Getting a feel for Ming

It could be years before Rockets' rookie succeeds in pros

I see his well-proportioned 89 inches and the well-developed lower body. I see his quickness. I see him dribble from end-to-end and release a sweet-looking jumper. I see the intelligence in his eyes and his apparent willingness to succeed. I see the tall and talented non-American players who are doing well in the NBA, such as Dirk Nowitzki, Peja Stojakovic and Hedo Turkoglu.

But in the final analysis I don't see Yao Ming being good enough to justify being the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.

It's based more on a feeling than anything else, but trust me on this: The people actually drafting players are going primarily on feeling. They feel that this guy will get better. They feel that this guy will eventually be able to play two positions. They feel that this guy will have a great work ethic. Because, ultimately, every single player drafted will have to make not a small jump but a quantum leap to succeed in the pros.

Shaquille O'Neal is 100 times better now than he was when he was the first pick of the 1992 draft. Tim Duncan is 100 times better now than he was when he was the first pick of the '97 draft. Elton Brand is 30 times better now than when he was the first pick of the '99 draft. Kenyon Martin is, oh, 20 times better than he was when he was the first pick of a weak '00 draft.

Does Ming have this kind of upside? Personally, I don't think so. What is he? He doesn't seem to have the body or the inclination to become a close-to-the-basket power center in the tradition of O'Neal. OK, let's concede that right now there isn't anyone else on the planet to match up with Shaq. So how will Ming do farther out on the floor? Will he turn into a back-to-the-basket bank-shot artist like Duncan? I don't see it. A run-the-floor bruiser like Martin, who had a real coming-out party in the last two games of the NBA Finals? I don't see it. Will Ming become another Nowitzki, launching jumpers from 25 feet and taking it to the hoop? I don't see it. For that matter, will he become a three-point shooter in the tradition of Wang Zhi-Zhi, his countryman? I don't see it. Will he become an all-around, out-on-the-court player like the two Kings, Stojko and Turk? I don't see it.

Here are two other possibilities. Could he become a finger-wagging shot-blocker and occasional offensive threat like Dikembe Mutombo? Perhaps. How about a canny, sly, half-O, half-D center such as Vlade Divac? Perhaps. But the Rockets made Ming the FIRST PICK, which means they want more than Mutombo and Divac, and that is no slight on those two worthies.

Ming is a 7-foot-5, 296-pound center and that means he will be expected to win the majority of the rebounding wars inside, become a paint-clearing, glass-cleaning bully while also developing four or five ways to score. (For all his bullyboy ways, O'Neal has about five or six go-to moves in the block and he might add a couple more before he's through.)

And remember, Ming will also have to get the refs on his side and learn how to move his feet quick enough to stay out of foul trouble. Down the road Houston will want -- what? -- 25 points, 15 rebounds and three blocks from Ming. Is he going to give them that kind of production, all while learning a new language and adapting to a completely different way of life? Yo, good luck, Yao. From the Rockets' standpoint, there is the added possibility of compensation complications arising with the Chinese government, the China Basketball Association and the Shanghai Sharks. It's tough enough signing a top pick without adding significant cultural roadblocks.

No fewer than six foreign players who have never logged a minute on American soil were selected in the first round. Four of them -- Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Maybyner Hilario, Bostjan Nachbar, Jiri Welsch -- are out-on-the-floor forwards in the tradition of Stojko and Turk. The fifth, Nenad Krstic, is a jump-shooting power forward who might play some center, too. But Ming is a pure center, the only one who will have to mix it up underneath on a nightly basis with David Robinson (well, only for one season), Duncan, Mutombo, Divac, Rasheed Wallace, Elden Campbell, Ben Wallace, Antonio Davis, Michael Olowokandi (first pick in the '98 draft; he's about 20 times better now), not to mention O'Neal.

I sincerely hope Ming is not a bust, but there is a particular kind of pressure that comes with being both the first pick in the draft and having to play under the basket in the NBA. As I recall, Shaq was about six or seven years into his career before we were fully satisfied with him.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jack McCallum covers the NBA beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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