Three's company

According to most scouts, the 2002 NHL entry draft is a top-heavy one, led by one forward, one defenseman and one goaltender. After that, as in most years, it’s a crapshoot. In an effort to sort it all out, CNNSI.com spoke to Sports Illustrated senior writer Michael Farber, who handicaps the race and explains why the fun begins as soon as Atlanta is on the clock.

CNNSI.com: How big a day is this on the NHL calendar?

Farber: Over the long term it’s very big. There are two ways to build a team, one of which is through free agency, but that route is only for a relatively select few teams. Scouting, drafting and player development form the basis for building teams, even if the gains aren’t immediately apparent. The classic case of a good draft is Detroit’s ’89 class, which included Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov. Three other players the Red Wings took that year are still in the NHL: Dallas Drake, Bob Boughner and Mike Sillinger.

CNNSI.com: In the recent past Mike Milbury and Brian Burke have made early waves in the draft. Can we expect any maverick dealing this time around?

Farber: I expect Florida to play it straight and go for Jay Bouwmeester, even though the Panthers have a couple if puck-moving defensemen in their system already and don’t have many Rick Nash-type players. Bouwmeester has star written all over him. He’s a big, smooth-skating defenseman who is physical enough. And Mike Keenan likes big defenseman, don’t we all? The only one mark against Bouwmeester is that he hasn’t dominated in the World Juniors.

Draft Lessons Most teams roll through a list to pick players each round. Needs always vary from year to year, of course, but you don’t want to pass on someone you might think is a good player just because he fills a need. Sometimes a team tries too hard to address one area. One example is the Canadiens of a decade ago. Montreal thought it needed bigger players, so it drafted a series of big WHL kids who never made it. Of course this endeared them to the fans of the Seattle Thunderbirds, but there’s a danger in trying to address a need too directly. —M.F.

CNNSI.com: Since you mention Nash, the subject of a recent Sports Illustrated profile, what kind of game does he play?

Farber: Nash plays for the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League, so everyone toggles to Detroit’s Brendan Shanahan. The two have similar size, though Nash is a bit taller, and if he has a career like Shanahan’s, which includes 500 goals and three Stanley Cups, I’m sure the team that takes him will be delirious.

CNNSI.com: After Bouwmeester and Nash, how deep is this draft?

Farber: This one isn’t unusually deep. Among the top 10, someone will find a player that will make at least some impact in a relatively short period of time. But people who don’t understand hockey should compare the NHL draft to Major League Baseball’s draft. Players won’t take that long to develop, but it’s not like we’ve seen these guys in the NCAA tournament or every Saturday playing college football.

In terms of future stars, scouts think of this as a three-player draft. After Bouwmeester and Nash, the third is a Finnish goaltender, Kari Lehtonen, who has been compared favorably to Florida’s Roberto Luongo and is probably thought more highly of than Rick DiPietro was. If Florida wants to get jiggy with it, the Panthers could take Lehtonen and make a deal if they see overwhelming interest because the goaltending position is so important, but it’s unlikely that will happen.

CNNSI.com: Goaltender may be the most important position, but projecting future goaltenders can be difficult …

Farber: Goaltending is the toughest position to scout for a couple of reasons. Besides the fact that most GMs didn’t play the position and aren’t as familiar with it, goaltenders develop later in their careers, with the exceptions of Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur. By that time organizations tend to lose patience. There’s a good chance that if you draft a goaltending prospect, he won’t be around by the time he’s ready to star. The tradition of waiting to pick goaltenders later in the draft has changed some with Luongo, who is with his second team, and DiPietro, who could also be moved if the Islanders commit to Chris Osgood over the long term.

CNNSI.com: Any chance there is a forward with, say, Ilya Kovalchuk-type skills lurking in this draft class?

Farber: Ilya Kovalchuk is a once-in-a-decade player. Even a top-three pick like Rick Nash is pretty well a once-a-year player. There’s usually a big Canadian power forward whom people project as a star, but not with Kovalchuk’s finesse and talent. It’s also worth noting that no player has gone from junior hockey to winning the Calder Trophy since Mario Lemieux, even though Kovalchuk came close this season.

CNNSI.com: While we’re on the subject of the Thrashers, they are again in a most interesting position in this draft.

Farber: I think Atlanta holds the key to this draft. They can go so many different ways. From the beginning, the Thrashers’ downfall was not having a goaltender that was built for expansion hockey. Damian Rhodes’ makeup was spectacularly unsuited for an expansion team and the Thrashers haven’t really recovered. They’ve done well in the draft, obviously, with Kovalchuk and this season’s Calder winner, Dany Heatley, and they get a pass on Patrik Stefan because every team would have taken him in that spot.

Don Waddell is relatively happy now with his young goalies, but at some point this team is going to have to think of, if not the short term, at least the medium term. And you are not going to get that in this draft. That’s why Atlanta has been entertaining offers for its pick.

CNNSI.com: How does the approaching period of free agency affect the draft weekend?

Farber: It’s the background noise of the draft. Draft day itself is for the scouts and assistant general managers. But addressing free agency is the GM’s time. Because we won’t be seeing most, if any, of these players after training camp, the most significant event of the coming week is when Don Meehan meets with the Maple Leafs to try to iron out a deal for Curtis Joseph. Once July 1 hits, if he’s not signed, teams will go full bore after Joseph. GMs are going to be talking about some trades, most of which will include draft choices but some will set the table for what happens after July 1.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Michael Farber covers the NHL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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