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Junior mint Beyond the Box Score: Chasing Aaron
Posted: Friday April 14, 2000 05:26 AM
Ken Griffey Jr. became the youngest player to hit 400 career home runs Monday at Coors Field in the Reds' 7-5 loss to Colorado. At 30 years, 141 days, Griffey beat the previous mark set by Jimmie Foxx, who was 107 days older when he set the standard in 1938. Junior's 400th came 11 years to the day after his first major league home run. Only eight other men have cranked out 400 home runs over an 11-year span -- Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Willie Mays, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt and Mark McGwire. That's an impressive group, but only Griffey did it from the start of his career. So clearly time is on Junior's side when you begin to assess his chances of breaking Hank Aaron's career home run record. Noted number-cruncher Bill James and the folks at STATS, Inc. have devised a formula that factors in a player's age and past performance to estimate his chances of reaching a certain goal. Take a look at the list of players given at least a five percent chance of surpassing Hank Aaron's career homer mark of 755.
Though Mark McGwire has hit 50-plus for four consecutive years, he is 36 and still 230 home runs shy of Aaron. How long can he continue at such a torrid pace? Two more 60+ homer season will put him about 100 short and I don't see McGwire playing into his forties for an individual accomplishment. Also, injuries have slowed McGwire in the past and his back is acting up again, so that might cost him the record. Still, when he's healthy, he's a home run hitting machine, so I'm not counting him out. Sometime after the All-Star break, Sammy Sosa will be halfway to Hank. Sosa never hit more than 40 homers in season until he exploded onto the scene the past two years. I don't think he has eight more 50+ homer seasons in him. I know playing in Wrigley will help, but he's a long shot. Juan Gonzalez is only a month older than Griffey, but he has two things working against him: his health and his ballpark. Gonzalez has played 150 games in a season just twice, so he needs to avoid the disabled list. And playing in spacious Comerica Park won't help him hit 50 home runs in a season -- something he's never done. As for Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, it's too soon to speculate. ARod will probably be the first shortstop since Ernie Banks to hit 500 home runs, but 755 is another story. Ramirez is more of an RBI-guy than a home run hitter in my book, but he's just entering his prime so who knows at this point. Griffey has averaged 36 home runs a season and he needs 355 more to surpass Hammerin' Hank. So he needs ten more years at his current pace, right? Yes and no. Griffey hit just 87 home runs in his first four season (16, 22, 22 and 27), but he has hit 209 in the last four seasons (49, 56, 56, 48). Like Aaron, consistency is his biggest asset, so I don't see why Junior can't put up 50 for another four years, which would put him around 600 at age 34. Bear it mind that hitting home runs will continue to be much easier in this era than it was in Hank's time because of expansion, small parks and a smaller strike zone. Looking into my crystal ball, I see Griffey catching Aaron sometime in 2007. He'll only be 37 then, so he could even hit 800 home runs.
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