Wishful thinking?

Arenas not completely sold on leaving Golden State

Just back from a vacation in Costa Rica, Warriors point guard Gilbert Arenas worked out at the team’s practice facility Tuesday.

Normally this wouldn’t be news.

But for Warriors fans, awaiting word of whether their young star free agent will re-sign with the team or bolt for more money in Denver or elsewhere, every good omen helps.

"Actually, he’s been around a lot this whole summer," says Warriors assistant coach Phil Hubbard, who was at the facility Tuesday to take care of personal business before starting a new job on Eddie Jordan’s staff in Washington.

"For the most part, I think he likes it [in Golden State]. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he stayed."

Hubbard is not alone. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but there is a growing sense among many in the Warriors organization that Arenas might not be a lost cause after all. Sure, Denver can offer him a lot more money, but there is something about the way the third-year guard interacts with front office staff and coaches that leads them to think he genuinely wants to stay.

"If he didn’t like it here, would he be hanging around so much and working out?" one team official asked.

The problem, ye Golden State optimists, is money. As the folks around Sutter’s Mill used to say, "There’s gold in them thar hills!" -- and in this case the hills are located in the far off yonder Rockies.

The Nuggets, with some $18 to $20 million in available cap space, are expected to offer Arenas a deal for six years starting at $7 million with 10 percent annual raises. That would mean a total package worth $54.0 million.

The Warriors, by league rules, can offer at best a six-year deal starting at the mid-level exception (roughly $4.9 million) with 12.5 percent annual raises. That would mean a total package worth $40.3 million. No matter how much Arenas might like his teammates, the Bay Area climate and the chance to cruise the foothills in his $55,000 Cadillac Escalade (the one with the $30,000 custom stereo system and four TV screens), that’s a lot of dough to pass up.

Warriors fans like to point out that if money is the main concern for Arenas, he could sign a one-year deal with the team for $4.9 million then become an unrestricted free agent next season. At that point Golden State could give him a seven-year max deal worth around $92 million.

True. But if Arenas should have a bad year (think Marc Jackson) or blow out a knee (think Derek Anderson) or suffer some off-court calamity (think Jay Williams), he might never see that cash. "Remember, you can’t have any kind of agreement. It would be illegal," reminded one Western Conference GM, among the many who no doubt will be watching closely.

For now, Arenas is saying that he intends to explore his options but hasn’t ruled out a return to the Warriors. On Monday his agent, Dan Fegan, told the Contra-Costa Times Arenas "had a great experience at Golden State last year and that will factor into his decision."

Of course, that same day Arenas sounded excited about the possibility of joining the Nuggets. "I have a great relationship with [Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe]," Arenas told the Denver Post. "They have a young team that is hungry. I'm a hungry young player, too. That would be a good fit for me."

The whole situation, keep in mind, is predicated on how much Denver is willing to offer. At least one GM says he isn’t so sure the Nuggets will start at the magic $7 million figure, given the lack of teams with salary cap space. With Andre Miller also a free agent, Denver might try to get him cheaper and save money for other free agents at other positions.

Still, the Nuggets clearly have targeted the 21-year-old Arenas, who won Most Improved Player last year and could be a major building block for their future. Even one Warriors player who shall remain anonymous told me during the season he thought Arenas was a goner.

Hubbard isn’t so sure, but he admits it would be a blow to the Warriors organization. "This team’s made for him pretty much, in terms of system and style," he said. "It would be his team, in a way."

But as everybody knows, money talks. And in this case it would be hard to blame Arenas for heeding its call.

Marty Burns covers pro basketball for SI.com. Click here to send Marty a question or comment.

 

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