Dr. Z's Forecast

By Paul Zimmerman

I actually heard some analysts say last week that if the Packers had clinched the NFC North on Sunday, becoming the earliest team to wrap up a playoff spot since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, it would have been the worst thing that could have happened to them. Why? Because the Packers would have lost their edge, malaise would have set in, the deck chairs and sunglasses would have come out.

Sapp will have plenty of reason to crow after a fifth straight victory over the Packers in Tampa. Bob Rosato

But after a loss to the Vikings proved that the they were mortal and kept their division lead at a nerve-racking five games, the Packers are ready to take on their most serious opponent of the year, Tampa Bay. The Bucs don't have to worry about clinching too early. They're in a three-way fight with the Saints and the Falcons in the NFC South.

Recent history has seen some lively battles between Green Bay and Tampa Bay when they were both in the NFC Central and met twice a year. It's been a little like a morality play, with the leading actors unchanged for the past seven years or so -- Brett Favre versus the Demons of Defense, featuring Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks and John Lynch. And for the past four years the story line has been the same: The Packers win at Lambeau but lose at Raymond James, which is the venue this Sunday.

The losses in Tampa have been particularly hard on Favre. Four years ago the Bucs sacked him eight times. Over the past three years he has thrown five interceptions, including three in last season's defeat in which he drove his team to the Bucs' eight-yard line as the clock ran out.

Green Bay, which has done a remarkable job of fighting through injuries, got its wake-up call against the Vikings. The Panthers, with all the problems they've had, played Tampa Bay even for almost three quarters, finally collapsing under the weight of four turnovers. It could be that the Packers and the Bucs were looking ahead. I think they'll both try to run the ball, trading body blows for a while. Minnesota ran for 218 yards on Green Bay. Under a heavy rush, Favre will still get his yards, but he'll have to work for them. Logic says the Pack has more firepower, but I'm riding with Tampa Bay and that home field edge.

• It was a scary day for quarterbacks on Sunday, and now Denver sends out 37-year-old Steve Beuerlein against the Colts; Pittsburgh gets a second go-round from Kordell Stewart, this time against Cincinnati; and Philadelphia goes with Koy Detmer against the 49ers. The Broncos will win on the ground, the Steelers will win on memory, but the Eagles? They're going to have to rally around Detmer, who, believe it or not, has been an Eagle for six years, and raise the level of their play on defense and in the running game. I think they'll do it eventually, but not on the road against a playoff-caliber team in a Monday nighter. The Niners will take it.

• Ride the hot teams. The Titans extend their winning streak to six, against the Ravens. The Giants get their fourth in a row, at Houston. The Falcons make it seven straight without a loss, in Carolina. And the Jets, who are shooting for their fourth in a row, at home against the Bills? Well, that's where it ends. The Bills avenge an opening-day overtime loss to their division rival.

• San Diego will be looking ahead to Denver, and Miami will be looking ahead to Buffalo. I say this will be a turnover game. The Chargers, who abandoned the soft defensive approach that cost them two games and returned to a blitz package in an overtime win over the 49ers, will make things tough for quarterback Ray Lucas. But Miami will put even more pressure on San Diego's banged-up offensive line. The Dolphins take it.

• The Jaguars will win in Dallas. The Chiefs, with Priest Holmes piling up about 200 yards rushing and receiving, will beat Seattle, and the Rams, with the quarterback situation still a subject of lively debate, will top the Redskins.

• The Bears will join the ranks of the living and beat Detroit. The Patriots will stay in the thick of the AFC East race with a win over the Vikings. New Orleans will bounce back against Cleveland. The Raiders will fry the Cardinals in the desert.

Issue date: November 25, 2002

For more Inside the NFL see this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, on newsstands Wednesday, Novmeber 20. Click here to subscribe to SI.

 

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