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A closer call Having a stopper isn't absolutely critical ... but it helpsPosted: Thursday May 08, 2003 11:49 AM
The best bullpens in the National and American leagues, at this moment of this still awfully young season, have an established, lights-out closer. Believe in this bullpen by committee thing or not -- and, really, it's not the worst concept that's been floated around baseball -- but know this: An ace in the bullpen is an enviable, valuable commodity. Sure, the San Francisco Giants are doing OK without Robb Nen. The Boston Red Sox are winning despite their shaky pen. And, with Mariano Rivera out, the New York Yankees did just fine. But, really, where would the Atlanta Braves be without John Smoltz? The Los Angeles Dodgers without Eric Gagne? Where would the Minnesota Twins be without "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, or the surprising Kansas City Royals without surprising Mike MacDougal? They'd be with most of the rest of the teams in baseball -- looking around for a closer. "I'll say this," Anaheim closer Troy Percival told the Orange County Register earlier this season. "Any team that wins using a closer by committee better have a fantastic offense." Here's a quick look at the best, most effective bullpens in baseball at this early point of the season:
• Los Angeles (Eric Gagne): The Dodgers, not a great offensive team, are hanging close to the Giants in the NL West on the strength of their bullpen, which has the best ERA in baseball (1.37 through Tuesday). Gagne (0.55 ERA, 10 saves, .127 average against) is the man at the end who makes it all work. • Minnesota (Eddie Guardado): The best pen in the AL (2.72 ERA) is keeping the Twins within hailing distance of the Royals in the Central because of guys like setup man Johan Santana (1.59 ERA, .183 average against in 22 2/3 innings). But the threat of Guardado helps. He's allowed one run in 12 2/3 innings (0.71 ERA) and has notched seven saves.
• Montreal: The Expos are playing quietly great ball. Their starters have the best ERA in the NL (3.21), and their relievers are fourth among bullpens with a 3.11 ERA. But who the heck are these guys? Rocky Biddle has all seven saves for the Expos (and a 3.86 ERA). Joey Eischen and Scott Stewart both have sub-1.20 ERAs and opponents aren't hitting better than .192 off either one of them. • Seattle: Kaz Sasaki has two-thirds of the Mariners' six saves -- and he hasn't pitched since April 21. Still, the Mariners lead the AL West and rank third among AL bullpens with a 3.19 ERA. The thanks have to go to -- among others -- Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who has given up one run in 19 2/3 innings (0.46 ERA) and veteran lefty Jeff Nelson, who has Seattle's other two saves. Baseball is not bereft of good closers. Billy Wagner has a 2.37 ERA for Houston and still has a fastball that reaches in the upper 90s. Jose Mesa has nine saves for Philadelphia. Ugueth Urbina, whom the Red Sox let go free, necessitating their no-bullpen-ace approach, has 10 saves for the Texas Rangers. Armando Benitez can still bring it, and he's saved 10 games for the New York Mets. He's also blown four others. But there are more teams without good, solid, established closers than there are with them. Which puts teams, like the Red Sox, in the position of figuring out how best to use the talent they have. The idea behind the so-called bullpen by committee is not a bad one. If you don't have a closer, the thinking goes, you take your best pitcher out there and use him when you think he'd be most effective -- whether that's the seventh inning or the ninth. The challenge for teams without a true closer is finding out who's the best reliever, and when to use him. Baseball Prospectus rates relievers on a rather complicated formula that takes into consideration the runners they inherit, how many runners score, how many are expected to score and what kind of mess they leave for the next guy. They adjust the numbers by park and league factors, too. The site rates Hasegawa tops among relievers, while Santana, Nathan, Gagne and Smoltz all make the Top 10. Interestingly enough, the site ranks complete bullpens the same way. And their top 5 teams -- the Dodgers, Astros, Angels, Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks -- all have legitimate, identifiable closers. (That would be Gagne, Wagner, Percival, Guardado and Matt Mantei.) All this is not to say that a team has to have a traditional closer to be truly effective -- though there are many in baseball that would say that's true. Again, the Giants have done OK with Worrell. The Chicago Cubs, the NL Central leaders, are going strong with Joe Borowski. The Red Sox bullpen has a 5.47 ERA, but the Sox are hanging with the red-hot Yankees. What it says, as always, is that having an ace in the bullpen -- no matter how he's used -- is always better than not having one. John Donovan is a senior writer for SI.com. Comments? To e-mail Donovan, click here.
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John Smoltz
Tim Worrell
