Inside the NBA

Danger: Draft Ahead  

With few college seniors of interest, this year's lottery has higher risks than usual

By Ian Thomsen

Has there ever been a tougher year to be an NBA G.M. with a high draft pick? It appears that for the first time in league history no team will choose a college senior in the first 13 picks. The highest rated senior is 6-foot point guard Dan Dickau from Gonzaga, who is expected to go in the mid- to late teens. Before this draft the latest pick at which the first senior was taken was the Nets' selection of Kerry Kittles at No. 8 in 1996.

Williams should go No. 2, but some scouts worry about his size. Damian Strohmeyer

Of course, the risk of a botched pick only increases with teenagers, whose talents are in an early state of development, and foreigners, whose track records are tougher to read. The surest shot in the draft is 6'2" Duke junior Jay Williams -- and even so, there are a few scouts who say his size will prevent him from becoming an All-Star. Williams likens himself to another NCAA title-winning point guard, one who overcame his lack of height with quickness, sharpshooting and confidence to become a 12-time All-Star. "Isiah [Thomas] was really good in college and even better in the NBA," says Williams. "I'd like to try to mark my game after him."

After 7'5" Yao Ming goes No. 1 to the Rockets and Williams is chosen second by the Bulls, how will the June 26 draft shake out? Here are the most interesting people to watch:

Mike Dunleavy. At week's end the second-team All-America hadn't decided whether to remain in the draft or return to Duke for his senior year. Though Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski rates Dunleavy as the school's most versatile player since Grant Hill, some G.M.'s think he might be pushed around as a rookie. "I need to get a little stronger, but 6'9", 220 is pretty good for a small forward," says Dunleavy, who believes he will be helped by the experiences of his father (and namesake), a former NBA player and coach. "I should be able to make the transition better just from having been around the league so many years."

Jerry West. As the new president of the Grizzlies, Mr. Clutch has the No. 4 pick. He hasn't chosen that high since he picked James Worthy first for the Lakers in 1982. Rival executives don't know what to expect of West, a master of deception. When he recently told Kansas forward Drew Gooden that he should be a top four pick, did that mean West plans to draft Gooden? Or is he creating a smoke screen? Will he trade the pick, along with an unwanted salary or two, in exchange for a veteran player? His friends believe that West, 64, will guide the Grizzlies for no more than four to five years, which means he'll try to put his personal stamp on the team right away, starting on draft night.

Kiki Vandeweghe. The equally unpredictable G.M. of Denver will impact the draft with a strategy opposite that of West. The Nuggets plan to use the No. 5 pick on the player they feel has the greatest long-term potential. That could be 19-year-old Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a slim, broad-shouldered 7-footer from the Republic of Georgia who runs, handles the ball and shoots like a small forward. Many are calling him the next Dirk Nowitzki. But some respected scouts point to the fact that Tskitishvili doesn't start for his Italian league team and wonder about all the hype.

Scott Layden. New York's No. 7 pick, packaged with one of its starters, is its most valuable asset, and Layden, the Knicks' G.M., has been discussing a variety of moves. He might try to deal the pick along with Marcus Camby or Latrell Sprewell in exchange for an established big man. For a team that's under a win-now-or-else edict, that would make more sense than bringing in a young player who will need three or four years to develop.

Issue date: June 24, 2002

For more Inside the NBA see this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, on newsstands Wednesday, June 19. Click here to subscribe to SI.

 

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