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The surest bet of all

Click here for more on this story

Posted: Thursday May 04, 2000 01:14 PM

  View the Leigh Montville Insider archive

No favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since 1979. Isn't that just about the best statistic in all of sports? For 20 years, the great wizards and poobahs of horse racing -- the handicappers, no less -- have not been able to figure out the winner of the most important, most watched event on the racing calendar.

Twenty years.

The touts and tipsters know nothing. They prattle about bloodlines and morning workouts, about track bias and weather conditions, fold their Daily Racing Form into cocked hats, churn their figures through computers... and come out wrong. Old women who pick a favorite because of a name, a color, an ingredient in a recipe for oatmeal. Neophytes, closing their eyes, do better.

No experts in any field have been less expert than the Derby experts. If they were in politics, they would have told us to lay the heavy money on McCain and Bradley. In Hollywood, they probably would have thought Jim Carrey was a mortal Oscar lock. If they were stockbrokers... well, they wouldn't be stockbrokers today.

Their pick for the 126th edition of the Run for the Roses on Saturday at Churchill Downs is Fusaichi Pegasus, 9-to-5 odds at the beginning of the week. The horse already has shown a skittishness at the sight of big crowds, a tendency to buck and act contentious, but, hey the bloodlines are right and the workout times are right and the past performances are right and the pick is the pick.

Myself, I'm sticking with the astrological charts of the jockeys. Something solid.


 
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