First-round forecast

Look East to find the best matchups

I know the question you all want answered: Are the Los Angeles Lakers going to four-peat? Well, first of all, I'm not sure. And second, I wouldn't tell you even if I was. My first predictions assignment was to blunder through only the opening-round playoff matchups. So, here goes:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

It took the East the better part of seven months to get interesting, but, suddenly, the best first-round matchups are east of the Mississippi. You could make a case for any of the eight playoff teams to reach the Finals (well, I can't make a strong case for the Pistons, Celtics or Magic) -- even if they won't stand much of a chance against the powerhouses in the West.

Detroit (No. 1 seed) vs. Orlando (No. 8): The Pistons' Rick Carlisle won't likely repeat as Coach of the Year, but, gazing at the Detroit lineup, one must conclude that he did a great job of squeezing 50 wins out of this team. Only twice in 19 years has a No. 8 beaten a No. 1 (Denver over Seattle in '94 and New York over Miami in '99), and those surprises were in five-game series, in which, presumably, an underdog has more of a chance. But I think we're ready for a seven-game upset. Tracy McGrady will be the difference. MAGIC IN 7.

New Jersey (No. 2) vs. Milwaukee (No. 7): Suddenly, the Bucks are everyone's favorite "surprise team," based mostly on their strong finish. Big deal. The final three weeks of Milwaukee's schedule was so soft it looked as if it could've been cooked up by a downtown German pastry chef. Gary Payton or not, the Bucks don't have enough to get by Jason (Kidd) and his ArgoNets. NETS IN 6.

Indiana (No. 3) vs. Boston (No. 6): Several Celtics have talked off the record about wanting this first-round matchup against one of the most schizophrenic teams in the league. But Isiah Thomas knows about playoff coaching, Indy has too many weapons, and Ron Artest, when called upon, can put a sustained stop on either Paul Pierce or Antoine Walker. PACERS IN 7.

Philadelphia (No. 4) vs. New Orleans (No. 5): This is the best first-round matchup in either conference, in my opinion. Jamal Mashburn has been the most overlooked player in the league this season, and the injury-plagued Hornets are better than their 47-35 record. Still, I can't see Allen Iverson and a reborn Derrick Coleman letting Philly lose early. 76ERS IN 7.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

When you heard that Portland had lost to the Los Angeles Clippers on the final night of the regular season, thus sinking the Blazers to the No. 6 seed and boosting the Lakers to No. 5, what was your first thought? That the Dallas Mavericks are lucky? Or that the Minnesota Timberwolves are unlucky? Mine was the latter. The T'wolves worked extremely hard to get homecourt advantage in the first-round only to draw the defending three-peaters. Ah, cruel fate.

San Antonio (No. 1) vs. Phoenix (No. 8): There has been a lot of talk about the Suns presenting a stiff challenge for the Spurs, given Stephon Marbury's speed on the perimeter and Phoenix's success against San Antonio during the regular season. Forget it. Won't happen now. SPURS IN 5.

Sacramento (No. 2) vs. Utah (No. 7): This is a disastrous deja vu for the Jazz. They will find a way to win a game, as they did last season in their first-round best-of-five series against the Kings, but Utah simply doesn't have the all-around weapons to challenge the NBA's deepest team. KINGS IN 5.

Dallas (No. 3) vs. Portland (No. 6): I've been hearing it all season. I've been saying it all season. The Trail Blazers could be a dangerous playoff team. Yeah, well, I watched them roll over and flop on their bellies like a bunch of tuna in that final game against the Clippers. I'm going with the team that's done it all year, as flawed defensively as it might be. MAVS IN 6.

Minnesota (No. 4) vs. Lakers (No. 5): I've tried to work out a scenario in which the T'wolves beat L.A. -- and I just can't find one. No matter how sensational Kevin Garnett is, no matter how much help he gets from Wally Szczerbiak, no matter how many funky zones coach Flip Saunders draws up, Minnesota doesn't have enough to get by Shaq and Kobe. LAKERS IN 6.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jack McCallum covers the NBA for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

 

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