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Stats in spring don't mean a thing Posted: Wednesday March 19, 2003 2:53 PM
To what extent is a player's spring training performance indicative of how he'll do once the regular season begins? Should we always look at Grapefruit and Cactus League box scores with a boulder-sized grain of salt?
Right now the hottest player in spring training is Yankees right fielder Raul Mondesi, who is 12 for his last 24. Is Mondesi a viable front-line major league outfielder? Hardly. He's a piece of the puzzle, but nothing more. The same goes for Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield, a knuckleballing fool who has tossed eight straight innings of scoreless spring training baseball. Where does Wakefield rank on my fantasy board? Right behind Rick Helling and Micah Bowie. Unless we're talking about a close fight for a job (for example, Chris Widger and John Flaherty battling to be Jorge Posada's backup catcher in the Bronx), an on-the-verge rookie trying to impress (Alex Escobar in Cleveland) or a Rule 5 pick desperate to prove he belongs (reliever Buddy Hernandez, who was returned by the A's to Atlanta on Tuesday), the numbers and performances mean squat. Isn't it a little disingenuous for A's owner Steve Schott to come out right before the season and say his club won't re-sign Miguel Tejada? What is he doing with all his revenue-sharing money? And why kick dirt on the season before it even gets under way? Does this mean Oakland will trade Tejada in midseason?
Wayne, if I'm an A's fan, I'm ticked off. This is a franchise that appears to want out of Oakland, and what better way to make that happen than to issue a "poor us" message to the league? Simply put, the A's do not believe there is competitive balance to be found in their city. Certainly, Tejada is attractive to several teams, especially since he's willing to negotiate a new deal during the season. There aren't a ton of clubs that need a shortstop and can afford him, but if you're the Los Angeles Dodgers ... well, you get the idea. Do you see Art Howe having an effect on the 2003 Mets that is similar to the one Joe Torre had on the 1996 Yankees (the parallel obviously being two laid-back skippers replacing control-orientated managers)?
Joe Torre has done a fine job in the Bronx. No question. But I continue to find it ridiculous when fans/media/players/owners praise him as the best skipper in the league. It's easy to forget that with the Mets, Atlanta and St. Louis, Torre was a run-of-the-mill, sub-.500 manager with little juice. Now -- thanks in part to a nice demeanor, but mainly to incredibly talented players -- he's God, John Oates and Casey Stengel rolled into one. Howe will not repeat Torre's success, simply because this year's Mets aren't nearly as good as the '96 Yankees were. The Mets are a solid club, but there's no way they outdo reloaded Atlanta. Do you think Cubs pitcher Juan Cruz will ever make it as a starter, or do you think the team would be better off trading him for some talent? And 95 wins for the Cubs sounds about right.
Bob, the Cubs will win 95 games when Vanilla Ice's Ice Ice Baby II tops the charts. Cruz is an interesting case. Skinny (6-foot-2, 162 pounds), young (24), erratic (3-11 last season) ... and incredibly enticing. He began 2002 as a starter, then moved to the pen after suffering from a sore arm in May. As a reliever, he used an electric assortment of stuff (93-mph fastball, rough sinker, changeup) to pitch well. The Cubs have a great starting rotation, save for the iffy Shawn Estes at No. 5. If the left-hander struggles like he did last season, Cruz could easily earn another shot. Jeff, as a longtime Braves fan I have become accustomed to winning our division. With Tom Glavine gone and that ridiculous trade of Kevin Millwood to the Phillies for Johnny Estrada -- are you kidding me? -- will my team be back in the hunt this year?
Truth is, the Millwood-Estrada deal was a salary dump, plain and simple. But the Braves made up for it by adding three quality starters and, in Robert Fick, an answer to the longstanding first-base void. The Braves are still the class of the NL East. Couple questions: First, it seems as though many writers are saying the Florida Marlins are better off relying on Jeff Torborg's "small ball" as well as tough pitching from A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett and Brad Penny. Is this the right formula for the Marlins? Second, do you see the new additions -- Ivan Rodriguez, Mark Redman, Juan Pierre and Todd Hollandsworth -- contributing significantly enough to help improve the team? Thanks for your time.
Javier, at the time I received your question, I was watching a rerun of MTV's Real World-Road Rules Challenge. Feel no need to thank me for my time. The Marlins are making a mistake. Big. Huge. This can't work. It won't work. No way. No how. Yeah, the team added silver to its uniform (think: speed, quicksilver, flash, pow!). But let's go back to 1992, when the Cleveland Indians built their team around the nimble Alex Cole. One season earlier, Cole was an Ohio sensation, hitting .295 with 27 steals for the Wahoos. So the Indians decided they'd run-run-run opposing catchers to death, generating more runs than the scoreboard could hold. What happens? Cole slap-hits his way to a .206 average and nine steals, and he's banished to Pittsburgh. The Indians lose 86 games. Nowadays, it's even tougher to use speed. Most pitchers are well versed in the slide step, a technique that has made the Rickey Henderson-Tim Raines-Omar Moreno type of game obsolete. Leads are shorter, jumps are later, pitchers are smarter. Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre are both good top-of-the-order slap-type hitters, but they're damned by a soggy middle of the lineup. Save for Pudge and Mike Lowell, the heart of the Marlins order is weak, and few pitchers will fear throwing fastball after fastball to the likes of Derek Lee and Todd Hollandsworth. That means less time for Castillo and Pierre to run and gun. That means trouble. What's the word on J.D. Drew this spring? Is he finally going to a) be healthy for more than, say, 60 percent of the season and b) put up the "MVP numbers" that experts have been predicting for what seems like an eternity? I think with one more great bat the Cards are headed for the World Series. Is Drew that guy?
A. Drew had postseason knee surgery and should be out until around May. B. There are those in baseball who still believe Drew is due for a breakout, supersonic season. I do not. It's sad. Drew's a great, great guy -- a true Christian who practices what he preaches and wears a WWJD bracelet to honestly remind himself to be righteous. But sometimes you watch him play and wonder, 'Where's the passion? Where's the drive?' It's not just me. Even some Cardinals have quietly grumbled that Drew needs more fire. The talent is incredible. But it seems like Drew is relatively content being a good, solid major league player. What will happen first: the Red Sox abandon their bullpen-by-committee, Derek Lowe and Casey Fossum are recognized as superstars, Pedro's shoulder crumbles, Nomar and Manny are on the trading block or Emmanuel Lewis stars in a Webster reunion?
Laura, I'm a dreamer. Why, in a country where Erik Estrada finds work and bubblegum sells for $1.25 per pack, can't the following occur ... In the first inning of his fourth start of the season, Pedro is facing Detroit's Carlos Pena when -- pop! -- his shoulder turns into mashed potato. Boston skipper Grady Little turns to Fossum in the dugout and says, "Case, my boy, we need you now more than ever." Fossum throws 8 2/3 innings of no-hit ball, but Boston nearly blows the game in the bottom of the 10th when Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez fail to make routine plays because they are distracted by a large billboard reading: EMMANUEL LEWIS AND MIA HAMM STAR IN WEBSTER II. However, Mike Timlin comes in and shuts the door on Detroit for two innings. "Timlin's my closer," a joyous Little says afterward, "But whatever you do, don't forget about Derek Lowe. Even though he didn't pitch today and he's only been OK, he's a superstar. He and Emmanuel Lewis. Please recognize that." Sports Illustrated senior writer Jeff Pearlman is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send Jeff a question.
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