Now that April's in the books, it's time to get real
Posted: Thursday May 01, 2003 1:18 PM
Updated: Thursday May 01, 2003 3:18 PM
Here's a fact: Since baseball split into three divisions after the strike of '94, more than 40 percent of the teams that were in first place on May 1 did NOT end up winning the pennant. (That doesn't count the shortened '95 season.)
What that tells you is that, sometimes, separating baseball fact from fiction is difficult. Especially in April. So here we are, to do the job for you, to show you what's real and what isn't, to differentiate between the fake and the fantastic.
Remember: Don't believe what you see in April ...
The True
Raul Mondesi
AP
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The New York Yankees may be the best team to come along since ... what, the '01 Mariners? The '98 Yanks? Their pitching is faultless (their starters started 16-0). Their hitting is hole-less (their .295 average leads all of baseball). My goodness, even Raul Mondesi (.347, eight home runs) is looking like an All-Star. The Bronxites, owners of the best record in the game, are playing at around an .800 clip. Is there no one who can stop them? The answer, of course, is no. Or at least, not likely. If injuries to star shortstop Derek Jeter and closer Mariano Rivera didn't slow these guys down, don't think that the Red Sox can do the deed.
Alan Trammell
AP
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The Tigers, Brewers and Indians, on the other end, are as gawdawful as everyone thought they'd be. The Indians get a tad of a break because they're admittedly rebuilding and they've been OK in the last, oh, decade or so (World Series appearances, how quickly we forget, in '95 and '97). There's talent in Cleveland, too, although it's young. As for Milwaukee and Detroit ... the talent there, what little there is, will be struggling all season to stay on the good side of the '62 Mets.
Alfonso Soriano
AP
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Alfonso Soriano is the best player in baseball right now, and he could be for a long time to come. The near-MVP last season, the Yankees' second baseman is hitting .371 with nine homers and 25 RBIs. He's in the American League's Top 10 in average, homers, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs scored ... we could go on. The most amazing part about Soriano, other than the fact that he's that good and only 25 years old? He keeps up that average and the high on-base percentage (.436) despite the fact that he wouldn't walk across the room to help an old lady off the floor. That's how much he hates to walk.
Mark Prior
AP
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Mark Prior came up last year as the Cubs' next great pitching savior and did well enough (6-6, 3.32 ERA). Now, as just another part of the Cubs' deep and dangerous rotation, Prior is living up to the hype. Opponents are batting just .183 against the young righty, lefties a mere .133. He hasn't given up a homer this season, and has 38 strikeouts with just seven walks. Prior (4-1, 1.70 ERA) goes Thursday night against another good young pitcher, San Francisco lefty Damian Moss.
Mike Mussina
AP
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Everyone knew Mike Mussina was good. Heck, that's why George Steinbrenner signed the guy in the first place. He won 18 games last season, but some started to wonder about him when his ERA ballooned to an un-Mussina-like 4.05 (his 3.52 lifetime ERA ranks ninth among active pitchers). This season, he's back to form, unbeaten at 5-0 with a 1.70 ERA. The Yankees' right-hander has struck out 42 and given up only eight walks in 37 innings and quickly is proving to be the ace of an obscenely deep and good starting staff.
The False
Joe Randa and Desi Relaford
AP
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OK, it's a nice story and all, but c'mon. The Kansas City Royals are 16-3 against AL Central division foes -- 5-0 against the Tigers, 5-1 against the Indians, 2-0 vs. the Twins and 4-2 vs. the White Sox. That just won't continue. Not at that clip. The Royals also are unbeaten at home (10-0), and they've beaten every lefty they've seen (8-0). That's gonna stop, too. Here's the deal: Hernandez, Affeldt, Asencio and George are simply too unproven for anyone to think that they can carry a team to the postseason. Still, the Royals are off to such a good start that they'll make things interesting for most of the summer. Heck, if they go .500 the rest of the way, they'll be close to 90 wins. But, in May alone, they have 14 games against the AL East (the Royals are 1-3 against the East), a six-game road trip through Seattle and Oakland, five more at home against the Mariners and A's and four games in Minnesota. Yikes! And in June they have trips to L.A., Colorado and St. Louis and home series against Arizona, San Francisco, the Twins and the Cardinals. Is that a thump I hear? They'll be lucky to be .500 at the All-Star break.
Esteban Loaiza
AP
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Every season, a pitcher bolts out of spring training looking like the next coming of [insert Hall of Fame pitcher of choice here]. The White Sox this season offer up one Esteban Loaiza, who won all of five games in the past three Aprils but was 5-0 with a 1.25 ERA this April. Last season, opponents hit .309 off him, the third-highest mark in the AL (.309). This year, rivals are hitting .151. What gives? A new team (he pitched with Toronto in '02) helps, and maybe he has shed his reputation as a slacker. The fact is, few are that good for too long, and Loaiza's history (8-15 in May and June, with a 7.23 ERA in the past three years) shows us he's headed for a fall.
Miguel Tejada
AP
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Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi and Torii Hunter will snap out of it. You're talking about half of the top six in last year's AL MVP voting, for crying out loud. Oakland's Tejada won the MVP last season, with a .308 average, 34 home runs and 131 RBIs. He is absolutely stinking now (.157), looking completely lost at the plate. Among his other woes, he's on pace for a career high in strikeouts. The Yankees' Giambi, the 2000 AL MVP, hit .314 with 41 homers and 122 RBIs last season. Though the Yanks are tearing everyone up so far, it's not because of Giambi (.196). And Minnesota's Hunter, an All-Star last season when he finished sixth in the MVP voting (.289, 29 homers, 94 RBIs), is not even close to his team's MVP this season (.213). How do we know they'll all snap out of it? We just know. Trust us.
Edgardo Alfonzo
AP
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Edgardo Alfonzo was going to be a key acquisition for the San Francisco Giants, a solid batsman who would provide a lot of protection for Barry Bonds in the lineup. But the Giants, who lead the National League West, are doing their thing without Alfonzo, a career .289 hitter who is sputtering along at .170 (before Wednesday night's game). The third baseman, hitting mostly out of the Nos. 2 and 5 holes, has hit .300 or better in four of the past six years. He'll be better. But he has a ways to go.
Rey Ordonez
AP
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A career .247 hitter, Rey Ordonez blistered April at .323. His move from the Mets to the Devil Rays, and a whole new crop of pitchers in the AL, has evidently helped. Manager Lou Piniella is hitting him ninth, and the thought is that he's seeing some pitches that he wouldn't normally see hitting that low in the lineup. But the guy has hit .247 in April over the past three years, .183 in May. Once some of these AL pitchers get a better book on Ordonez, you can probably expect him to revert to his NL form -- which is why he's not in the NL any longer.
Shawn Chacon
AP
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Nobody pitches in Coors Field the way Shawn Chacon has pitched there this season. The Rockies' righty is 3-0 in Denver with a 1.30 ERA. Maybe he's found some secret. Maybe he's turned up the thermostat on the humidor. But considering that over the past three years he's 7-9 with a 5.77 ERA in the Denver park, we're thinking something else is up. And, soon, his ERA will be, too.
Brad Radke
AP
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The Minnesota Twins have to play with more heart, according to reliever Eddie Guardado. Truth is, the heart of their team is their problem. We've addressed Hunter's problems. First baseman Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting .230. Youngster Mike Cuddyer, who the team hoped would handle the right field job, has been absolutely overmatched (.197). On the pitching side, Brad Radke's ERA is off the charts (not really ... it's 6.29) and the Twins have given up 36 homers in 25 games. Still, the Twins have decent enough pitching (opponents are hitting .229 against them, second only to Oakland in the AL) to get them back in this thing, once the Royals fall back to the pack.
Raul Mondesi
Alan Trammell
Alfonso Soriano
Mark Prior
Mike Mussina
Joe Randa and Desi Relaford
Esteban Loaiza
Miguel Tejada
Edgardo Alfonzo
Rey Ordonez
Shawn Chacon
Brad Radke
