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 Dolphins should win a close one
Posted: Monday October 04, 1999 11:28 AM
I spent seven seasons in the AFC East, where divisional play is competitive and the margin of victory is slim. That will be the case in this Monday night matchup between Miami and Buffalo. The home field advantage has been a factor in this intense rivalry. Miami has won five straight in south Florida including last year's playoff game. Another big key to the Dolphin success over the Bills at home is their ability to get to the Bills QB. In the two victories at home Jimmie Johnson's defense sacked the Bills 11 times to just 3 sacks for the Bills. In the Dolphin loss in Buffalo, they could only manage one sack.
The Bills will need Bruce Smith to be a force, something that hasn't really happened in recent games. Left tackle Richmond Webb has done a good job on Smith. Last year, Marino threw 87 passes in the three games against Buffalo and Smith only managed 1 sack. Expect Buffalo to line Bruce up over other offensive linemen for a better matchup. The problem is that the other Dolphin linemen are playing very well. Miami has yet to give up a sack. The game will be close, and the lead may change four or five times as it did in the playoff game. Doug Flutie knows as well as Dan Marino how to bring teams back. Doug's big playmaker is WR Eric Moulds. Last year Eric saved his best for the Dolphins. In three games, he caught 17 passes for 380 yards and 3 TDs. The Dolphins led the AFC in interceptions last year with 29, but Moulds' 22 yards per catch against the Fish is off the charts. When Miami has to come from behind, expect Dan to look for Tony Martin. Martin can bring the big play to the table, too, especially on Monday nights. Both teams want to run the ball, but I like Miami's chances better than Buffalo. Antowain Smith is a good back, but the matchups of guard Dusty Ziegler and tackle Robert Hicks on Tim Bowens and Trace Armstrong favor the Dolphins. When Miami wants to run it, Jabbar has had success against the Bills. Last year, his 67 carries for 267 yards and two touchdowns kept the defense honest. This year, Cecil Collins gets added into the mix and the run-pass ratio should be balanced. Finally, field goals have been the difference. Last year up in Buffalo, Steve Christie kicked three in the forth quarter for a Buffalo win. In the regular season game in Florida, Olindo Mare had to kick two second-half field goals to win the game. And in the playoff game, Mare kicked 3 field goals, which was the margin of victory. Buffalo is a playoff caliber team and should win at least 10 games this year, but Monday night probably will not be one of them. Marino and company have the home field, the depth at pass-rusher, and their sights set on something bigger than making the playoffs. I like Miami in a close one. Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years in the NFL as a coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/SI. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.
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