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Nothing's guaranteed

Powerful Lakers still have questions to answer

Posted: Friday July 18, 2003 12:44 PM
Updated: Friday July 18, 2003 1:32 PM
  Marty Burns - NBA Mailbag

Too old. Too many egos. No bench.

Reasons for why the Lakers won’t win the 2003-04 NBA title -- despite the additions of Gary Payton and Karl Malone -- keep pouring in. From Boston to Portland (and especially from San Antonio and Sacramento), this week’s mailbag was full of letters from folks who want to douse me in gasoline, light a match and then cane me publicly for saying the Lakers can go ahead and start planning their victory parade.

To those folks, I say … you raise many valid points.

Shaq is over 30, with a nagging toe injury.

Malone, who turns 40 next week, isn’t the same spry low-post scoring machine or defender he once was. Even the Glove has lost some of his Vel-cro on defense.

And, yes, Phil Jackson is going to have his hands full trying to keep everybody happy and on the same page. Malone, in particular, can be headstrong. Didn’t he bristle at Kobe Bryant’s shot selection at an All-Star Game a few years back?

Absolutely, this Lakers chemistry experiment could turn out to be Hollywood’s biggest disaster since Ishtar.

But great players usually find a way to make it work. The Lakers won three NBA titles with Shaq and Kobe. Now they’ve got Malone to sink that silky jumper from outside, the one that has killed a lot of foes in a lot of big games over the years. They’ve got Payton to get in the grill of a Tony Parker or a Mike Bibby and at least slow them down a tad and keep them from doing critical damage.

If they all stay healthy, and Shaq gets in shape, the Lakers should be a beast. The fact that Payton and Malone took less money to play in L.A. indicates that they want to win a title and will do what is necessary. With Derek Fisher and Rick Fox on the bench, depth isn’t so big a problem.

The Spurs, Kings and Mavs are deep and talented as well, and one still might add a Scottie Pippen or some other quality veteran to its mix. It’s also possible the Lakers won’t be able to mesh in time and they will implode under the pressure. But folks said the same thing about Dennis Rodman joining the Bulls in ’96.

We’ll see what happens. Like the saying goes, that’s why they play the games. But it sure looks good for L.A. at present.

Now onto the ‘bag:

Do you believe that signing Rasho Nesterovic was a good idea for the Spurs? His breakout year doesn't look much better than the season that Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, or even Kwame Brown had. Would it have been better to trade for one of those three instead?
-- Trey, San Marcos, Texas

Nesterovic’s numbers last season (11.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists) aren’t much better than those of some other young big men around the league with more upside. But Nesterovic is a true 7-footer, he’s more experienced and his playing style fits better with what the Spurs want to do. Coach Gregg Popovich wanted somebody who could help Tim Duncan right away, not a year or two from now. As a replacement for David Robinson, Nesterovic is more ready and a better fit.

With John Stockton and Karl Malone now gone from the Jazz, and the Jazz looking to sign Corey Maggette, who will be the leader of this team? It seems like they're all kids who have followed others throughout their careers.
-- Robert J. Braecklein, Salt Lake City

Good question, Robert. I posed it to Jazz GM Kevin O’Connor, and here’s his reply: "I think Jerry Sloan would say, and I’d agree with him, that we don’t know yet. We’ll see. Somebody will have to step up." O’Connor went on to add that he will not necessarily go out and try to sign a player who can fill a leadership role. He said the organization’s first goal right now is to add young talent. For now, then, it appears that Matt Harpring and Maggette (if the Clippers don’t match) will be counted on to lead the youthful new-look Jazz next season.

Where do the Celtics stand with Vin Baker right now, and when is the earliest they'll be able to get out from under his contract to get some real help for Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker (if he's still there)?
-- Don Isenbarger, Xenia, Ohio

Coach Jim O’Brien saw Baker recently at a charity event and said he looked fit and excited about the season. That’s good news for the Celts, because Baker still has three years and $44 million left on his contract. In other words, he’s pretty much untradeable. Hopefully the treatment for alcohol and other medical issues will help Baker, and he will be productive again. But we really won’t know for sure until Nov. 1.

Since the Sonics had a lackluster draft again, who do you see them getting in free agency?
-- Ryan Knee, Ellensburg, Wash.

The Sonics, like most teams, have only the mid-level exception to offer free agents. They made a bid for Juwan Howard, but he signed with the Magic instead. They also would like to add a veteran point guard. Antonio Daniels has been mentioned, along with Speedy Claxton, Jacque Vaughn and Chris Whitney.

It seems like Mark Cuban and the Mavericks have had little success in the free agent market this summer. They went strong after Alonzo Mourning the first day teams were allowed to negotiate with players, but he's [going to] New Jersey. They were also interested in Karl Malone, Jermaine O'Neal, and Jason Kidd, but they're not coming to Big D either. Cuban had the same problem last year trying to acquire Rashard Lewis. Dallas made it to the Western Conference Finals this past season. What is the problem? Why don't free agents want to play for the Mavericks?
-- Bruce Jones Jr., Atlantic City, N.J.

Don’t give up hope yet. The Mavs still might get Pippen or another decent veteran who can help. Cuban’s problem is that he doesn’t have any salary cap space. Yes, some players have bypassed the Mavs to play elsewhere for the same money (Malone and ‘Zo) but each had reasons that had little to do with the Mavs. As long as the Mavs stay competitive and Cuban keeps treating players well, Dallas will be a desired destination for free agents.

Last year the Nets drafted a Yugoslavian big man (whose name I've now forgotten) and who wasn't allowed to join the team for legal reasons. I read a little blip about a month ago that he might play this season? Any news?
-- Bob Hunt, Hillsborough, N.J.

You are referring to Nenad Krstic, the Yugoslavian teen who has been dubbed "the next Vlade Divac." Right now it appears the 7-footer (he reportedly has grown an inch and added 20 pounds since last year) won’t be here until the 2004-05 season. He is under contract with his Yugoslavian team (partially owned by Divac, by the way), which has been unwilling to let him go. The Nets say the highly-skilled Krstic would have been a lottery pick in this year’s draft and they’re more than willing to wait.

Now that he’s with the Lakers, some say Malone won’t be able to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s career scoring record. But Malone was not going to make it in a single season anyway, not with any team he could have signed with. Also, the Mailman might get less shots but score on more of the ones he gets. Do you agree?
-- Simon Astrup, Aarhus, Denmark

Even with the Lakers, Malone should break Kareem’s scoring record sometime in the 2004-05 season -- assuming he stays healthy. Going into this season he needs 2,013 points. That means he’d only need to average 12.6 points per game over the next two seasons (160 games). Even in a reduced role in L.A., as you say, he should get enough open looks to score that many. If not, he can play another season and break the record in 2005-06.

Is there any way that the Raptors can rebound from their horrific season a year ago? They signed Chris Bosh, their No. 1 pick, and hopefully Lamond Murray will be healthy to give them a legitimate No. 2 option. Also, do they have any cap room to pick up a second tier free agent?
-- Jason Mazzie, Daejeon, South Korea

The Raptors just signed Jerome Moiso, Milt Palacio and Menk Bateer, three guys who should add a little depth at least. But the main thing for new Raptors coach Kevin O’Neill is to get Vince Carter healthy and motivated again. If Air Canada can regain his all-star form, and guys like Murray, Alvin Williams, Antonio Davis and Jerome Williams come back strong, the Raptors could be back in the playoff mix again.

Did Rick Fox ever make the All-Star Game for Boston, and if so, would the Lakers be unprecedented in starting five former All-Stars? Maybe the Celtics of the ‘80s? How about five players who have led an NBA team in scoring over a season? Has Payton ever done this?
-- Daniel, Dartmouth, Mass.

Sorry, Fox has never been an All-Star. Even if he had been, the Lakers wouldn’t be the first team to start five All-Stars. As you point out, the ‘87-88 Celtics had a unit of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson and Danny Ainge (he made it in ’88). There are probably other examples as well. As for team scoring leaders, yes, the Lakers could field such a starting five. Payton led the Sonics several times and Fox led the C’s in ’96, though he finished with a lower scoring average than Dino Radja.

People actually pay you for your opinions? Looks like the Lakers will sign Payton and Malone, thus becoming one of the greatest teams of all time. Now don't you look like a dumb----.
-- Richard Weissfeld, Encino, Calif.

Why such hostility, Richard? I never wrote that it would not happen, just that it was "a longshot." Frankly, I’m still shocked. It’s rare for one pro athlete -- let alone two -- to leave money on the table like that. But as I noted in the piece, maybe the Glove and the Mailman truly do want a ring that bad. Or maybe, as some of my cynical friends say, they think they can get it back in endorsements.

Marty Burns covers pro basketball for SI.com. Click here to send Marty a question or comment.


 
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