Flim-flammed in Florida

Loria's move south looking shakier all the time

Don't you just love watching rich-guy owners catching it on the chin? Check out Jeffrey Loria down in South Florida. Everyone thought the guy pulled a smart one back in February, unloading the Montreal Expos on the 29 other owners and putting his U.S. dollars on the Marlins.

Now, you look around and the Expos are in the wild-card hunt under the grizzled tutelage of Frank Robinson. You could argue the Marlins have a shot, too -- but instead of taking up the challenge, the Fish are cutting bait, shipping free-agent-to-be Cliff Floyd to Montreal and righty Ryan Dempster to the Cincinnati Reds. And so as the vultures continue to circle, the Marlins are in a salary dump mode, dangling the likes of Brad Penny, Derek Lee, Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson.

Funny thing is, the Marlins had a deal moving both Floyd and Dempster to Montreal before the All-Star break, but Major League Baseball wouldn't go for its Expos taking on another $5 million in salary. This odd relationship is just another of the conflicts running through baseball these days, starting with a club owner, Bud Selig, sitting as commissioner (Oh yeah, right, the Brewers are in his daughter's name).

Another interesting twist is, as part of Loria's deal to purchase the Marlins, Major League Baseball agreeing to pick up the tab for his hiring a "stadium revenue guru'' to help jack team revenue. Team president David Samson, Loria's stepson, says the not-yet-hired specialist will focus on making a go of it at Pro Player Stadium, but baseball people insist the only way the Marlins can survive long-term in South Florida is with a new stadium.

Samson won't discuss how big a tab baseball agreed to pick up, saying only, "When we negotiated the sale of the Expos and the purchase of the Marlins, it is hundreds of pages of documents -- and this was just part of the negotiated deal."

OK, but you have to wonder if Loria didn't jump the gun in his hasty flight south. As it turns out, the Expos didn't get contracted as threatened last winter and there's no guarantee they're gone next season -- although it's almost a certainty they won't be calling Montreal home.

This contraction business figures to be in the news again, perhaps as early as Monday, when arbitrator Shyam Das is expected to rule on the union's grievance that the owners violated the previous labor contract by attempting to fold the Expos and Minnesota Twins. The owners are confident of a favorable ruling, but even if they were to contract next season they couldn't take out just a single team because of the potential scheduling nightmares. They'd have to find at least a dancer partner, and despite what assurances Loria got, you wonder if they wouldn't eye his Marlins.

According to Samson, the Marlins project to "lose north of $20 million" this summer. The payroll figures to jump from $42 million to nearly $70 million next season, so that's why you'll see the club furiously unloading players eligible for salary arbitration, pending free agents and those with fat contracts between now and the July 31 trade deadline.

In one breath, Samson says the club needs to create a buzz that only winning can bring. That's how you put fannies in the seats, he says. But, hey, the dots fail to connect if you're selling off your better players at midseason.

"Right now, we're not marketing performance," Samson explains. "What we're marketing is -- what is the right word? -- we are marketing permanence, not performance. Meaning permanence in this market.

"Listen, there are teams -- the Cubs haven't won a World Series [in 93 years] and nobody talks about them leaving. Or the Red Sox since [1918]. It is not that performance guarantees permanence at all. Again, from my perspective it is more important to build our brand and stress the permanence and commitment to this market, and prove to people you are right and genuine about staying in Florida, which we are.''

That's all fine, but South Florida isn't Boston or Chicago. There's no real passion for spectator sports. Two decades ago, the Dolphins were a hot ticket, but they're not playing to sellouts. Nor is Pat Riley's NBA club or hockey's Panthers. Even University of Miami football, one of the top college programs, plays to a half-empty Orange Bowl unless Florida State or some other marquee rival is on the schedule.

When Loria & Co. showed up with other snowbirds Feb. 16, the day before the start of spring training, the club had sold fewer than 300 season tickets. They did an admirable job building it up to nearly 4,000, but that is still the fewest in franchise history. And an abnormal summer rainy season, even by South Florida standards, has only hurt walk-up sales.

Still, unlike Montreal, the South Florida market offers a slight glimmer of hope.

"Even if we had succeeded in putting people in the seats in Montreal we wouldn't have been able make it work, because the other economic conditions weren't right from corporate revenue, sponsorship revenue, exchange rate, broadcast revenue -- all the other normal baseball streams,'' Samson says. "Even ticket revenues were not enough to sustain a team.

"In Florida, the model works perfectly once we get past all this concern about whether the team is leaving, once people realize that the past four years are finished and now it is time to fall in love with the Marlins again.''

What Samson won't utter is a word about stadium plans. The local community has beaten down past proposals, though a baseball-only stadium with a retractable roof may ultimately be what's needed to save the Marlins. And the lease Loria inherited at Pro Player Stadium is rather unattractive, especially since the Marlins receive no suite revenue.

If you look to Florida's two struggling baseball franchises, you'd likely say it makes make more sense to go after the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who are in worse financial shape. The catch is that the state itself is tied to the long-term lease for Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, and Selig is shrewd enough not to pick a fight with Gov. Jeb Bush.

So what could make the Marlins a prime target for contraction is their lease expires after next season, with the club holding a series of one-year options extending through 2009.

Hmmm. Since Loria has played the owners' game once before, hey, maybe Selig will offer him his beloved Brewers this time.

Mike Fish is a senior writer for CNNSI.com.

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