Talking and hoping

Optimism on labor front tempered by game's checkered past

At this point, with everyone finally talking and being semi-civil, it's pretty easy to get sucked in. Right now, there is a growing hope around baseball. And hope is a tricky thing.

Monday, the two sides in baseball's constantly irritating labor dispute talked for five hours or so. In baseball, that's considered a marathon bargaining session. In baseball, it qualifies for overtime.

The representatives for the players and owners sat down and talked and exchanged a bunch of numbers, and they agreed on some things and got closer on others. The owners' top lawyer even said one of the more contentious issues was "resolvable." Optimism leaked out of the room.

Tuesday, the executive board of the players' union will get on the phone and, most likely, not set a strike date as many had anticipated.

Could owners and players really be getting somewhere?

Are they sucking us in?

"I think the press has been sucked in by the rhetoric of brinkmanship," says Dr. Andrew Zimbalist, a Smith College professor of economics and a well-known baseball economist. "I've been optimistic all along."

This is THE week for Major League Baseball, it is said, the week that may well save or ruin the battered old game. The talks to settle a new contract, talks that started in earnest just last month, are intensifying. The 11th hour approaches.

One of the biggest issues, revenue sharing, is on the table. The sides are only $70 million apart on it.

It's a good sign, the optimists cry.

"Tip of the iceberg," management lawyer Rob Manfred said of the gap last week. On Monday, though, he opined, "I really do believe this topic is resolvable."

The problem now is that there are many other issues that need to be talked about, many other flaws that need to be fixed. And time is short. Time is practically up.

The players say they can't let the talks drag on until after the season because then the owners can institute any rules they want. The owners say they can't live with the economics of the game as is, and they almost certainly can't live with a players' strike.

"What [the players] say and what the owners say, you have to discount," Zimbalist says. "Both sides are trying to stake out some leverage and bargaining position."

The fact is, no one wants a strike. Owners would lose a ton of money. Players would lose at least a few Benzes each. The game would suffer a huge setback.

But let's not be too naive, either. Time waits for no millionaire. And the two sides have barely broached the issue of a luxury tax, basically a fine for teams that spend too much on players. Players don't want the tax, and the owners say they can't do without one.

All the good vibes this week could turn bad pretty quickly.

"It's not in the cards," Manfred said, "to do an agreement that does not contain some sort of competitive balance [i.e., luxury] tax."

So where does it all go? How does it get there?

The hammer that hangs over the whole process is the strike. The players talked about a possible Aug. 12 walkout, though that's impossible now. Sept. 1 and Sept. 16 also reportedly have been discussed. The timing of paychecks, the concerns for the postseason, the shaky economy, the first anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks -- all have been taken into consideration.

Maybe it won't come to that. Maybe the talks this week are really a sign of progress. Maybe the threat of a strike really isn't needed to push these two old combatants to some sort of a truce.

But this has always been a strange marriage between the players and owners, a union built on money and distrust over money and a lot of threats. It came down to a strike last time, remember?

Next Monday, the union's executive board is tentatively scheduled to meet in Chicago. The players could consider a date to strike again. Meanwhile, the talks continue. It is an important week for baseball.

Hope at your own risk.

John Donovan is a senior writer for CNNSI.com. Comments? To e-mail Donovan, click here.

 

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