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Raiders on the run

Oakland offense difference-maker in AFC title game

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When the NFL's top defense meets the NFL's top rushing offense, there should be one heck of a war on the field. When the Ravens and Raiders meet, it'll be a true test of wills.

Don't look for Oakland head coach Jon Gruden to flinch. Gruden started the game last week against the Dolphins' defense by running the ball right at the strength of the unit. I suspect he'll do it again against the Ravens. This week, though, the Raiders will be up against 700 pounds in Tony Siragusa and Sam Adams, not to mention the NFL's best middle linebacker, Ray Lewis.

I expect Oakland to work the short passing game inside and Tim Brown is a master of reading zone coverages and running the right route. Rich Gannon and his receivers need to be accurate because Lewis will eventually be there to pound the receiver or even worse get the ball back with the game in the balance.

Video Click the image to launch the clip    The Ravens defense is vulnerable to short pass patterns. NFC Championship Pat Kirwan: Both coaches in this NFC Championship Game pulled off very bold moves to get their clubs to this point. Dennis Green got rid of two veteran quarterbacks and handed the Vikings over to an unproven rookie, and Jim Fassel put his professional reputation on the line when he guaranteed the Giants would make the playoffs.

Clearly the Ravens' defense against the Raiders' offense is the marquee matchup, but the game may be decided on the other side of the ball. Most defensive coaches I spoke with said make Jamal Lewis stop and cut back and he's not the same guy. When he's allowed to stay front side and roll downhill with his power, he's a problem.

The tight ends on both teams will be key to watch. Shannon Sharpe can and will line up anywhere as Baltimore looks for the best matchup. Switch routes from the slot can cause coverage breakdowns. Oakland's Rickey Dudley has had an off year and didn't catch a ball against the Dolphins but this week he'll square-off against backup safety Corey Harris and Gruden will be more than tempted to take advantage of this matchup.

This will be a very tight game that will come down to the quarterbacks. Last week, we never found out what Trent Dilfer could do under pressure because Baltimore's special teams and defense scored twice to break the game open in the second half. This week he may have to put points on the board.

That being said, I like the Raiders to go to the Super Bowl.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout, and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Chat with Pat each Wednesday at 1 p.m.

 

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