Rolling the dice

Celtics taking huge gamble with Baker acquisition

Larry Bird might want to hold off on that Charlotte expansion thing.

If this Vin Baker trade doesn’t work out for Boston, Celtics fans will be begging Larry Legend to rescue the franchise next summer -- and ship owner Paul Gaston out on a raft down the Charles River.

Boston, quite simply, is taking a huge gamble. The Celtics won 49 games and made it to the Eastern Conference finals a year ago. After a seven-year playoff drought, they sparked a resurgence of Celtic-mania not seen since Bird was ruling the roost over a decade ago.

So why is Gaston tinkering with success? Why is he taking on the underachieving Baker and his $50 million contract? Why is he leaving Boston with only Tony Delk and Shammond Williams, neither of whom have ever been regular starters in the NBA, to run the point? Why is he potentially disrupting the stifling team defense that head coach Jim O’Brien and ace assitant Dick Harter installed last season?

The answer, of course, is the luxury tax.

Like Pat Riley’s Heat a year ago, the Celtics are willing to let key players go rather than see their payroll creep over the estimated $50 million threshold and have to pay the tax next season. Instead of shelling out an extra few million (which would be doubled by the dollar-for-dollar tax) to re-sign free agent forward Rodney Rogers, the Celtics are going to save the dough and hope Baker can take his place.

Who's Going Where Team  Acquired    F/C Vin Baker G Shammond Williams    G Kenny Anderson G Joe Forte C Vitaly Potapenko

Taking on Baker's enormous contract may sound like a strange way to save money, but the numbers don't lie. By acquiring Baker ($12.4 million next season) and Williams ($2.0 million), the Celtics will pay a million less in 2002-03 than they would have had they kept Anderson ($9.2 million), Vitaly Potapenko ($5.2 million) and Joe Forte ($1.0 million). Meanwhile, they don’t have to pay Rogers the $4.5 million it would have taken to re-sign him.

Boston can only hope this penny-pinching doesn’t backfire as badly as it did on the Heat.

It’s not so much that Baker won’t be a decent player; it’s that he’s not going to make anybody forget Rogers -- let alone Bird. Yes, the 6-foot-11 Baker is a four-time All-Star who can score a little in the low post and get away with playing center in the Eastern Conference. And it’s true that, after several years of disappointing play, he might be rejuvenated by a return to his New England roots.

But Baker doesn't rebound nearly well enough for a big man, and he’s not fleet defensively, meaning he won’t provide much cover for Antoine Walker. Also, his low-post scoring dimension could be moot. Walker and Paul Pierce take all of Boston’s shots anyway.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are likely to miss Anderson more than they think. The 11-year veteran did a good job last year setting up Boston’s offense, getting the ball to Pierce and Walker in their favorite spots and coming up with steals on the defensive end. Who knows if Delk or Williams is ready to step in and run an elite-level NBA team on a full-time basis?

For the Sonics, the trade is a no-brainer. Not only do they get rid of Baker’s bloated contract, but they also get Anderson in the last year of his deal. If they decide to let him go after the season, they could potentially get as much as $9 million under the salary cap in time for the free-agent bumper crop of 2003.

Seattle certainly isn’t worried about losing Baker’s production on the court. Last year the Sonics made the playoffs with rookie Vladimir Radmanovic logging heavy minutes at power forward. In fact, without Baker in the lineup, the Sonics went 19-8 last year.

If that doesn’t make Celtics fans take pause, then they might want to consider this: The Celtics will get a reported $6 million this season from the players’ escrow fund. Also, because of lower-than-expected revenues, Pierce’s maximum contract will be worth some $4 million less over the life of the deal than previously assumed.

Did we mention that the Celtics have raised ticket prices?

With the extra cash on hand, it sure seems as though Gaston wouldn’t want to mess with a good thing. Gang Green fans will be watching closely. Vin better win, or the owner isn’t going to hear the end of it. Neither is Larry Bird.

Marty Burns covers pro basketball for CNNSI.com. Click here to send Marty a question or comment.

 

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