Market forces

Teams scramble to get in position for annual July frenzy

Mike Lowell may be the most wanted man in baseball. He's certainly been the most talked about lately.

The Florida home run hitter -- he is this year, anyway -- has been getting more pub than The Hulk. Pick up a newspaper in just about any big baseball city and there's his name, with speculation about how he could help the home team.

It's that time of year again, when baseball's trade deadline looms and anyone with any chance of getting anywhere near the postseason is in the market. At this time of year, a bit more than a month away from the July 31 deadline, every team in baseball is either a buyer, a seller or a talker. Some, truth be told, are all three.

It's not easy trying to separate the real players in this annual game from the ones just wanting to play. There is one rule: Follow the money. It's all about which players have the big contracts.

Some teams may be willing to take on those big contracts in a trade, but those teams are the exceptions. Many times these days, teams will trade for a big-salaried player only if the team trading the player helps with paying the salary (sometimes for more than the rest of the season, too).

All the team that gets the player often has to do, then, is give up some prospects. Of course, often the name player in the deal is only a rent-a-player, which means the buying team can be without the big money player and the prospects they traded in a matter of months.

It gets complicated, but that's baseball in these economic times.

"The sense that I have so far," Arizona general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. said the other day, "is there are very, very few teams that are going to be in the position to make a trade of any consequence and be oblivious to the money part of the deal."

Sure, the Yankees can take on some salary, and maybe so can the Red Sox and another one or two of the better-off teams. But, mostly, everything in July is tied to money, and few teams want to spend more of it.

The goal for most teams in the running is to get short-term help without upping the payroll, even if it means giving up some long-term prospects to do that. The goals for teams out of the playoff race are to trim payroll and get cheap, young talent.

Here's a look at some of the players in this wacky market, some in the playoff race and some already hopelessly out of it:

Yankees -- They've already reportedly talked to the Pirates about trading head case starter Jeff Weaver to the Bucs for hitter Brian Giles or pitcher Kris Benson. But, every year, the Yankees seem to pop up in all trade talks for everybody, especially the high-priced players. This is for sure: The Yankees will not sit still. They never do. And if it costs them some money … well, that's never been one of George Steinbrenner's problems, has it?

Rangers -- Everybody knows Texas needs pitching, but it's a pitcher, ironically, who the Rangers could be trading first. Highly coveted closer Ugueth Urbina could bring the Rangers some pitching prospects that they need down the line. The Rangers also would love to dump free-agents-to-be Juan Gonzalez (see below), Carl Everett and Rafael Palmeiro for some pitching.

Mets -- Interim GM Jim Duquette would love to dump the whole roster and start over, but his most likely trade bait is closer Armando Benitez. Other pricey veterans, notably Roberto Alomar, will be more difficult to unload. But the Mets may be willing to cough up some of the $4 million left on Alomar's contract to get him out of town and start over with a younger roster. Reportedly interested are the Reds and Dodgers.

Red Sox -- Boston's bullpen is not good, with a 5.49 ERA and a .288 batting average against it. Urbina's been rumored to be going there, as has Benitez, but Boston GM Theo Epstein is a careful sort. He won't trade away a promising youngster just on an outside chance of catching the Yanks this year. The Red Sox need starting pitching, too, and there have been reports that Epstein is interested in White Sox starter Bartolo Colon.

Expos -- GM Omar Minaya traded for the Rangers' Juan Gonzalez earlier this week, but the deal has been all but squashed by Gonzalez and that dadburned no-trade clause of his. If Minaya can't get Juan Gone, you know he'll do something else. Last year, he landed Colon and Cliff Floyd in July. The Expos are still in it, in every sense of the phrase.

Marlins -- Florida isn't going anywhere, and everyone wants Lowell (.294, 24, 65), especially the Cubs and Dodgers. So Lowell will undoubtedly have a high price tag. L.A. has plenty of pitching strength, and the Dodgers badly need a bat like Lowell's. But L.A. GM Dan Evans likes all that pitching. It'll have to be a sweet deal for him to part with someone like Guillermo Mota.

Reds -- GM Jim Bowden fancies himself a trader, and he has an extra outfielder in Jose Guillen, who could be attractive to a few teams. The Reds need pitching. If it can be tried, Bowden will try it.

Royals -- There's a lot of talk around Kansas City about trading Carlos Beltran, and the Yankees reportedly have met with the Royals about a possible deal. The thinking is, and it's probably right, that the Royals won't be able to afford Beltran next year. The Yankees can. So for K.C., it's a case of getting something for him now or nothing when he probably leaves.

John Donovan is a senior writer for SI.com.

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