Up for grabs

So far in the playoffs, no team has emerged as a favorite

For most of this confounding first round, I have thought back to the immortal words of Moses Malone: "Fo', fo', fo'," said Mo prior to the 1983 playoffs, predicting how his Philadelphia 76ers would ramrod through the postseason. I bring this up not to hearken back to those olden days when a team had to win only 12 games to capture the championship -- the number now is 16 -- but to observe how no current club would dare make that proclamation. (Moses was off by only one game, by the way -- the Sixers, who got a first-round bye, lost one to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern finals.)

By this point in the playoffs, a clear favorite for the title has almost always emerged; some years, in fact, the team to beat has often been apparent since January, maybe even since November. Not this season. Even if you're firmly convinced that the Lakers' 30-point win over the Timberwolves on Tuesday night puts them back on course to fourpeat; even if you're absolutely sure that this is at last Sacramento's year (assuming it finishes off Utah on Wednesday); and even if you're positively certain that San Antonio has finally put away the pesky Suns and possesses the strongest roster, the fact remains that no team has played these early games without some serious dents to the body, or at minimum suffered a damaged fender.

This opening round has certainly gone against a statistical trend. In the 19 seasons since the first-round bye was eliminated for conference winners, 14 eventual champions have swept their first-round series, which, as you know, were best three out of five until this season. Three eventual champs lost one of four games, and only two teams, the 2000 Lakers and the '95 Rockets, were forced to win a fifth game in the opening round.

Two of the most surprising (and don't confuse "surprising" with "dominant") teams have been Boston and Orlando -- and even the Celtics failed to close out the Pacers on Tuesday. Resist the temptation, though, to believe that the balance of power has shifted to the Magic Kingdom or Beantown. The East is still least. The Magic's domination of top-seeded Detroit, while not utterly predictable, has hardly been surprising, given the Pistons' problematic offense. And in third-seeded Indiana, the Celtics met a team that had been crumbling, slowly but surely, for the last two months. (For the record, I predicted Orlando over Detroit but had Indy getting by Boston.)

But the phenomenon of good teams in relative disarray is a fascinating one, and I'm not sure there's one reason for it. In most seasons the coaches of the best teams have shrunk their rotations and have pretty much identified the right personnel for certain situations. But in this first round there's been a lot of tinkering. Lakers coach Phil Jackson has searched endlessly for the right combination and hasn't found it yet. Robert Horry has let him down. Mark Madsen appeared to be buried but then helped L.A. win an inspired Game 4 last Sunday. What will Devean George give Jackson from game to game? Who knows?

Jackson's rookie guards, Jannero Pargo and Kareem Rush, were heavy contributors down the stretch of the regular season -- now they're planted somewhere over by Dyan Cannon. In some small way, the injury to Rick Fox helps Jackson in that it gives the coach one less option.

Minnesota is in a similar situation. Suddenly, coach Flip Saunders has counted on reserve frontcourtman Marc Jackson in a big way, even though Jackson has been a non-contributor most of the year. The Spurs have had the most solid rotation all season, but the doubts raised in their ongoing struggle with Phoenix has -- bet on this -- rekindled the franchise's thoughts of adding a free agent such as Jason Kidd or Jermaine O'Neal, if, indeed, such thoughts had ever died. One of the most interesting developments is with the deep and talented Sacramento Kings, as Hedo Turkoglu has all but disappeared from the rotation.

One of the few teams with a fairly set rotation is Philadelphia. The 76ers are what they are and know what they are. From time to time they get major contributions from players such as Derrick Coleman, Eric Snow and Aaron McKie, but Philly is built around Allen Iverson (even more than the Nets are built around Kidd) and that's what the team is banking on. I like the Sixers or the Nets (my favorite all season long) to take the East.

Getting back to why clubs are finding it hard to breeze through the opening round: Saunders conceded that this year teams seem more unsettled than they usually are at playoff time, but adds that it's not unexpected. "With the Lakers struggling and the East up for grabs, the regular season didn't have a clear-cut pattern to it," said the Minnesota coach. "When we got to the playoffs, for example, we weren't sure what we were going to do. Well, we decided we had to pressure L.A.'s fullcourt a lot and that causes fatigue which forces more personnel changes than you might make ordinarily."

Brian Shaw echoed the uncertain theme. "It's been like this for us all year," said the Lakers' veteran guard, who, predictably, has been pulled from mothballs to get key backup minutes as quarterback of L.A.'s triangle offense. "It's not like we expected to come into the playoffs and have it be any different."

The most compelling reason that even good teams are searching for answers at this late date is that there are no great teams, no dominant fo'-fo'-fo' Sixers or Michael Jordan-led Bulls. Players on great teams know what to expect in the clutch, feel comfortable with each other when circumstances start going against them, and know how to win on the road. The Spurs and Mavs may become great teams but they're not there yet. The Lakers are still close to great because of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, but they are simply not as strong as they have been the last three seasons.

That leaves the Kings, an experienced, veteran team, one without a Kobe or a Shaq, but one with a clear identity, one that's been through turmoil and disappointment, one with players who know how to rely on each other. There's still a long way to go, but I'm sticking with Sacramento as my pick to win it all.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jack McCallum covers the NBA for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

 

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