Face off

Surprises in store as first round gets under way

One thing's certain in the first round of the NHL playoffs: No matter how closely we analyze the games, no matter how confidently we make our predictions, we will at times be blissfully wrong. The improbable will occur. We can expect the unexpected. We can prepare to spend a lot of time nudging one another and saying, "Gosh, Willy, didya see that?" Welcome, everyone to the greatest surprise party on earth.

At least we know who the guests are: sixteen teams of Cup-hungry men. If there's any club that seems to be crashing the gate, it's the starless Canucks, who emerged from a dismal first half to nab the Western Conference's eighth seed and eliminate such playoff mainstays as the Stars and Oilers. Now Vancouver has an appointment in Detroit.

Even after their glorious second half (28-9-3-3 since Christmas) and spectacular stretch run (13-2-1 since mid-March), the Canucks are hardly household names. Oh, some may have gotten wind of Vancouver's excellent top line of Markus Naslund, Todd Bertuzzi and Brendan Morrison, and a few others may be well versed in the virtues of bruising blueliner Ed Jovanovski. What you may not be familiar with, however, is the edge with which the team plays. There's tough, unheralded center Matt Cooke, warrior Trevor Linden and a host of other guys who compete with a level of nastiness appropriate for the NHL's spring season. The Canucks take their cue from blustery general manager Brian Burke and equally blustery coach Marc Crawford, and they'll mix it up from the first line to the fourth, where the Sedin twins -- who came into the league overrated offensively, but underrated everywhere else -- can make life nettlesome for whomever they're out against.

Yet for all of that, a week from now we'll once again be saying, "Canuckies we hardly knew ye." At 26, Vancouver goalie Dan Cloutier has grown into a legitimate starter. Still, that doesn't make him equipped for the likes of the Red Wings. If he's not knocked off his skates by crease crashers like Tomas Holmstrom and Darren McCarty, he'll be shaken by the needle-threading shots of Brett Hull and Brendan Shanahan, Sergei Fedorov and Stevie Yzerman. If the sharpshooters don't rattle him, the sight of Dominik Hasek patrolling the opposite crease certainly will.

Vancouver may take a game from the Red Wings -- and the Canucks will surely play them tough in another one or two -- but that won't be nearly enough. Detroit is the superior team. Whereas the Canucks have one reliable scoring line, the Wings have three, and to stay even remotely close, Vancouver would need a goaltending performance far more spectacular than whatever Cloutier will be able to deliver.

Goaltending uncertainty can be an X-factor in any series and that's why, over in the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia is in for a struggle against Ottawa. You look at the Flyers and you see nice size and a wealth of talent that includes an all-star trio of centers in Adam Oates and Keith Primeau. Philadelphia has few weaknesses and it would seem netminder Roman Cechmanek, a Vezina candidate a year ago who put up strong numbers again this season, is not one of them. But he is.

Cechmanek's meltdown contributed to the Flyers' exit from the playoffs last year and he has a tendency to slip into stretches of lackluster play. If he does falter, even briefly, in this series, Philadelphia will turn to Brian Boucher, the phenom of two seasons ago who has since had his confidence battered by the Flyers' brass. There is ability but no solidity in this goaltending corps, and since goaltending is the backbone of a team's playoff chances, there's no solidity on the team either.

Ottawa's goaltending tandem -- Patrick Lalime (the starter, for now) and Jani Hurme -- is hardly more inspired, but the duo will be enough to win this series. The Sens are a team that can skate and score, and enough pressure from Daniel Alfredsson, Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat and Co. should unnerve the Flyers. Every year we expect Ottawa to follow up a great regular season with some playoff productivity and every year the club gets bounced quickly. This year expectations are low, and the Senators, who went 2-1-1 against Philadelphia this year, have a chance to take the Flyers and most prognosticators by surprise.

There are many storylines to follow in this opening round: Montreal's thrilling return to the playoffs, their MVP-candidate goalie José Théodore and remarkable forward Saku Koivu; the Avalanche and Kings meet out West, which could be as good a playoff series as we'll see all spring; plus, there are the upstart Islanders and the underdog Coyotes. Here we've looked in depth at two of the eight series for which hockey fans have geared up all year. Keep your eyes on these two and on all the rest. You never know what you'll see.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Kostya Kennedy covers the NHL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his NHL mailbag.

 

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