Unlikely to strike out

Players, owners not as far apart as it seems on key issues

It is a simple, straightforward deal. Come Monday, the player reps from the 30 clubs will gather in Chicago with Don Fehr and their union bosses and almost certainly set a strike date. If they hold off announcing it prior to the All-Star Game then it's just a matter of time before the players go public with a date.

This sounds like ominous news, but it is not. Does it mean we'll see another August strike, like in 1994? Not necessarily.

As bad as things appear, people on both sides of the issue that we've spoken with remain fairly confident that the parties won't resort to blowing up the season like they did in 1994, costing regular-season games, the playoffs and World Series.

Word from the union is if they can get past the history of bad blood shared with the owners, the key issues are eminently solvable. And, they say, the parties aren't really far apart on the issue of revenue sharing, either.

Then again, it was kind of funny this week to see commissioner Bud Selig freeing up the owners and management folks to spew the party line, knowing of the players get-together in Chicago. Heretofore, Mr. Commissioner threatened $1 million fines if the baseball lords publicly discussed labor issues, but suddenly you had a handful out front, in almost juvenile fashion warning the players: "Don't you dare strike, cause we're not going to fold.''

This is all political gamesmanship, spin doctoring and playing to the fans. The players weren't swayed. If Fehr favors penciling in a strike date, that's what his player reps will darn sure do.

First, you have to understand the players setting a strike date has been as inevitable as a George Steinbrenner spending binge. Short of settling on a new collective bargaining agreement, the union has little choice but to threaten a strike in the second half of the season. The owners hold two cards of their own under labor law -- lockout the players or wait until after the season, then declare an impasse and implement a lockout.

So, the players will certainly call on the only real leverage they have and threaten a strike. The players set strike dates in 1981, 1985 and 1994 in situations in which the contract had expired and the owners threatened lockout.

But surely this time, the owners and players can't afford a work stoppage.

It is generally agreed the system in place isn't working properly, though you have to twist the union's arm to get an affirmative nod. The answer is greater revenue sharing between the haves and have-nots, so that more teams open the season with a chance to at least be competitive.

Both sides agree that a settlement has to come sooner rather than later, and that the labor agreement can't be pushed off to next year. And, though there's considerable debate on methodology, both the owners and players agree on the key issue of revenue sharing.

"Everybody knows what the problems are, so it's just a matter of what they're going to do to solve them,'' a veteran big-league manager told us. "You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that there needs to be some kind of revenue sharing, so there can be some kind of competitive balance. Not this mess we got now.

"It's not even baseball anymore. Just a whole bunch guys out there in uniforms trying to play. It's nothing but a bunch of guys running around in tight pants.''

The problem is centered on a lack of competitive balance. You also have an ethical issue involving steroids. Former players worry that the game -- not to mention their accomplishments -- have gotten skewed by the willingness to overlook what some describe as widespread steroid use by current players. So far, the union has balked at drug testing, but its position could soften as prominent players like Curt Schilling and Tom Glavine continue to speak out against performance-enhancing drugs.

Clearly, Selig and Fehr get along about as well as Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent, but they best lighten up on the bluster and move toward consensus on the key issues. Consider:

• Revenue Sharing: Ownership is pushing a jump from 20 percent to 50 percent in the local revenue shared (local broadcast revenues, gate receipts and concession/merchandise sales). The union proposes an increase to 22.5 percent.

  The owners propose a so-called straight pool, which evenly splits the shared revenue (currently about $253 million) equally among all teams. The union favors a split-pool, with the fiscally weakest clubs receiving a greater share.

  Again, the percentages are obviously open to negotiation and while the methods are different, the sides aren't that far apart on the amount of money they want to move into the revenue sharing pool.

• Luxury Tax: Ownership proposed a 50 percent tax on payroll dollars teams spend in excess of $98 million annually, but they're now suggesting a lower percentage that would escalate to their target 50 percent. The union remains opposed to what it perceives as a salary cap.

The sides aren't as divided as it may seem, but the problem is getting to the focal point. The players have tremendous distrust of the owners, dating back better than a decade to when the owners were found guilty of collusion. More recently, Fehr thought he was close to a deal with Paul Beeston, Selig's assistant, until his surprise resignation last year. And the union remains ticked at Selig for trying to pull a fast one with his attempt to contract two teams last offseason.

Ironically, when Beeston was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame last month, Fehr attended the ceremonies. No one from Major League Baseball showed up.

How soon Fehr and Selig can meet on a deal remains to be seen. But someone close to the negotiations suggested to us that a deal could be struck in two weeks time if both sides were ready to settle the thing.

So maybe setting a strike deadline is what's needed to get everyone moving in that direction.

Mike Fish is a senior writer for CNNSI.com.

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