Breaking down the Aussie Open draw

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jon Wertheim peers into his crystal ball to reveal the fate of the top 16 men's and women's seeds for the Australian Open. Scroll down to see the first-round matches you shouldn't miss, some darkhorse candidates to advance to Week 2, and his championship predictions.

MEN'S REPORT | Women's Report

1. Lleyton Hewitt: He has won in New York and at Wimbledon. We're hard-pressed to come up with a reason he can't do it on home soil. Potential third-round match against Gustavo Kuerten ought to be a good one.

2. Andre Agassi: No one is quite sure of the state of Agassi's game. If he's on, he could win his third A.O. title in four years. If not, a worker bee like Guillermo Cañas could sting him.

3. Marat Safin: If the balky shoulder weren't enough of a concern, a deceptively icky draw -- a healthy-for-the-time-being Richard Krajicek looms in Round 3 -- spells an early demise. We just hopes he brings his "family" to the players' box again.

4. Juan Carlos Ferrero: Has yet to distinguish himself Down Under. This could be the year to change that, particularly since his draw is softer than goose down.

5. Carlos Moya: On the short list of legitimate threats to win the whole jug of sangria. Potential fourth-rounder against Paradorn Srichaphan should be a good one.

6. Roger Federer: All the talent in the world, but his confidence has been playing hide-and-seek for the better part of a year. A Grand Slam disappointment at three events and counting. Draw looks nice, but don't be surprised if Stefan Koubek upsets him in Round 3.

7. Jiri Novak: Won't win seven matches, but Cheery Jiri does awfully well for himself under the radar.

8. Albert Costa: Essentially M.I.A. since his Roland Garros triumph. If the courts are fast, his exit will be, too.

9. Andy Roddick: Year started inauspiciously with a loss to Hyung-Taik Lee, but Mandy's Man is always a threat. The faster the court plays, the farther he'll go.

10. David Nalbandian: Haven't heard much from Nalbandian the Andean since Wimbledon.

11. Paradorn Srichaphan: All aboard the Paradorn bandwagon. A genuine threat to win the whole shebang, but can he handle the skyrocketing expectations?

12. Sebastien Grosjean: A player to watch. Former semifinalist (and should-have-been finalist) had a disappointing 2002, but he's back to full health.

13. Fernando Gonzalez: Particularly if Safin goes out early, the flayin' Chilean could reach semis. Won't get a test until James Blake in Round 3.

14. Guillermo Cañas: Better hard-court player than he's given credit for being. Grinding style should be particularly effective in the heat.

15. Alex Corretja: Has never played to his potential in Melbourne, but innocuous draw should ensure that he at least lives up to seeding.

16. Sjeng Schalken: A second-week player at the last two Slams, keep an eye on the Sjengster.

LOWER SEEDS WORTH WATCHING

20. Xavier Malisse: Marat Lite. The talent is there, but where is his head?

22. Yevgeny Kafelnikov: In his swan song Down Under -- no, seriously -- the former champ will want to go out with more than a whimper.

23. James Blake: If he can get by Gonzalez -- in what could a hell of a match -- draw opens up.

25. Mikhail Youzhny: If he doesn't "blow a [Richard] Gasquet" in first round, Davis Cup hero could go far.

27. Jan-Michael Gambill: His play at the start of the year has been encouraging. Did he bring along enough rackets?

28. Fabrice Santoro: The master of the black arts is always dangerous.

30. Gustavo Kuerten: All eyes already are on his likely third-round showdown with Hewitt.

32. Stefan Koubek: Early leader in the Champions Race enters Australia on hot streak.

DANGEROUS FLOATERS

Max Mirnyi: It's all about the serve.

Mark Philippoussis: It's all about the serve.

Wayne Arthurs: It's all about the serve.

Richard Krajicek: When he's healthy -- no small conditional -- he can play with anyone.

Mardy Fish: Playing the best ball of his career.

FIRST-ROUND MATCHES TO WATCH

Youzhny vs. Richard Gasquet: Don't be surprised if this matchup comes in a Grand Slam final one day

Kuerten vs. Hicham Arazi: Nirvana for fans of shotmaking

Todd Reid vs. Richard Krajicek: Big generation gap could make for an intriguing match.

PREDICTIONS

Semifinals: Hewitt vs. Gonzalez, Moya vs. Agassi
Final: Hewitt vs. Moya
Champion: Hewitt

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