another sure bet: The taciturn Stockton will not tip his hand. Alas, the Jazz have no chance against the track meet that will be run by the Kings. SACRAMENTO IN 3. No. 2 San Antonio vs. No. 7 Seattle: Man, these Sonics are squirrelly. But think back to the beginning of the season: They were not supposed to be anywhere near the playoffs. They are an outstanding jump-shooting team, they have great young athletic talent and they have good ol' Gary Payton running the show -- and he's as cocky and talented as the good young Gary Payton. Hate to see Tim Duncan (my MVP choice) bow out this early, but I smell upset. SEATTLE IN 4. No. 3 Lakers vs. No. 6 Portland: This series has to be good for at least one donnybrook. (Shaq, you had best watch it: The Blazers will be out to goad you.) But no matter how well Portland played the defending champs during the regular season, the playoffs are a different ballgame. LAKERS IN 4. No. 4 Dallas vs. No. 5 Minnesota: This will be a popular upset pick; the Mavs being perceived as a team that doesn't play enough defense to advance in the postseason. (Privately, the Wolves were overjoyed that they got this matchup.) But Dallas is a dangerous team -- and one with enough good shooters to wreck Minnesota's patented zone. DALLAS IN 5. And now on to an abbreviated version of the 'bag: Which lesser-known, non-superstar-type players will have an impact in the
first round of the
playoffs?
Judging by your location, Cliff, I assume you'd want me to say Ben Wallace. I think Wallace and Cliff Robinson (year in and year out one of the most underrated players in thee league) will definitely have an impact. I'd also pick Kenyon Martin of the Nets, Rodney Rogers of the Celtics, and maybe Monty Williams of Orlando. In the West, look for Doug Christie of the Kings (great defender), Brent Barry of the Sonics, and, as usual, Robert Horry of the Lakers, always a major factor in the playoffs. And Nick Van Exel of the Mavs seems to be on the floor in a lot of key situations. Paul Pierce of the Celtics led the league in total points, was third in
points per game, won a few contests with buzzer-beaters and consistently rose to
the occasion in big games, and yet he's only on your All-NBA third team?
I do not think you are being fair to this emerging superstar.
Well, Josh, who should I leave off? Duncan or McGrady? Webber or Garnett? I love Pierce. I did a story on him in Sports Illustrated early in the season and was impressed with him as a person, too. Jack, as we all know, before Allen Iverson got hurt, Larry Brown was playing
the Sixers around Iverson, which was a good thing because no one else was
really scoring. But since the injury, Philadelphia has proven it can win
without A.I. So, my question is: Will Brown play Iverson around the Sixers or
will he go back to the old way of playing the Sixers around
Iverson?
Well, Nick, I don't know when you wrote this, but the Sixers absolutely limped to the finish line without A.I., and the team doesn't look strong going into the postseason. Believe this: Iverson will jack up his usual number of shots, which is to say ... the old way. Sports Illustrated senior writer Jack McCallum will answer your NBA questions every week during the season. Click here to send him a question. |
