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Inside College Basketball
For many high school and college stars, the decision to go pro early is a sound one By Seth Davis
Although the NBA and NCAA try to discourage young players from turning pro, the system all but demands they test the waters. For one thing, there is now much more information available to help a collegian or a high schooler make an informed decision if he puts in for the draft. He gets the benefit of input from NBA scouts and general managers who project where the player will be drafted. The player can even compete at NBA predraft showcases and still withdraw from the draft by June 20 if he hasn't signed with an agent. (No such escape option exists for high schoolers who enter the draft.) More than that, however, it's the league's salary structure that most encourages young players to jump. Here are some factors they must consider: The free-agent clock. Under the NBA collective bargaining agreement, teams can lock up their first-round picks for as many as five years before the player can cash in as a free agent. Thus, it may be prudent for someone like St. John's freshman Omar Cook, who recently declared himself draft-eligible, to get into the league as early as possible, even if it means riding the pine his first couple of seasons. Says agent Joel Bell, "I've heard many college players say, 'I'm not ready now, but in three or four years I will be, and that's what counts.'" Positioning. At 6'7", Arizona junior Michael Wright is too small to play power forward in the NBA, but that's what he would have played if he returned to college next year. That undoubtedly factored into Wright's decision to enter the draft, just as it did last year for 6'8" Florida freshman Donnell Harvey, who was selected 22nd overall by the Knicks, who traded him to the Mavericks. "Donnell never stepped more than five feet from the basket at Florida," says Harvey's agent, Dan Fagan. "For him to be successful as a pro, he needs to develop his perimeter skills." The Terence Morris factor. So named for the 6'9" Maryland senior who probably would have been a lottery pick had he come out after averaging 15.3 points and 7.1 rebounds in his sophomore year but now will be lucky to be selected in the first round following his senior season, when he had 12.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. That lesson wasn't lost on Alabama freshman Gerald Wallace, who has entered the draft even though he may have lost considerable ground by completing his freshman year (and averaging only 6.3 points a game in SEC play) rather than turning pro straight out of high school a year ago. To be sure, some youngsters also make costly mistakes by trying to turn pro too early, but as long as the odds favor the players plenty more will be willing to take their chances. "These guys are trying to maximize their careers," Tellem says. "If the process gives them all this incentive to leave early, then you can't fault them for doing it." Issue date: May 21, 2001
For more Inside College Basketball see this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, on newsstands Wednesday, May 16. Click here to subscribe to SI.
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