Opening statements

Eight clubs will play through, but first things first

Sports Illustrated senior writer Michael Farber breaks down each of the NHL’s eight first-round playoff series matchups.

Eastern Conference | Western Conference

It appears to be a lay-down hand for the Ottawa Senators. The Islanders covered their eyes with their hands down the stretch and still managed to creep into the playoffs, but they remain an unconvincing and fragile team. Of course, that can change in a hurry during the playoffs, but Garth Snow is going to have to play the best goal of his career and Alexei Yashin is going to have to prove himself as a playoff performer. Their defense, plus Michael Peca, will have to carry them. The Islanders didn’t show a lot of character toward the end of the season, but character has been a problem in the past for Ottawa, too. The Senators improved in that department and will need more than the playoff histories indicate from Marian Hossa, who has five playoff goals in 27 games, and Radek Bonk, who has three in 36. Patrick Lalime, however, is ready to take the next step in his evolution as a goaltender.

Boston has four goalies. Unfortunately, only one can play, and that’s giving Bruins’ netminding the benefit of the doubt. Jeff Hackett is still bothered by his broken finger, Steve Shields tweaked a knee, Tim Thomas is a better story than he is a goaltender, and Andrew Raycroft was in Providence the last we’d heard from him. This is not a formula for success. The good news is they have one extraordinary line that includes Joe Thornton and Glen Murray. It’s a line capable of a couple of goals a game, which against New Jersey is sometimes enough. The Devils deserve to be strong favorites, but their propensity for long goal-scoring droughts is a worry. New Jersey goalie Martin Brodeur can perform a high-wire act better than anyone in the league while he’s protecting a slim margin, but this gets old. The defense will have to generate offense from the back end, most notably Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski. Bear in mind that over the past nine years, the No. 7 seed is 11-7 against the No. 2 seed in the first round, though I don’t see it happening here.

The mystery series. Washington has more talent, but it is the most inconsistent team in the NHL. You never know which team will show up, largely because you don’t know which Jaromir Jagr is going to show up from night to night. Goalie Olaf Kolzig had an outstanding season, but really no better than Tampa Bay’s Nikolai Khabibulin, who has the benefit of being one of the hottest players in the NHL. The Lightning can score, thanks to the underrated Vinny Prospal, the undersized Martin St. Louis and Brad Richards, who does not receive nearly the publicity he deserves. The question will be how Tampa Bay’s younger players hold up under the scrutiny of the playoffs, and whether Khabibulin can outduel Kolzig.

This is the early Armageddon matchup. The Maple Leafs and Flyers have spent money upgrading for the playoffs. Both have veteran, gritty teams capable of getting to the finals or being embarrassed in the first round. You would feel a lot better for the Maple Leafs if Mats Sundin hadn’t taken a puck in the mouth and ended up resembling an old-time movie prospector left gumming his food. But the Leafs have a great playoff mix, with toughness, some scoring and first-rate goaltending in Ed Belfour, who broke Curtis Joseph’s franchise record for victories during the season. The Flyers have many of the same qualities, including a power play that started working again, in their case the moment Tony Amonte came to town. The Flyers shared the Jennings Trophy, though Roman Cechmanek remains unconvincing as a playoff goalie. Still, the coaching will be better than it was last year for Philadelphia with Ken Hitchcock in control. The hot streak with which the Flyers ended the season should help, too, but this is a good chance for the lower seed to escape in what should be a seven-game series.

Best first-round series: Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Most likely upset advance: Washington
First-round MVP: Martin Brodeur

Western Conference | Eastern Conference

This will be a closer series than people think. The Edmonton Oilers only seemed to get better after trading Anson Carter at the deadline; give GM Kevin Lowe credit for being preemptive. Edmonton is probably the second-quickest team in the conference, and speed compensates for a talent gap. Tommy Salo does not have a sterling playoff record but is capable of winning a couple in this series. The Dallas Stars have a superb goalie in Marty Turco, who handles the puck as well as anyone ever has. Sometimes his walkabouts get him in trouble, but it is a small price to pay; you like Turco, you take the whole package. Much has been made about the injuries to Pierre Turgeon and Bill Guerin, but the Stars still should have enough firepower to get through the first round. They also have two of the five best defensemen in the league: Derian Hatcher and the perennially underappreciated Sergei Zubov, who, with Nicklas Lidstrom and Al MacInnis, is one of the top blueline thinkers in the game.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere’s evolution into a frontline goalie, with the help of Francois Allaire, is one of the bright points of the season. The Ducks also made the right move at the deadline, picking up playoff veteran Steve Thomas, who was having a miserable time in Chicago but is just the kind of postseason presence a team like Anaheim needs. The trade for Sandis Ozolinsh also gave the Ducks a legitimate threat from the point, even if he’s the type of defenseman who gives both teams a chance to win. The Red Wings are deservedly the heavy favorites. There are no weaknesses, including four balanced lines, an experienced defense that would only be bolstered if Jiri Fischer could come back, and a goalie who has had among the best first-round performances of anyone. The Ducks should push Detroit, but not too hard, which will help the defending Stanley Cup champions in subsequent rounds.

Colorado has perhaps its best group of defenseman among any of its playoff teams, with the maturation of Derek Morris. The Avalanche have one of the top three lines in the league, with presumptive MVP, Peter Forsberg, Milan Hejduk and no-longer-slumbering Alex Tanguay. Having Joe Sakic as second-line center isn’t too shabby. Every Stanley Cup champion has its underdogs, though, and Colorado’s third and fourth lines have been doing absolutely nothing. It might be enough against Minnesota, but unless the Avalanche get something from those lines at some point, they could stub their toe. The Wild is a system team, but it has a lot more going for it than strong positional play. Minnesota is fast, and speed invariably gives defensemen problems. The quickest of the lot is also the best, Marian Gaborik, who combines nicely with Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Dwayne Roloson has had an extraordinary year, perhaps the most surprising individual performance of the year, seizing the starting job in January. He has some playoff experience with the Buffalo Sabres, when the expectations were low. The expectations aren’t high now, and Roloson is capable of stealing a game again if he plays as he has, but Colorado should barge through to the second round.

St. Louis belatedly settled its goaltending issue with Chris Osgood, who has some portfolio. He’s taken way too much abuse, a factor that might have started in Detroit in the late 1990s, when Scotty Bowman never hid the fact he preferred Mike Vernon, given his level of achievement. The Blues have depth, an extraordinary pair of first defensemen in MacInnis and likely rookie of the year Barret Jackman. Chris Pronger, with his balky wrist, adds a playoff presence and a second shutdown pair. The Blues are also very well coached by Joel Quenneville. They were not playing particularly well down the stretch, but neither were the Vancouver Canucks, who, in Markus Naslund’s words, “choked” away the division on the final day of the regular season. The Canucks are still a top-heavy team with the line of Naslund, Brendan Morrison and Todd Bertuzzi, but they have received some better play of late from the likes of Trevor Linden, Matt Cooke and the Sedin twins. So much will depend on Dan Cloutier exorcising the ghost of the collapse last year against Detroit.

Best first-round series: St. Louis vs. Vancouver
Most likely upset advance: St. Louis
First-round MVP: Sergei Fedorov

Sports Illustrated senior writer Michael Farber covers the NHL for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.

 

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