Dr. Z's Forecast

By Paul Zimmerman

We've seen this Super Bowl matchup before. We saw it 11 years ago when Marv Levy's three-wideout, hurry-up Bills offense, a dazzling show that had rung up 95 points in its two previous playoff games, ran into the stodgy, defensive-minded Giants. New York upset favored Buffalo by a point.

Bill Belichick ran the Giants' defense that day, and he devised an excellent game plan that left his linebackers on the field against all those speedy receivers and concentrated on punishing them whenever they ran short, timed routes. By the fourth quarter the Bills were dropping the ball, and only the heroic work of Thurman Thomas, a great running and pass-catching back, gave Buffalo a chance to win at the end, right up to Scott Norwood's missed field goal.

For the first time as a head coach, Belichick is in the big arena, this time leading the amazing Patriots, heavy underdogs to a Rams team reminiscent of those flashy Bills. What can we expect from Belichick defensively? Listen to his strongside linebacker, Mike Vrabel, who helped make things uncomfortable for St. Louis when the teams met on Nov. 18. "Our DBs and linebackers kept jamming their receivers," Vrabel says. "We were more physical than most teams that played them. We might give up a few holding and interference penalties, but in the long run it's to our advantage. You wear them down and even start getting offensive interference penalties."

Sound familiar? In that first meeting the Patriots blitzed like crazy in the first half and intercepted Kurt Warner twice, returning one for a touchdown and taking a 10-7 lead in the second quarter. Then in the second half Warner zeroed in on his hot reads and quick, timed patterns, and it was all over. Still, it was scary for a while. "It was Star Wars," St. Louis coach Mike Martz recalls. "I've never seen so many guys flying at us from so many directions." St. Louis won 24-17, but New England has won eight straight since.

The difference this time is that both teams have banged-up quarterbacks. Against the Eagles on Sunday the Rams spent a large part of the afternoon going with their big guys -- tight ends Ernie Conwell and Jeff Robinson and 270-pound blocking fullback James Hodgins. The scheme was designed to protect Warner, who had very sore ribs, and leaned heavily on Marshall Faulk, who ran for 159 yards. This week? If Warner is healthy, you'll see St. Louis open it up. If not, you'll see more of what Philadelphia got.

New England's attack also hinges on the health of its quarterback. Tom Brady left late in the second quarter of the win over the Steelers with an injured left ankle. On the four snaps he took in the first half Drew Bledsoe achieved legendary status, so much so that there is speculation that Belichick might start him against the Rams, a bit of mystery I'm sure the coach will keep alive right till kickoff.

Let's look at this logically. In his first series Bledsoe completed three passes, the last one for a touchdown. After that, however, he was 7 of 18 for 66 yards, and he produced points on only one of six possessions, a field goal. Even worse, the protection, geared to Brady's quicker release, broke down at times, having to adjust to Bledsoe's habit of holding the ball.

My guess is, if he's healthy enough, Brady will start. A Patriots victory wouldn't shock me, given the kind of roll they're on. But the St. Louis defense is on one too. Call it 27-24, Rams.

Issue date: February 4, 2002

For more Inside the NFL see this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, on newsstands Wednesday, January 30. Click here to subscribe to SI.

 

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